Impact of climate variability on an east Australian bay

The climate along the subtropical east coast of Australia is changing significantly. Rainfall has decreased by about 50 mm per decade and temperature increased by about 0.1 °C per decade during the last 50 years. These changes are likely to impact upon episodes of hypersalinity and the persistence of inverse circulations, which are often characteristic features of the coastal zone in the subtropics and are controlled by the balance between evaporation, precipitation, and freshwater discharge. In this study, observations and results from a general ocean circulation model are used to investigate how current climate trends have impacted upon the physical characteristics of the Hervey Bay, Australia. During the last two decades, mean precipitation in Hervey Bay deviates by 13% from the climatology (1941–2000). In the same time, the river discharge is reduced by 23%. In direct consequence, the frequency of hypersaline and inverse conditions has increased. Moreover, the salinity flux out of the bay has increased and the evaporation induced residual circulation has accelerated. Contrary to the drying trend, the occurrence of severe rainfalls, associated with floods, leads to short-term fluctuations in the salinity. These freshwater discharge events are used to estimate a typical response time for the bay.     

Do shorebirds graze down zoobenthic biomass at the Banc d'Arguin tidal flats in Mauritania?

The 500 km² of tidal flats at the Banc d'Arguin, Mauritania, are a wintering site for over 2 million shorebirds, making this one of the areas with the highest density of shorebirds in the world. In earlier studies, it was found that these huge numbers of birds are dependent on a rather low biomass of benthic animals. To explain this paradoxical situation, we hypothesized that the earlier assessments of biomass in late winter and early spring do not reflect a year-round situation. Benthic biomass may be high when the birds arrive in autumn to be subsequently grazed down in the course of winter. To test this hypothesis, we have determined benthic biomass in September 1988. The result has been compared with a biomass value obtained in February–April 1986 with the same methods and at the same stations. These two biomass values do not differ significantly; so our hypothesis has to be rejected. It has to be admitted, however, that our experimental design cannot discern between differences due to the year of sampling and those due to the season.     

Violence and criminal order: the case of Ciudad Juarez

ABSTRACT

Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, suffered an explosion of criminal violence between 2008 and 2012 that cost the lives of more than ten thousand people, earning it notoriety as the world’s “murder capital.” Just a few years later, however, levels of violence had dropped back to pre-2008 levels, decreasing by more than 85 percent. Existing political, economic, and sociological theories provide compelling narratives about the origins of Mexico’s drug-related violence, but have much more difficulty explaining why violence might suddenly decrease to normal levels again. They also fail to explain how violence itself shapes mechanisms of formal and informal order, often leaving institutional legacies that can be both negative and positive. Based on research conducted since 2008, this paper argues that criminal violence in Ciudad Juarez, while initially begetting only more violence, gradually reconstituted the criminal order in such a way that peaceful interaction among competing criminal groups became possible.     

A New Way that Planets Can Affect the Sun

We derive a perturbation inside a rotating star that occurs when the star is accelerated by orbiting bodies. If a fluid element has rotational and orbital components of angular momentum with respect to the inertially fixed point of a planetary system that are of opposite sign, then the element may have potential energy that could be released by a suitable flow. We demonstrate the energy with a very simple model in which two fluid elements of equal mass exchange positions, calling to mind a turbulent field or natural convection. The exchange releases potential energy that, with a minor exception, is available only in the hemisphere facing the barycenter of the planetary system. We calculate its strength and spatial distribution for the strongest case (“vertical”) and for weaker horizontal cases whose motions are all perpendicular to gravity. The vertical cases can raise the kinetic energy of a few well positioned convecting elements in the Sun’s envelope by a factor ≤7. This is the first physical mechanism by which planets can have a nontrivial effect on internal solar motions. Occasional small mass exchanges near the solar center and in a recently proposed mixed shell centered at 0.16R _s would carry fresh fuel to deeper levels. This would cause stars like the Sun with appropriate planetary systems to burn somewhat more brightly and have shorter lifetimes than identical stars without planets. The helioseismic sound speed and the long record of sunspot activity offer several bits of evidence that the effect may have been active in the Sun’s core, its envelope, and in some vertically stable layers. Additional proof will require direct evidence from helioseismology or from transient waves on the solar surface.     

