An Attempted Explanation for the Discrepancy between Internal and External Errors in Statistical Adjustments

It is shown that underparameterization of models used in statistical adjustments is at least in part responsible for the discrepancies between so-called internal and external rms errors (standard deviations), frequently encountered in derived sets of statistical parameters.     

Experimental study of igneous and sedimentary apatite dissolution: Control of pH, distance from equilibrium, and temperature on dissolution rates

Apatite dissolution experiments were conducted using both a fluidized bed and stirred tank reactor over a range of pH, temperature, solution saturation state, and on non-carbonated and carbonated apatite compositions: igneous fluorapatite (FAP) and sedimentary carbonate fluorapatite (CFA), respectively. From 2 <pH <6, the rate of release from dissolution of all apatite components [calcium (Ca), phosphorus (P), and fluoride (F)] increased with decreasing pH for FAP. From 6 < pH < 8.5, the FAP dissolution rate is pH independent. Measuring apatite dissolution rates at pH > 8.5 were not possible due to detection limits of the analytical techniques used in this study and the high insolubility of FAP. For the CFA compositions studied, the dissolution rate decreased with increasing pH from 4 < pH < 7. During early stages of the dissolution reaction for both FAP and CFA, mineral components were released in non-stoichiometric ratios with reacted solution ratios of dissolved Ca:P and Ca:F being greater than mineral stoichiometric ratios, suggesting that Ca was preferentially released compared to P and F from the mineral structure during the early stages of dissolution. An increase in reacted solution pH accompanies this early elevated release of Ca. As the dissolution reaction proceeded to steady state, dissolution became congruent. When normalized to BET measured surface area, FAP dissolved faster from 4 < pH < 7 compared to CFA. The apparent Arrhenius activation energy (E_a) of FAP dissolution over the temperature range of 25-55°C at pH = 3.0, I = 0.1, and pCO₂ = 0 is 8.3 ± 0.2 kcal mol⁻¹. Both the apparent exchange of solution H⁺ for solid-bound Ca at low pH in the early stage of dissolution and the E_a of dissolution suggest a surface and not a diffusion controlled dissolution reaction for FAP and CFA. The degree of undersaturation of the solution, ΔG_R, with respect to FAP was important in determining the dissolution rate. At pH = 3.0, I = 0.1, and pCO₂ = 0, the dissolution rate of FAP was ∼ 5× greater in the far-from-equilibrium region compared to the near-equilibrium slope region.A simple apatite weathering model incorporating the experimental results from this study was constructed, and numerical calculations suggest that during the Phanerozoic both the surface area of igneous rock available for weathering and the average global temperature were important factors in determining the P weathering flux from apatite dissolution. It is possible that elevated global temperatures coupled with relatively high surface area of igneous rock during the early- to mid-Paleozoic resulted in elevated P weathering fluxes, which along with climatic evolutionary pressures of the Neoproterozoic, facilitated the radiation of multicellular organisms, large-scale phosphorite deposition, and abundance of calcium phosphate shelled organisms during the early Cambrian.     

Emplacement age and thermal footprint of the diamondiferous Ellendale E9 lamproite pipe, Western Australia

The diamondiferous Ellendale 9 (E9) pipe is a funnel-shaped maar-diatreme volcano consisting of inward-dipping tuff sequences intruded by lamproite plugs and dykes. The host rocks for the E9 pipe are Permian sandstones. The multiple lithological contacts exposed within the mined maar volcano provide a natural laboratory in which to study the effect of volcanic processes on U–Th–Pb–He systematics. Zircon from the regional sandstone and E9 lamproite display a bimodal distribution of ages on (U–Th)/He–U/Pb plots. The zircon U/Pb ages for the E9 pipe (n?=?52) range from 440 to 2,725 Ma, while the cluster of (U–Th)/He ages for the lamproite dyke zircon indicate that dyke emplacement occurred at 20.6?±?2.8 Ma, concordant with a maximum emplacement age of about ≤22 Ma from phlogopite ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar. These ages indicate a xenocrystic origin for the zircon entrained in the E9 dyke. The U/Pb ages of detrital zircon from the regional sandstone host (373–3,248 Ma; n?=?41) are indistinguishable from those of the lamproite zircon xenocrysts, whereas the detrital zircon in the host sandstone yield (U–Th)/He ages from 260 to 1,500 Ma. A thermochronology traverse across the E9 lamproite dyke reveals that the zircon (U–Th)/He ages in the host sandstone have not been significantly thermally reset during dyke emplacement, even at the contact. The capability of the zircon (U–Th)/He method to distinguish deep, mantle source lithologies from upper crustal source lithologies could be used in geochemical exploration for diamonds. Pre-screening of detrital samples using etching and helium assay methods will improve the efficiency and decrease the cost of greenfields exploration.     

