This paper analyzes changes of maximum temperatures in Europe, which are evaluated using two state-of-the-art regional climate models from the EU ENSEMBLES project. Extremes are expressed in terms of return values using a time-dependent generalized extreme value (GEV) model fitted to monthly maxima. Unlike the standard GEV method, this approach allows analyzing return periods at different time scales (monthly, seasonal, annual, etc). The study focuses on the end of the 20th century (1961?C2000), used as a calibration/validation period, and assesses the changes projected for the period 2061?C2100 considering the A1B emission scenario. The performance of the regional models is evaluated for each season of the calibration period against the high-resolution gridded E-OBS dataset, showing a similar South-North gradient with larger values over the Mediterranean basin. The inter-RCM changes in the bias pattern with respect to the E-OBS are larger than the bias resulting from a change in the boundary conditions from ERA-40 to ECHAM5 20c3m. The maximum temperature response to increased green house gases, as projected by the A1B scenario, is consistent for both RCMs. Under that scenario, results indicate that the increments for extremes (e.g. 40-year return values) will be two or three times higher than those for the mean seasonal temperatures, particularly during Spring and Summer in Southern Europe. 相似文献
We analyze the processes responsible for the generation and evolution of sea-surface temperature anomalies observed in the Southern Ocean during a decade based on a 2D diagnostic mixed-layer model in which geostrophic advection is prescribed from altimetry. Anomalous air–sea heat flux is the dominant term of the heat budget over most of the domain, while anomalous Ekman heat fluxes account for 20–40% of the variance in the latitude band 40°?60°S. In the ACC pathway, lateral fluxes of heat associated with anomalous geostrophic currents are a major contributor, dominating downstream of several topographic features, reflecting the influence of eddies and frontal migrations. A significant fraction of the variability of large-scale SST anomalies is correlated with either ENSO or the SAM, each mode contributing roughly equally. The relation between the heat budget terms and these climate modes is investigated, showing in particular that anomalous Ekman and air–sea heat fluxes have a co-operating effect (with regional exceptions), hence the large SST response associated with each mode. It is further shown that ENSO- or SAM-locked anomalous geostrophic currents generate substantial heat fluxes in all three basins with magnitude comparable with that of atmospheric forcings for ENSO, and smaller for the SAM except for limited areas. ENSO-locked forcings generate SST anomalies along the ACC pathway, and advection by mean flows is found to be a non-negligible contribution to the heat budget, exhibiting a wavenumber two zonal structure, characteristic of the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave. By contrast SAM-related forcings are predominantly zonally uniform along the ACC, hence smaller zonal SST gradients and a lesser role of mean advection, except in the SouthWest Atlantic. While modeled SST anomalies are significantly correlated with observations over most of the Southern Ocean, the analysis of the data-model discrepancies suggests that vertical ocean physics may play a significant role in the nonseasonal heat budget, especially in some key regions for mode water formation. 相似文献
Spectacular growth has marked the industry initiated by Malcolm McLean with the sailing of the Ideal-X in 1956. While the growth of container shipping has been typically seen in terms of technological advances, increasing vessel
capacity, traffic growth, financial performance and competitiveness, it has been shaped also by organisational transformations.
This paper provides an overview of the major companies that make up the container shipping industry, tracing the rapid adoption
of containerisation by American carriers to its diffusion to Europe and then Asia. While several carriers belong to business
conglomerates, the most dynamic in recent years have been those that are those that possess a family structure. About 12 of
the present top 20 carriers are largely family controlled, including 4 out of the top 5. Unlike other capital intensive industries,
where the power has shifted towards corporate governance, the container shipping industry retains a strong individualistic
entrepreneurial character. At a time when North American ownership in container shipping is no more, the spirit of innovation
began 50 years ago by an American visionary is still evident in the entrepreneurial dynamism of many of the industry leaders. 相似文献
We discuss the high energy electron absorption signatures at Titan during the Cassini dayside magnetospheric encounters. We use the electron measurements of the Low Energy Measurement System of the Magnetospheric Imaging Instrument. We also examine the mass loading boundary based on the ion data of the Ion Mass Spectrometer sensor of the Cassini Plasma Spectrometer. The dynamic motion of the Kronian magnetopause and the periodic charged particle flux and magnetic field variations – associated with the magnetodisk of Saturn – of the subcorotating magnetospheric plasma creates a unique and complex environment at Titan. Most of the analysed flybys (like T25–T33 and T35–T51) cluster at similar Saturn Local Time positions. However the instantaneous direction of the incoming magnetospheric particles may change significantly from flyby to flyby due to the very different magnetospheric field conditions which are found upstream of Titan within the sets of encounters.The energetic magnetospheric electrons gyrate along the magnetic field lines of Saturn, and at the same time bounce between the mirror points of the magnetosphere. This motion is combined with the drift of the magnetic field lines. When these flux tubes interact with the upper atmosphere of Titan, their content is depleted over approximately an electron bounce period. These depletion signatures are observed as sudden drop-outs of the electron fluxes. We examined the altitude distribution of these drop-outs and concluded that these mostly detected in the exo-ionosphere of Titan and sometimes within the ionosphere.However there is a relatively significant scatter in the orbit to orbit data, which can be attributed to the which can be attributed to the variability of the plasma environment and as a consequence, the induced magnetosphere of Titan. A weak trend between the incoming electron fluxes and the measured drop-out altitudes has also been observed. 相似文献