The Mid‐Brunhes Event and West Antarctic ice sheet stability

The complex cyclical nature of Pleistocene climate, driven by the evolving orbital configuration of the Earth, is well known but not well understood. A major climatic transition took place at the Mid‐Brunhes Event (MBE), ca. 430 ka ago after which the amplitude of the ca.100 ka climate oscillations increased, with substantially warmer interglacials, including periods warmer than present. Recent modelling has indicated that while the timing of these warmer‐than‐present transient (WPT) events is consistent with southern warming due to a deglaciation‐forced slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the magnitude of warming requires a local amplification, for which a candidate is the feedback of significant West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) retreat. We here extend this argument, based on the absence of WPTs in the early ice core record (450–800 ka ago), to hypothesize that the MBE could be a manifestation of decreased WAIS stability, triggered by ongoing subglacial erosion. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reconstruction of the most recent volcanic eruptions from the Valles caldera,New Mexico

Products of the latest eruptions from the Valles caldera, New Mexico, consist of the El Cajete Pyroclastic Beds and Battleship Rock Ignimbrite, a sequence of pyroclastic fall and density current deposits erupted at ~ 55 ka, capped by the later Banco Bonito Flow erupted at ~ 40 ka, and collectively named the East Fork Member of the Valles Rhyolite. The stratigraphy of the East Fork Member has been the subject of conflicting interpretations in the past; a long-running investigation of short-lived exposures over a period of many years enables us to present a more complete event stratigraphy for these eruptions than has hitherto been possible. The volume of rhyolitic magma erupted during the 55 ka event may have been more than 10 km³, and for the 40 ka event can be estimated with rather more confidence at 4 km³. During the earlier event, plinian eruptions dispersed fallout pumice over much of the Valles caldera, the southern Jemez Mountains, and the Rio Grande rift. We infer a fallout thickness of several decimeters at the site of the city of Santa Fe, and significant ash fall in eastern New Mexico. In contrast, pyroclastic density currents were channeled within the caldera moat and southwestward into the head of Cañon de San Diego, the principal drainage from the caldera. Simultaneous (or rapidly alternating) pyroclastic fallout and density current activity characterized the ~ 55 ka event, with density currents becoming more frequent as the eruption progressed through two distinct stages separated by a brief hiatus. One early pyroclastic surge razed a forest in the southern caldera moat, in a similar manner to the initial blast of the May 18, 1980 eruption of Mt. St. Helens. Ignimbrite outflow from the caldera through the drainage notch may have been restricted in runout distance due to steep, rugged topography in this vicinity promoting mixing between flows and air, and the formation of phoenix clouds. Lavas erupted during both the ~ 55 and ~ 40 ka events were largely confined to the caldera moat. Any future rhyolitic eruptions of similar magnitude in the southern or western parts of the Valles caldera will likely affect similar areas.     

Silicon X-ray line emission from solar flares and active regions

New observations of solar flare and active region X-ray spectra obtained with the Columbia University instrument on OSO-8 are presented and discussed. The high sensitivity of the graphite crystal panel has allowed both line and continuum spectra to be observed with moderate spectral resolution. Observations with higher spectral resolution have been made with a panel of pentaerythritol crystals. Twenty-nine lines between 1.5 and 7.0 Å have been resolved and identified, including several dielectronic recombination satellite lines to Si xiv and Si xiii lines which have been observed for the first time. It has been found that thermal continuum models specified by single values of temperature and emission measure have fitted the data adequately, there being good agreement with the values of these parameters derived from line intensity ratios.     

What is the horizontal scale of the 5-min oscillations?

If wrong, all the early reports of a small horizontal scale ( 2000 km) for the 5-min oscillations may be due to unfortunate similarities between the velocity and overturning time of the solar granule convection and the corresponding velocity and period typical of the oscillations. A large horizontal scale ( 30000 km) for the oscillations seems consistent with the old data and almost required by more recent measurements. The large scales recently measured would imply that a sizeable fraction of the solar volume is involved in the oscillation and would cast some doubt on all the old theories of the 5-min oscillations which were based on plane parallel atmospheres.