Stress deformation properties of rock and rock discontinuities

The results of an extensive literature survey on the stress deformation properties of rock materials and rock discontinuities are summarized. The results show that: (1) for rock tested under uniaxial conditions, the range of modulus is from about 1 to 100 GN/m², and the Poisson's ratio range is from 0.02 to 0.73 (0.46 if dilatant values are excluded) with an average value of 0.20; (2) for rock tested under triaxial conditions, the effects of nonlinearity and stress-dependency of the rock modulus are minor with hard, crystalline or homogeneous rock of low porosity, but are significant in porous, clastic or closely jointed rock; (3) anisotropy of the rock modulus is demonstrated mainly by variations in the modulus number or initial stiffness, while the nonlinearity and stress-dependency parameters are fairly constant with sample orientation; (4) nonlinearity and stress-dependency of the rock Poisson's ratio may be significant depending upon the magnitude of stress changes imposed, with the nonlinearity being more significant; and (5) limited data on rock discontinuities indicate that nonlinearity and stress-dependency effects may be quite large.     

Sensitivity of ENSO characteristics to a new interactive flux correction scheme in a coupled GCM

A fast coupled global climate model (CGCM) is used to study the sensitivity of El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) characteristics to a new interactive flux correction scheme. With no flux correction applied our CGCM reveals typical bias in the background state: for instance, the cold tongue in the tropical east Pacific becomes too cold, thus degrading atmospheric sensitivity to variations of sea surface temperature (SST). Sufficient atmospheric sensitivity is essential to ENSO. Our adjustment scheme aims to sustain atmospheric sensitivity by counteracting the SST drift in the model. With reduced bias in the forcing of the atmosphere, the CGCM displays ENSO-type variability that otherwise is absent. The adjustment approach employs a one-way anomaly coupling from the ocean to the atmosphere: heat fluxes seen by the ocean are based on full SST, while heat fluxes seen by the atmosphere are based on anomalies of SST. The latter requires knowledge of the model??s climatological SST field, which is accumulated interactively in the spin-up phase (??training??). Applying the flux correction already during the training period (by utilizing the evolving SST climatology) is necessary for efficiently reducing the bias. The combination of corrected fluxes seen by the atmosphere and uncorrected fluxes seen by the ocean implies a restoring mechanism that counteracts the bias and allows for long stable integrations in our CGCM. A suite of sensitivity runs with varying training periods is utilized to study the effect of different levels of bias in the background state on important ENSO properties. Increased duration of training amplifies the coupled sensitivity in our model and leads to stronger amplitudes and longer periods of the Nino3.4 index, increased emphasis of warm events that is reflected in enhanced skewness, and more pronounced teleconnections in the Pacific. Furthermore, with longer training durations we observe a mode switch of ENSO in our model that closely resembles the observed mode switch related to the mid-1970s ??climate shift??.     

The importance of sewage effluent discharge in the export of dissolved organic carbon from U.K. rivers

The flux of fluvial carbon from the terrestrial biosphere to the world's oceans is known to be an important component of the global carbon cycle, but within this pathway, the flux and return of carbon to the river network via sewage effluent has not been quantified. In this study, monitoring data from 2000 to 2016 for the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration, biochemical oxygen demand, and chemical oxygen demand of the final effluent of sewage treatment works from across England were examined to assess the amount of DOC contributing to national‐scale fluvial fluxes of carbon. The study shows that the median concentration of DOC in final effluent was 9.4 compared with 4.8 mg C/L for all surface waters for the United Kingdom over the study period and that the DOC in final effluent significantly declined over the study period from 11.0 to 6.4 mg C/L. Rivers receiving sewage effluent showed a significant, on average 19%, increase in DOC concentration downstream of sewage discharges. At the scale of the United Kingdom, the flux of DOC in final effluent was 31 ktonnes C/year with a per capita export of 0.55 kg C/year and compared with an average annual flux of DOC from the United Kingdom of 859 ktonnes C/year, that is, only 3.6% of national‐scale flux. The lability of this DOC was limited, with only 7.4% loss of final effluent DOC concentration over in‐stream residence times of up to 5 days. The direct decline in DOC concentration from sewage treatment works was not large enough on its own to explain the declines observed in DOC concentration in U.K. rivers at their tidal limit.     

