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281.
Evaluation of forecast strategies for seasonal and decadal forecasts in presence of systematic model errors 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Linus Magnusson Magdalena Alonso-Balmaseda Susanna Corti Franco Molteni Tim Stockdale 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(9-10):2393-2409
This study discusses and compares three different strategies used to deal with model error in seasonal and decadal forecasts. The strategies discussed are the so-called full initialisation, anomaly initialisation and flux correction. In the full initialisation the coupled model is initialised to a state close to the real-world attractor and after initialisation the model drifts towards its own attractor, giving rise to model bias. The anomaly initialisation aims to initialise the model close to its own attractor, by initialising only the anomalies. The flux correction strategy aims to keep the model trajectory close to the real-world attractor by adding empirical corrections. These three strategies have been implemented in the ECMWF coupled model, and are evaluated at seasonal and decadal time-scales. The practical implications of the different strategies are also discussed. Results show that full initialisation results in a clear model drift towards a colder climate. The anomaly initialisation is able to reduce the drift, by initialising around the model mean state. However, the erroneous model mean state results in degraded seasonal forecast skill. The best results on the seasonal time-scale are obtained using momentum-flux correction, mainly because it avoids the positive feedback responsible for a strong cold bias in the tropical Pacific. It is likely that these results are model dependent: the coupled model used here shows a strong cold bias in the Central Pacific, resulting from a positive coupled feedback between winds and SST. At decadal time-scales it is difficult to determine whether any of the strategies is superior to the others. 相似文献
282.
Decadal interactions between the western tropical Pacific and the North Atlantic Oscillation 总被引:5,自引:5,他引:0
The relationship between interdecadal variations of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) in the last 120 years and circulation
anomalies related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is investigated in this study. Using an atmospheric general circulation
model (AGCM), we confirm observational evidence that variations in the SST gradient in the western tropical Pacific are related
to the NAO anomalies on decadal timescale, and may be contributing to the shift towards the positive NAO phase observed in
the late 20th century. The role played by the Indian Ocean-NAO teleconnection, advocated in recent studies focused on the
last 50 years, is also assessed in the context of the 120-year long record. It is suggested that a positive feedback between
the Pacific SST and the hemispheric circulation pattern embedding the decadal NAO signal may act to enhance the internal variability
of the coupled ocean–atmosphere system, and justify the stronger teleconnection found in observational data than in SST-forced
AGCM experiments.
相似文献
Fred KucharskiEmail: |
283.
W.J. Schuster L. Parrao A. Franco T.C. Beers P.E. Nissen 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1999,265(1-4):183-184
Strömgren uvby photometry has been observed for an additional 140 very metal-poor stars from the survey of Beers et al. (1992). These Galactic stars of very-low metallicity provide crucial information for the investigation of the formation and evolution of the Galaxy, as well as on the nature of the early Universe. The Strömgren uvby-β system allows the measurement of stellar atmospheric parameters as a prelude to detailed abundance studies which will make use of high-resolution spectroscopy and the new generation of large telescopes. The photometric techniques developed by Schuster et al. (1996) are used not only to classify these very metal-poor stars but also to derive effective temperatures, surface gravities, and improved estimates for their interstellar reddenings. In particular, photometric diagrams such as [c 1], [m 1] and c 0, (b-y)0 are used to classify these stars, especially those near the main-sequence turnoff, where contamination from slightly-evolved subgiants, lower surface-gravity horizontal-branch stars, and even a few supergiant or AGB candidates is found. 相似文献
284.
Astronomy Letters - The high-resolution Jet Propulsion Laboratory DE431 and DE432 planetary ephemeris are used to evaluate the instantaneous eccentricity functions of the orbits of the planets of... 相似文献
285.
This paper describes a major programme of small-scale physical model tests to establish better the influence of armour type and configuration on overtopping. Specifically, 179 tests determined the relative difference in overtopping behaviour for 13 types/configurations of armour. Roughness factors γf were determined for rock (two layers), cubes (single layer and two layers), Tetrapod, Antifer, Haro, Accropode, Core-Loc™ and Xbloc™. These roughness influence factors have been included in the CLASH database and are for use in the neural network prediction of overtopping. Individual wave-by-wave overtopping volumes were analysed and found to compare well with current prediction methods. Measured reflection coefficients for the different units are also presented and compared with recent formulae. 相似文献