Social,environmental and health vulnerability to climate change in the Brazilian Northeastern Region

A regional vulnerability study in relation to the projected patterns of climate change (A2 and B2 scenarios) was developed for the Brazilian Northeastern region. An aggregated Vulnerability Index was constructed for each of the nine States of the region, based on the following information: population projections; climate-induced migration scenarios; disease trends; desertification rates; economic projections (GDP and employment) and projections for health care costs. The results obtained shall subsidize public policies for the protection of the human population from the projected impacts of regional changes in climate patterns.     

Modeling the photosynthetically active radiation in South West Amazonia under all sky conditions

Accurate estimates of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) are critical for the development of realistic models of plant productivity. However, in many areas such as the vast Amazon region of South America, there have been few empirical studies of PAR. Here, we analyzed the relationship between PAR and broadband solar irradiance (R _s) and formulated models to estimate PAR in two experimental sites (pasture and forest) in the Brazilian Amazon. Three different models of increasing complexity were developed based on information from R _s (model 1), R _s and clearness index (k _t; model 2), and R _s, k _t, and water vapor pressure (model 3). Estimates of PAR were generated for each season and for the entire year. All models had very high determination coefficients and indices of agreement for both pasture and forest sites. This strongly supports the use of R _s and k _t to produce robust estimates of PAR. The results obtained by annual models were close than that found by seasonal models, demonstrating that a single annual model is able to estimate PAR, albeit with lower accuracy.     

First- and higher-order dynamical controls on water exchanges between tidal basins and the open ocean. A case study for the East Frisian Wadden Sea

Observational data, high-resolution numerical modelling results and a simple analytical theory are combined in this paper to demonstrate the dependence of the volume transports through tidal inlets on topographical or morphological parameters of a Wadden Sea system. The area of interest covers the East Frisian Wadden Sea and consists of seven weakly connected tidal basins. The observations include time series of tidal gauge data and surface currents measured at a pile station in the backbarrier basin of the island Langeoog, as well as several ADCP transects in the Accumer Ee tidal inlet. The numerical simulations are based on the 3-D primitive equation General Estuarine Transport Model (GETM) with a horizontal resolution of 200 m and terrain following vertical coordinates. The model is forced at its open boundaries with sea-level data from an operational model for the German Bight (German Hydrographic Office). The simple theoretical concepts presented illustrate the effect of topography (hypsometry) in the tidal basins on the temporal variability of the exchange of water. This topographic control is effectuated through the bottom slope in the areas prone to drying and flooding. For our study area it takes about twice as long from slack water to maximum flood current than from slack water to maximum ebb current. The underlying physics of this signal modulation from a more or less harmonic forcing at the open-sea boundary and the quantification of the contributing physical processes are the major results of this paper. Estimates based simply on volume conservation are consistent with observations and results from numerical modelling, but they do not completely capture the actual non-linear tidal response. Our analysis shows that at least during part of the tidal cycle characteristic topographic parameters of the inlet/bay system have a major impact on the rate of exchange of waters between the Wadden Sea and the open ocean. This impact is especially strong during the transition between flood and ebb conditions. The possible morphodynamic responses are also addressed focusing on some common (universal) topographic features in seven tidal basins.Responsible Editor: Hans Burchard     

Contraints on the evolution of the Mid German Crystalline Rise — a study of outcrops west of the river Rhine

Several small outcrops along the western Rhinegraben escarpment expose rocks which represent the western prolongation of the so-called Mid-German Crystalline Rise. This basement ridge separates the Rhenohercynian and Saxothuringian zones of the Variscan belt of Europe and thus marks the boundary between the external and the internal zones. The variable rock association includes an orthogneissamphibolite complex, weakly deformed low grade sediments (?Devonian and Visean), and a number of different syn- to post-orogenic granodioritic to granitic intrusives, all crosscut by Late Lower Carboniferous undeformed lamprophyric dikes and unconformable overlain by Permian sediments and volcanics. Largely isothermal decompression during coaxial fabric evolution in the orthogneiss complex marks an early stage of deformation possibly due to crustal attenuation. Peak metamorphism (amphibolite/greenschist facies) in the other sequences with only minor orogenic shortening is succeeded by retrogressive strike-slip deformation associated to peak intrusive activity. The encountered typically low-P high-T metamorphism, the predominant strike-slip type kinematic pattern, and the preservation of parts of the Devono-Carboniferous sedimentary cover of the Rise preclude major crustal thickening and subsequent exhumation. An exception is the probably thrust-bounded juxtaposition of the Albersweiler orthogneisses and Burrweiler schists which is supported by their respective PT-paths. The orogenic imprint in the sedimentary cover of the crystalline rise appears to be thermal rather than strain-induced, suggesting a dominant role of the abundant pre- to late-orogenic intrusives. The essential aspects of this sequence of related structural and thermal events as well as the rock type association suggest a largely submarine incipient magmatic arc type of orogenic environment for this part of the Variscan belt. Its evolution probably started during the Upper Devonian on a disintegrating continental platform and proceeded through the Lower Carboniferous continental collision with the Rhenohercynian zone entailing a concomittant switch in deformation mode of the upper plate.     

Assessment of spatial transferability of process‐based hydrological model parameters in two neighbouring catchments in the Himalayan Region

Estimating the hydrological regime of ungauged catchments in the Himalayan region is challenging due to a lack of sufficient monitoring stations. In this paper, the spatial transferability of the model parameters of the process‐oriented J2000 hydrological model was investigated in 2 glaciated subcatchments of the Koshi river basin in eastern Nepal. The catchments have a high degree of similarity with respect to their static landscape features. The model was first calibrated (1986–1991) and validated (1992–1997) in the Dudh Koshi subcatchment. The calibrated and validated model parameters were then transferred to the nearby Tamor catchment (2001–2009). Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were carried out for both subcatchments to discover the sensitivity range of the parameters in the two catchments. The model represented the overall hydrograph well in both subcatchments, including baseflow, rising and falling limbs; however, the peak flows were underestimated. The efficiency results according to both Nash–Sutcliffe (ENS) and the coefficient of determination (r²) were above 0.84 in both catchments (1986–1997 in Dudh Koshi and 2001–2009 in Tamor). The ranking of the parameters in respect to their sensitivity matched well for both catchments while taking ENS and log Nash–Sutcliffe (LNS) efficiencies into account. However, there were some differences in sensitivity to ENS and LNS for moderately and less‐sensitive parameters, although the majority (13 out of 16 for ENS and 16 out of 16 for LNS) had a sensitivity response in a similar range. The generalized uncertainty likelihood estimation results suggest that the parameter uncertainty are most of the time within the range and the ensemble mean matches very good (ENS: 0.84) with observed discharge. The results indicate that transfer of the J2000 parameters to a neighbouring catchment in the Himalayan region with similar physiographic landscape characteristics is viable. This indicates the possibility of applying a calibrated process‐based J2000 model to other ungauged catchments in the Himalayan region, which could provide important insights into the hydrological system dynamics and provide much needed information to support water resources planning and management.