Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.     

Climate change impacts on invasive potential of pink hibiscus mealybug, Maconellicoccus hirsutus (Green), in Chile

Maconellicoccus hirsutus (Green) (Hemiptera:Pseudoccidae) is an important pest in many countries being responsible for considerable economic loses. Although it is not currently present in Chile, the chance that it could be accidentally introduced rises with the list of infested countries increasing over the last years. In addition, climate change projections indicate that a larger region would fit as potential habitat for this pest, allowing it to persist over time and colonize a larger proportion of the Chilean territory. In this study the geographic distribution and the number of generations this mealybug would develop in Chile were determined, under current temperatures and under two projected climatic scenarios. Cumulative degree days were calculated for current and future scenarios using a lower temperature threshold of 14.5 °C, with 624.5 degree-days as the thermal requirement for the species to complete one generation. The results show that under current climate conditions M. hirsutus could develop up to three generations in the north of the country (i.e. 18° South) and one generation in the region near 37° South. Under future scenarios’ conditions the pest could develop up to five generations in the north, and one generation around the 42° South. Present climate conditions in Chile would allow the establishment of the pink hibiscus mealybug, if the pest enters the country. Climate change conditions would allow the potentially invaded area to expand south, and would promote the development of more generations per year of the mealybug in the studied territory.     

Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?

The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed.     

Interacting Ricci-like holographic dark energy

In a flat Friedmann–Lemaitre–Robertson–Walker background, a scheme of dark matter–dark energy interaction is studied considering a holographic Ricci-like model for the dark energy. Without giving a priori some specific model for the interaction function, we show that this function can experience a change of sign during the cosmic evolution. The parameters involved in the holographic model are adjusted with Supernova data and we obtained results compatible with the observable universe.     

Sediment Organic Carbon in Todos Santos Bay, Baja California, Mexico

Sediment grain size and organic carbon (OC) data collected over the past 50 years, together with δ¹³C values of OC in recently collected samples, were analyzed to improve understanding of sediment OC distribution and abundance in Todos Santos Bay. Sediments in the submarine canyon at the mouth of the bay and in quiet-water locations along the shore are fine grained, high in OC, and have generally low δ¹³C values; sediments in high-energy environments are low in OC and have high δ¹³C values. A bivariate isotopic mixing model indicates that none of the sediments contain >50% terrigenous OC (average ~30%), and that the terrigenous OC content of the sediments is a small proportion of the OC content of local soils. Sediment OC composition is apparently controlled by energy-related sorting and deposition, oxidation of much of the original terrigenous OC, and replacement of some terrigenous OC by marine OC.     

Upper Cretaceous marine‐continental transition (Leonese Area,NW Spain) defined from integrated outcrop and seismic stratigraphy

The Upper Cretaceous succession of the Leonese Area (NW Spain) comprises mixed clastic and carbonate sediments. This succession is divided into two lithostratigraphic units, the Voznuevo Member and the Boñar Formation, which represent fluvial, shoreface, intertidal, subtidal and open‐shelf sedimentary environments. Regional seismic interpretation and sequence stratigraphic analysis have allowed the study of lateral and vertical changes in the sedimentary record and the definition of third‐order levels of stratigraphic cyclicity. On the basis of these data, the succession can be divided into two second‐order depositional sequences (DS‐1 and DS‐2), incorporating three system tracts in a lowstand to transgressive to highstand system tract succession (LST–TST–HST). These sequences are composed of fluvial systems at the base with palaeocurrents that flowed westward and south‐westward. The upper part of DS‐1 (Late Albian–Middle Turonian) shows evidence of intertidal to subtidal and offshore deposits. DS‐2 (Late Turonian–Campanian) comprises intertidal to subtidal, tidal flat, shallow marine and lacustrine deposits and interbedded fluvial deposits. Two regressive–transgressive cycles occurred in the area related to eustatic controls. The evolution of the basin can be explained by base‐level changes and associated shifts in depositional trends of successive retrogradational episodes. By using isobath and isopach maps, the main palaeogeographic features of DS‐1 and DS‐2 were constrained, namely coastline positions, the existence and orientation of corridors through which fluvial networks were channelled and the location of the main depocentres of the basin. Sedimentation on the Upper Cretaceous marine platform was mainly controlled by (i) oscillations of sea level and (ii) the orientation of Mesozoic faults, which induced sedimentation along depocentres. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fracturing and fluid‐flow during post‐rift subsidence in carbonates of the Jandaíra Formation,Potiguar Basin,NE Brazil

