Finding the most appropriate precipitation probability distribution for stochastic weather generation and hydrological modelling in Nordic watersheds

Six precipitation probability distributions (exponential, Gamma, Weibull, skewed normal, mixed exponential and hybrid exponential/Pareto distributions) are evaluated on their ability to reproduce the statistics of the original observed time series. Each probability distribution is also indirectly assessed by looking at its ability to reproduce key hydrological variables after being used as inputs to a lumped hydrological model. Data from 24 weather stations and two watersheds (Chute‐du‐Diable and Yamaska watersheds) in the province of Quebec (Canada) were used for this assessment. Various indices or statistics, such as the mean, variance, frequency distribution and extreme values are used to quantify the performance in simulating the precipitation and discharge. Performance in reproducing key statistics of the precipitation time series is well correlated to the number of parameters of the distribution function, and the three‐parameter precipitation models outperform the other models, with the mixed exponential distribution being the best at simulating daily precipitation. The advantage of using more complex precipitation distributions is not as clear‐cut when the simulated time series are used to drive a hydrological model. Although the advantage of using functions with more parameters is not nearly as obvious, the mixed exponential distribution appears nonetheless as the best candidate for hydrological modelling. The implications of choosing a distribution function with respect to hydrological modelling and climate change impact studies are also discussed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of strong network modifiers on Fe<Superscript>3+</Superscript>/Fe<Superscript>2+</Superscript> in silicate melts: an experimental study

The effect of CaO, Na₂O, and K₂O on ferric/ferrous ratio in model multicomponent silicate melts was investigated in the temperature range 1450–1550?°C at 1-atm total pressure in air. It is demonstrated that the addition of these network modifier cations results in an increase of Fe³⁺/Fe²⁺ ratio. The influence of network modifier cations on the ferric/ferrous ratio increases in the order Ca?<?Na?<?K. Some old controversial conceptions concerning the effect of potassium on Fe³⁺/Fe²⁺ ratio in simple model liquids are critically evaluated. An empirical equation is proposed to predict the ferric/ferrous ratio in SiO₂–TiO₂–Al₂O₃–FeO–Fe₂O₃–MgO–CaO–Na₂O–K₂O–P₂O₅ melts at air conditions.     

利用卫星影像获得汶川地震之同震地表变形来探讨其断层几何模型(英文)

On 12th May 2008, a MW7.9 earthquake occurred on the Longmenshan fault in the mountains to the west of Sichuan Province, which shook many Asian cities and killed at least 69 000 people.     

Contextualizing vulnerability assessment: a support to geo-risk management in central Africa

European Union directives as well as national legislation are placing great emphasis on the inclusion of stakeholder perspectives in the governance of risks from natural hazards. This should help decision makers formulate better policies. However, to date, there is little information on stakeholders’ perspectives with respect to landslide risk governance. This paper addresses the gap by reporting on research in Nocera Inferiore, Italy. The research is based on a documentary analysis, 43 semi-structured interviews and a survey submitted to 373 residents. The political instability, the unfairness of national funding allocation across municipalities and the residents’ lack of knowledge about risk assessment and emergency planning are some of the main barriers to effective risk governance. Moreover, there are divergent, sometimes even opposite, stakeholders’ views on several issues, such as the relevance of illegal development in risky areas. The results highlight the importance of addressing these divergent views and including the plurality of voices as a prerequisite for inclusive risk governance. The research provided essential background information for a participatory process, which was designed to support decisions on landslide risk mitigation measures in Nocera Inferiore (Linnerooth-Bayer et al. this issue). The methodology will be of more general interest to researchers and policymakers intent upon including stakeholder perspectives in natural risk governance.     