EVOLUTIONARY CHARACTERISTICS OF LAKES AND PALAEOCLIMATIC UNDULATION IN THE Q AID AM BASIN,CHINA

The Qaidam Basin is. a tectonically controlled depression at 2700 m altitude on the northern margin of the Tibet Plateau. A succession of Neogene clastic sediments indicates lake depocentre migration from NW to SE. Towards late Pliocene, evaporative conditions developed with formation of gypsum, halite, celestite, mirabilite and bloedite. Continued deformation through Pleistocene developed a series of NW- SE trending domes and troughs. This setting continued to exert a controlling influence on basin and brine evolution and the progressive development of sulfate to chloride brines as, dry conditions intensified in late Pleistocene, at the end of which, extensive flat floors were formed in Dalangtan, Qarhan and other playas.The, model, which was set up based on the synthetic analyses, divides the fluctuating palaeoclimate since 750ka,B. P. into 11 warm and humid stages and 10 dry and cold stages. The water of the lakes evaporated during the dry-cold periods and were freshened during the warm-humid periods     

Trace-element and Sr,Nd, Pb,and O isotopic composition of Pliocene and Quaternary alkali basalts of the Patagonian Plateau lavas of southernmost South America

The Pliocene and Quaternary Patagonian alkali basalts of southernmost South America can be divided into two groups. The cratonic basalts erupted in areas of Cenozoic plateau volcanism and continental sedimentation and show considerable variation in ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr (0.70316 to 0.70512), ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd (_Nd) and ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb ratios (18.26 to 19.38, 15.53 to 15.68, and 38.30 to 39.23, respectively). These isotopic values are within the range of oceanic island basalts, as are the Ba/La, Ba/Nb, La/Nb, K/Rb, and Cs/Rb ratios of the cratonic basalts. In contrast, the transitional basalts, erupted along the western edge of the outcrop belt of the Pliocene and Quaternary plateau lavas in areas that were the locus of earlier Cenozoic Andean orogenic arc colcanism, have a much more restricted range of isotopic composition which can be approximated by ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr=0.7039±0.0004, _Nd, ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=18.60±0.08, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=15.60±0.01, and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=38.50±0.10. These isotopic values are similar to those of Andean orogenic are basalts and, compared to the cratonic basalts, are displaced to higher ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr at a given ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd and to higher ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb at a given ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb. The transitional basalts also have Ba/La, Ba/Nb, La/Nb, and Cs/Rb ratios higher than the cratonic and oceanic island basalts, although not as high as Andean orogenic are basalts. In contrast to the radiogenic isotopes, ¹⁸O values for both groups of the Patagonian alkali basalts are indistinguishable and are more restricted than the range reported for Andean orogenic are basalts. Whole rock ¹⁸O values calculated from mineral separates for both groups range from 5.3 to 6.5, while measured whole rock ¹⁸O values range from 5.1 to 7.8. The trace element and isotopic data suggest that decreasing degrees of partial melting in association with lessened significance of subducted slabderived components are fundamental factors in the west to east transition from arc to back-arc volcanism in southern South America. The cratonic basalts do not contain the slab-derived components that impart the higher Ba/La, Ba/Nb, La/Nb, Cs/Rb, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr at a given ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb at a given ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, and ¹⁸O to Andean orogenic arc basalts. Instead, these basalts are formed by relatively low degrees of partial melting of heterogeneous lower continental lithosphere and/or asthenosphere, probably due to thermal and mechanical pertubation of the mantle in response to subduction of oceanic lithosphere below the western margin of the continent. The transitional basalts do contain components added to their source region by either (1) active input of slab-derived components in amounts smaller than the contribution to the mantle below the arc and/or with lower Ba/La, Ba/Nb, La/Nb, and Cs/Rb ratios than below the arc due to progressive downdip dehydration of the subducted slab; or (2) subarc source region contamination processes which affected the mantle source of the transitional basalts earlier in the Cenozoic.     

Understanding and Reducing False Alarms in Observational Fog Prediction

The reduction in visibility that accompanies fog events presents a hazard to human safety and navigation. However, accurate fog prediction remains elusive, with numerical methods often unable to capture the conditions of fog formation, and observational methods having high false-alarm rates in order to obtain high hit rates of prediction. In this work, 5 years of observations from the Cabauw Experimental Site for Atmospheric Research are used to further investigate how false alarms may be reduced using the statistical method for diagnosing radiation-fog events from observations developed by Menut et al. (Boundary-Layer Meteorol 150:277–297, 2014). The method is assessed for forecast lead times of 1–6 h and implementing four optimization schemes to tune the prediction for different needs, compromising between confidence and risk. Prediction scores improve significantly with decreased lead time, with the possibility of achieving a hit rate of over 90% and a false-alarm rate of just 13%. In total, a further 31 combinations of predictive variables beyond the original combination are explored (including mostly, e.g., variables related to moisture and static stability of the boundary layer). Little change to the prediction scores indicates any appropriate combination of variables that measure saturation, turbulence, and near-surface cooling can be used. The remaining false-alarm periods are manually assessed, identifying the lack of spatio–temporal information (such as the temporal evolution of the local conditions and the advective history of the airmass) as the ultimate limiting factor in the methodology’s predictive capabilities. Future observational studies are recommended that investigate the near-surface evolution of fog and the role of non-local heterogeneity on fog formation.