The production of coarse sediment in mountain landscapes depends mainly on the type and activity of geomorphic processes and topographic and natural conditions (e.g. vegetation cover) of these catchments. The supply of sediment from these slopes to mountain streams and its subsequent transport lead to sediment connectivity, which describes the integrated coupled state of these systems. Studies from the Northern Calcareous Alps show that the size of the sediment contributing area (SCA), a subset of the drainage area that effectively delivers sediment to the channel network, can be used as a predictor of sediment delivery to mountain streams. The SCA concept is delineated on a digital elevation model (DEM) using a set of rules related to the steepness and length of slopes directly adjacent to the channel network, the gradient of the latter and the vegetation cover. The present study investigates the applicability of this concept to the Western Alps to identify geomorphologically active areas and to estimate mean annual sediment yield (SY) in mainly debris-flow-prone catchments. We use a statistical approach that shows a parameter optimisation and a linear regression of SY on SCA extent. We use a dataset of ~25 years of assessed coarse sediment accumulation in 35 sediment retention basins. In the investigated catchments, sediment transport is governed by several factors, mainly by the extent of vegetation-free areas with a minimum slope of 23° that is coupled to the channel network with a very low gradient of the latter. With our improved framework, we can show that the SCA approach can be applied to catchments that are widely distributed, in a large spatial scale (hectare area) and very heterogeneous in their properties. In general, the investigated catchments show high connectivity, resulting in significant correlations between long-term average yield and the size of the SCA. 相似文献
This paper presents a thermo‐hydro‐mechanical framework to model the drying behavior of Boom clay. First, the experimental campaign conducted Noémie Prime is briefly presented because it is used to validate the model. The data acquisition and processing is emphasized because of the use of X‐ray microtomography to be able to more accurately compare experimental and numerical strain fields. The different submodels are introduced. Numerical simulations are performed to illustrate the capability of the proposed model to reproduce the observed behavior. Finally, a comprehensive sensitivity study on several key model parameters associated with the water retention curve, and the permeability of the medium, is performed to get a better understanding of the physics behind the coupled model. 相似文献
The present study aims at the assessment of six satellite rainfall estimates (SREs) in Pakistan. For each assessed products, both real-time (RT) and post adjusted (Adj) versions are considered to highlight their potential benefits in the rainfall estimation at annual, monthly, and daily temporal scales. Three geomorphological climatic zones, i.e., plain, mountainous, and glacial are taken under considerations for the determination of relative potentials of these SREs over Pakistan at global and regional scales. All SREs, in general, have well captured the annual north-south rainfall decreasing patterns and rainfall amounts over the typical arid regions of the country. Regarding the zonal approach, the performance of all SREs has remained good over mountainous region comparative to arid regions. This poor performance in accurate rainfall estimation of all the six SREs over arid regions has made their use questionable in these regions. Over glacier region, all SREs have highly overestimated the rainfall. One possible cause of this overestimation may be due to the low surface temperature and radiation absorption over snow and ice cover, resulting in their misidentification with rainy clouds as daily false alarm ratio has increased from mountainous to glacial regions. Among RT products, CMORPH-RT is the most biased product. The Bias was almost removed on CMORPH-Adj thanks to the gauge adjustment. On a general way, all Adj versions outperformed their respective RT versions at all considered temporal scales and have confirmed the positive effects of gauge adjustment. CMORPH-Adj and TMPA-Adj have shown the best agreement with in situ data in terms of Bias, RMSE, and CC over the entire study area. 相似文献
This article simulates deep decarbonization pathways for a small open economy that lacks the usual avenues for large CO2 reductions – heavy industry and power generation. A computable general equilibrium model is used to assess the energy and economic impacts of the transition to only one ton of CO2 emissions per capita in 2050. This represents a 76% reduction with respect to 1990 levels, while the population is expected to be 46% larger and GPD to increase by 90%. The article discusses several options and scenarios that are compatible with this emissions target and compares them with a reference scenario that extrapolates already-decided climate and energy policy instruments. We show that the ambitious target is attainable at moderate welfare costs, even if it needs very high carbon prices, and that these costs are lower when either CO2 can be captured and sequestered or electricity consumption can be taxed sufficiently to stabilize it.
Policy relevance
In the context of COP 21, all countries must propose intended contributions that involve deep decarbonization of their economy over the next decades. This article defines and analyses such pathways for Switzerland, taking into consideration the existing energy demand and supply and also already-defined climate policies. It draws several scenarios that are compatible with a target of 1 ton of CO2 emissions per capita in 2050. This objective is very challenging, especially with the nuclear phase out decided after the disaster in Fukushima and the political decision to balance electricity trade. Nevertheless, it is possible to design several feasible pathways that are based on different options. The economic cost is significant but affordable for the Swiss economy. The insights are relevant not only for Switzerland, but also for other industrialized countries when defining their INDCs. 相似文献