Pervasive fracture networks are common in many reservoir‐scale carbonate bodies even in the absence of large deformation and exert a major impact on their mechanical and flow behaviour. The Upper Cretaceous Jandaíra Formation is a few hundred meters thick succession of shallow water carbonates deposited during the early post‐rift stage of the Potiguar rift (NE Brazil). The Jandaíra Formation in the present onshore domain experienced <1.5 km thermal subsidence and, following Tertiary exhumation, forms outcrops over an area of >1000 km². The carbonates have a gentle, <5?, dip to the NE and are affected by few regional, low displacement faults or folds. Despite their simple tectonic history, carbonates display ubiquitous open fractures, sub‐vertical veins, and sub‐vertical as well as sub‐horizontal stylolites. Combining structural analysis, drone imaging, isotope studies and mathematical modelling, we reconstruct the fracturing history of the Jandaíra Formation during and following subsidence and analyse the impact fractures had on coeval fluid flow. We find that Jandaíra carbonates, fully cemented after early diagenesis, experienced negligible deformation during the first few hundreds of meters of subsidence but were pervasively fractured when they reached depths >400–500 m. Deformation was accommodated by a dense network of sub‐vertical mode I and hybrid fractures associated with sub‐vertical stylolites developed in a stress field characterised by a sub‐horizontal σ₁ and sub‐vertical σ₂. The development of a network of hybrid fractures, rarely reported in the literature, activated the circulation of waters charged in the mountainous region, flowing along the porous Açu sandstone underlying the Jandaíra carbonates and rising to the surface through the fractured carbonates. With persisting subsidence, carbonates reached depths of 800–900 m entering a depth interval characterised by a sub‐vertical σ₁. At this stage, sub‐horizontal stylolites developed liberating calcite which sealed the sub‐vertical open fractures transforming them in veins and preventing further flow. During Tertiary exhumation, several of the pre‐existing veins and stylolites opened and became longer, and new fractures were created typically with the same directions of the older features. The simplicity of our model suggests that most rocks in passive margin settings might have followed a similar evolution and thus display similar structures.     

Decadal prediction skill in a multi-model ensemble

Decadal climate predictions may have skill due to predictable components in boundary conditions (mainly greenhouse gas concentrations but also tropospheric and stratospheric aerosol distributions) and initial conditions (mainly the ocean state). We investigate the skill of temperature and precipitation hindcasts from a multi-model ensemble of four climate forecast systems based on coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Regional variations in skill with and without trend are compared with similarly analysed uninitialised experiments to separate the trend due to monotonically increasing forcings from fluctuations around the trend due to the ocean initial state and aerosol forcings. In temperature most of the skill in both multi-model ensembles comes from the externally forced trends. The rise of the global mean temperature is represented well in the initialised hindcasts, but variations around the trend show little skill beyond the first year due to the absence of volcanic aerosols in the hindcasts and the unpredictability of ENSO. The models have non-trivial skill in hindcasts of North Atlantic sea surface temperature beyond the trend. This skill is highest in the northern North Atlantic in initialised experiments and in the subtropical North Atlantic in uninitialised simulations. A similar result is found in the Pacific Ocean, although the signal is less clear. The uninitialised simulations have good skill beyond the trend in the western North Pacific. The initialised experiments show some skill in the decadal ENSO region in the eastern Pacific, in agreement with previous studies. However, the results in this study are not statistically significant (p?≈?0.1) by themselves. The initialised models also show some skill in forecasting 4-year mean Sahel rainfall at lead times of 1 and 5?years, in agreement with the observed teleconnection from the Atlantic Ocean. Again, the skill is not statistically significant (p?≈?0.2). Furthermore, uninitialised simulations that include volcanic aerosols have similar skill. It is therefore still an open question whether initialisation improves predictions of Sahel rainfall. We conclude that the main source of skill in forecasting temperature is the trend forced by rising greenhouse gas concentrations. The ocean initial state contributes to skill in some regions, but variations in boundary forcings such as aerosols are as important in decadal forecasting.     

The 2011 submarine volcanic eruption in El Hierro (Canary Islands)

Forty years after the Teneguía Volcano (La Palma, 1971), a submarine eruption took place off the town of La Restinga, south of El Hierro, the smallest and youngest island of the Canarian Archipelago. Precursors allowed an early detection of the event and its approximate location, suggesting it was submarine. Uncertainties derived from insufficient scientific information available to the authorities during the eruption, leading to disproportionate civil protection measures, which had an impact on the island's economy—based primarily on tourism—while residents experienced extra fear and distress.