Comparing predictive capability of statistical and deterministic methods for landslide susceptibility mapping: a case study in the northern Apennines (Reggio Emilia Province, Italy)

Statistical and deterministic methods are widely used in geographic information system based landslide susceptibility mapping. This paper compares the predictive capability of three different models, namely the Weight of Evidence, the Fuzzy Logic and SHALSTAB, for producing shallow earth slide susceptibility maps, to be included as informative layers in land use planning at a local level. The test site is an area of about 450 km² in the northern Apennines of Italy where, in April 2004, rainfall combined with snowmelt triggered hundreds of shallow earth slides that damaged roads and other infrastructure. An inventory of the landslides triggered by the event was obtained from interpretation of aerial photos dating back to May 2004. The pre-existence of mapped landslides was then checked using earlier aerial photo coverage. All the predictive models were run on the same set of geo-environmental causal factors: soil type, soil thickness, land cover, possibility of deep drainage through the bedrock, slope angle, and upslope contributing area. Model performance was assessed using a threshold-independent approach (the ROC plot). Results show that global accuracy is as high as 0.77 for both statistical models, while it is only 0.56 for SHALSTAB. Besides the limited quality of input data over large areas, the relatively poorer performance of the deterministic model maybe also due to the simplified assumptions behind the hydrological component (steady-state slope parallel flow), which can be considered unsuitable for describing the hydrologic behavior of clay slopes, that are widespread in the study area.     

Gezira Scheme between state and market: some remarks on the privatization of irrigation in Sudan

This paper is a study of so-called privatization of the great Sudanese Gezira Scheme, under the structural and budgetary problems of the country. Nothwithstanding the official declaration, in reality privatization affected the project just in nominal way. Indeed, two factors play against it: the resistance of the State, which wants to hold the management of the national strategic resources, and the resistance of the territory itself which — as autopoietic system — reacts against any attempt to change its own structure. The islamic renewal(tajdid) can be considered as a way to solve the dilemma between development and social consent, under these new conditions.     

Velocity and runout simulation of destructive debris flows and debris avalanches in pyroclastic deposits,Campania region,Italy

The Campanian Apennines are characterized by the presence of monocline ridges, mainly formed by limestone. During the periods of volcanic activity of the Somma-Vesuvius and Phlegrean Fields, the ridges were mantled with pyroclastic materials in varying thickness. The pyroclastics have been involved in destructive landslides both in historical time and in the recent past (1997, 1998, 1999). The landslides occur following intense and prolonged rainfalls. In some cases, landslides extended up to 4 km into the surrounding lowlands and reached towns, causing severe destruction and over 200 deaths. Generally, the landslides begin as small debris slides that develop into large, shallow debris avalanches or debris flows involving pyroclastic horizons and colluvial soils (0.5–2 m thick) on steep and vegetated slopes, often at the heads of gullies. During motion, the landslide materials eroded vegetation and soils from the slope, so that the moving material volume tended to increase. Then, proceeding towards and beyond the base of the slopes, the phenomena evolved into hyperconcentrated streamflow due to dilution by incorporating water. The results of motion analyses are described. An empirical rheological relationship was used including two principal terms that depend on the total normal stress and on the flow velocity. On this basis, the model has simulated the velocity and duration of debris avalanches and the distribution of the deposits. The selected areas were those of Sarno/Quindici and Cervinara, where a large amount of data is available both on the material properties and geomorphological setting. It was found that the majority of the cases at the two sites can be simulated successfully with only one specific pair of rheologic parameters. This provides the possibility for first-order predictions to be made of the motion of future landslides. Such predictions will be a valuable tool for outlining potential hazard areas and designing remedial measures.     

High-temperature rapid pyrometamorphism induced by a charcoal pit burning: The case of Ricetto,central Italy

Bulk chemistry and mineralogy of the peculiar rock of Ricetto (Carseolani Mts., Central Apennines, Italy) was studied to resolve its controversial origin: igneous dyke or anthropic product. This hybrid rock consists of a colorless, felsic component made up of glass plus quartz, and a brown, femic component made up of fans and spherulites of diopside, calcic plagioclase, wollastonite, and melilite. Textural relationships indicate very rapid cooling and immiscibility phenomena. The bulk chemistry of the rock is the same as that of the surrounding siliciclastic sandstone. The ¹⁴C analysis of a coal fragment from bottom of the body yields the conventional age of 227(±50) years. The Ricetto occurrence is an example of pyrometamorphism of a siliceous limestone induced by a charcoal pit burning. The small size of the heat source at Ricetto caused an intense but short-lived melting of the country rock. Prograde metamorphism caused a temperature increase up to 1,000–1,100 °C when melilite crystallization conditions were reached at appreciable P(CO₂) and high f(O₂). Melting occurred in a close system represented by the simplified equation: 3Cal+16.5Qtz+Ms+BtMel+Melt+2H₂O+3CO₂+0.5O₂. Diopside+calcic plagioclase+wollastonite formed by melilite breakdown during rapid cooling, through the reaction: 6Mel+6Qtz+0.5O₂3Di+2An+7Wo. Liquid immiscibility caused the separation between the felsic melt component and the femic melilite-bearing component. Immiscibility was characterized by different fractionation of alumina and alkalies between these two phases. Differences in bulk, glass, and mineral chemistry between the Ricetto and other melilite-bearing pyrometamorphic rocks can be attributed mainly to different protoliths.An erratum to this article can be found at     

Morphological effects of local scouring in step–pool streams

Step–pool morphology characterizes many high‐gradient streams in a variety of natural settings, but formative processes and evolutionary dynamics are still poorly understood. In this paper, natural step–pool geometry is compared with steep alluvial channels where grade‐control structures such as check‐dams and bed sills make the stream profile resemble a natural stepped stream. Along these channels, local scouring due to falling jets forms plunge pools under each structure, analogous to natural steps determining the formation of pools. In order to test the hypothesis that natural pools are analogous to pools formed below grade‐control works with respect to their dimensions, shape and formative dynamics, 37 natural pools and 73 artificial pools were surveyed in 10 mountain streams of the eastern Italian Alps. Pools below grade‐control works featured a transitional zone between the scour hole and the downstream sloping bed, marked by a depositional berm. When geometric parameters such as maximum pool depth, length and step–berm distances are normalized to the jet virtual energy, no statistically significant differences were detected between natural and artificial systems. These results lend support to an upstream‐forced cascade model for step–pool formation, where the energy of falling jets controls the geometry of the pools, and is therefore regarded as the most important scaling‐independent variable. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.