MIDI – the 10 μm instrument on the VLTI

After more than five years of preparation, the mid-infrared interferometric instrument MIDI has been transported to Paranal where it will undergo testing and commissioning on theVery Large Telescope Interferometer VLTI from the end of 2002through large part of this year 2003. Thereafter it will be available as a user instrument to perform interferometric observations over the8 μm–13 μm wavelength range, with a spatial resolution of typically 20 milliarcsec, a spectral resolution of up to 250, and an anticipated point source sensitivity of N = 3–4 mag or 1–2.5 Jy for self –fringe tracking, which will be the only observing mode during the first months of operation. We describe the layout of the instrument, laboratory tests, and expected performance, both for broadband and spectrally resolved observing modes. We also briefly outline the planned guaranteed time observations. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

High‐resolution evolution of terrigenous sediment yields in the Provence Basin during the last 6 Ma: relation with climate and tectonics

Basin‐wide correlation of Messinian units and Plio‐Quaternary chronostratigraphic markers (5.3 Ma, 2.6 Ma, 0.9 Ma and 0.45 Ma), the mapping of total sediment thickness and the determination of overall sedimentary volumes enabled us to provide a high‐resolution quantitative history of sediment volumes for the last 6 Ma along the Gulf of Lions margin. The results point to (i) a dramatic increase in terrigenous sediment input during the Messinian Salinity Crisis. This increased sedimentation reflects enhanced regional fluvial erosion related to the dramatic fall of Mediterranean base‐level. Stronger weathering due to a regional wetter climate probably also increased erosional fluxes. (ii) A sediment input three times higher during the Plio‐Quaternary compared to the Miocene seems in agreement with published measurements from World's ocean. However, the timing of this increase being uncertain, it implies that the trigger(s) also remain(s) uncertain. (iii) A decrease in detrital volume around 2.6 Ma is attributed to a regional change in the drainage pattern of rivers in the northwestern Alps. (iv) This study also highlights the Mid‐Pleistocene Revolution around 0.9 Ma, which resulted in an almost doubling of sediment input in the Provencal Basin.     

Near-infrared [Fe ii] emission from supernova remnants and the supernova rate of starburst galaxies

In an effort better to calibrate the supernova rate of starburst galaxies as determined from near-infrared [Fe  ii ] features, we report on a [Fe  ii ] λ 1.644 μm line-imaging survey of a sample of 42 optically selected supernova remnants (SNRs) in M33. A wide range of [Fe  ii ] luminosities are observed within our sample (from less than 6 to 695 L_⊙). Our data suggest that the bright [Fe  ii ] SNRs are entering the radiative phase and that the density of the local interstellar medium (ISM) largely controls the amount of [Fe  ii ] emission. We derive the following relation between the [Fe  ii ] λ 1.644 μm line luminosity of radiative SNRs and the electronic density of the post-shock gas, n _e: L _{[Fe  ii ]}     (cm⁻³). We also find a correlation in our data between L _{[Fe  ii ]} and the metallicity of the shock-heated gas, but the physical interpretation of this result remains inconclusive, as our data also show a correlation between the metallicity and n _e. The dramatically higher level of [Fe  ii ] emission from SNRs in the central regions of starburst galaxies is most likely due to their dense environments, although metallicity effects might also be important. The typical [Fe  ii ]-emitting lifetime of a SNR in the central regions of starburst galaxies is found to be of the order of 10⁴ yr. On the basis of these results, we provide a new empirical relation allowing the determination of the current supernova rate of starburst galaxies from their integrated near-infrared [Fe  ii ] luminosity.     

板状绿柱石晶体的结构测定

自然界中绿柱石晶体多为柱状,具板状晶形的绿柱石非常少见。本文对产于四川雪宝顶云英岩晶洞中的无色透明板状绿柱石进行了精确的结构分析,并与产于阿尔泰山号伟晶岩脉中的柱状绿柱石进行了比较。与阿尔泰柱状绿柱石相比,雪面板状绿石富Ｌi、Ｎａ,ｃ／ａ值较高,为１．００１,属钠－锂绿柱石或“四面体”绿柱石。本文还对这种特殊形貌柱石的形成机制进行了初步讨论,成矿流体中Ｌi的浓度以及Ｓi的化学形态可能是影响柱石忻驳闹