Propagation of positional error in 3D GIS: estimation of the solar irradiation of building roofs

While error propagation in GIS is a topic that has received a lot of attention, it has not been researched with 3D GIS data. We extend error propagation to 3D city models using a Monte Carlo simulation on a use case of annual solar irradiation estimation of building rooftops for assessing the efficiency of installing solar panels. Besides investigating the extension of the theory of error propagation in GIS from 2D to 3D, this paper presents the following contributions. We (1) introduce varying XY/Z accuracy levels of the geometry to reflect actual acquisition outcomes; (2) run experiments on multiple accuracy classes (121 in total); (3) implement an uncertainty engine for simulating acquisition positional errors to procedurally modelled (synthetic) buildings; (4) perform the uncertainty propagation analysis on multiple levels of detail (LODs); and (5) implement Solar3Dcity – a CityGML-compliant software for estimating the solar irradiation of roofs, which we use in our experiments. The results show that in the case of the city of Delft in the Netherlands, a 0.3/0.6 m positional uncertainty yields an error of 68 kWh/m²/year (10%) in solar irradiation estimation. Furthermore, the results indicate that the planar and vertical uncertainties have a different influence on the estimations, and that the results are comparable between LODs. In the experiments we use procedural models, implying that analyses are carried out in a controlled environment where results can be validated. Our uncertainty propagation method and the framework are applicable to other 3D GIS operations and/or use cases. We released Solar3Dcity as open-source software to support related research efforts in the future.     

Spatial patterns and drivers of fire occurrence in a Mediterranean environment: a case study of southern Croatia

Wildfires are an important factor of landscape dynamics in fire-prone environments of the world. In the Mediterranean, one of the most fire-susceptible environments globally, between 45,000 and 50,000 wildfires are recorded every year, causing disturbances in forest and grassland ecosystems. As a Mediterranean country, Croatia faces these problems, averaging over 1000 registered wildfires annually, with the coastal areas dominated by forest fires and continental Croatia by fires on agricultural lands. This research combines various landscape and socio-economic factors in the analysis of fire occurrence in Croatia’s southernmost region of Dalmatia. Around 275 of the largest fires (encompassing 98% of the total burnt area) registered in 2013 were investigated using OLS, and different spatial indices were employed to analyse regional variability in fire distribution. The results revealed that areas more prone to fires are the northern inland areas of Dalmatia and its entire coastal zone. Altitude and vegetation type demonstrated a correlation with fire occurrence, but an increase in population in the study area was also correlated with wildfire occurrence. Regarding vegetation, the grasslands and Mediterranean shrubland (maquis) were found to be the most fire-prone vegetation types in the study region, the distribution of which can be linked to different socio-economic and demographic processes occurring in the Eastern Adriatic.     

Preservation of meandering river channels in uniformly aggrading channel belts

Channel belt deposits from meandering river systems commonly display an internal architecture of stacked depositional features with scoured basal contacts due to channel and bedform migration across a range of scales. Recognition and correct interpretation of these bounding surfaces is essential to reconstruction of palaeochannel dimensions and to flow modelling for hydrocarbon exploration. It is therefore crucial to understand the suite of processes that form and transfer these surfaces into the fluvial sedimentary record. Here, the numerical model ‘NAYS2D’ is used to simulate a highly sinuous meandering river with synthetic stratigraphic architectures that can be compared directly to the sedimentary record. Model results highlight the importance of spatial and temporal variations in channel depth and migration rate to the generation of channel and bar deposits. Addition of net uniform bed aggradation (due to excess sediment input) allows quantification of the preservation of meander morphology for a wide range of depositional conditions. The authors find that the effect of vertical variation in scouring due to channel migration is generally orders of magnitude larger than the effect of bed aggradation, which explains the limited impact bed aggradation has on preservation of meander morphology. Moreover, lateral differences in stratigraphy within the meander belt are much larger than the stratigraphic imprint of bed aggradation. Repeatedly produced alternations of point bar growth followed by cut‐off result in a vertical trend in channel and scour feature stacking. Importantly, this vertical stacking trend differs laterally within the meander belt. In the centre of the meander belt, the high reworking intensity results in many bounding surfaces and disturbed deposits. Closer to the margins, reworking is infrequent and thick deposits with a limited number of bounding surfaces are preserved. These marginal areas therefore have the highest preservation potential for complete channel deposits and are thus best suited for palaeochannel reconstruction.     

Phosphorus Cycling and Burial in Sediments of a Seasonally Hypoxic Marine Basin

Recycling of phosphorus (P) from sediments contributes to the development of bottom-water hypoxia in many coastal systems. Here, we present results of a year-long assessment of P dynamics in sediments of a seasonally hypoxic coastal marine basin (Lake Grevelingen, the Netherlands) in 2012. Sequential phosphorus extractions (SEDEX) and X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) indicate that P was adsorbed to Fe-(III)-(oxyhydr)oxides when cable bacteria were active in the surface sediments in spring. With the onset of summer hypoxia, sulphide-induced dissolution of the Fe-(III)-(oxyhydr)oxides led to P release to the pore water and overlying water. The similarity in authigenic Ca-P concentrations in the sediment and suspended matter suggest that Ca-P is not formed in situ. The P burial efficiency was ≤ 32%. Hypoxia-driven sedimentary P recycling had a major impact on the water-column chemistry in the basin in 2012. Water-column monitoring data indicate up to ninefold higher surface water concentrations of phosphate in the basin in the late 1970s and a stronger hypoxia-driven seasonal P release from the sediment. The amplified release of P from the sediment in the past is attributed to the presence of a larger pool of Fe-bound P in the basin prior to the first onset of hypoxia. Given that P is not limiting, primary production in the basin has not been affected by the decadal changes in P availability and recycling over the past 40 years. The changes in P dynamics on decadal time scales were not recorded in sediment profiles of total P or organic C/total P.     

Conditions for veining in the Barrandian Basin (Lower Palaeozoic), Czech Republic: evidence from fluid inclusion and apatite fission track analysis

The interplay between fracture propagation and fluid composition and circulation has been examined by deciphering vein sequences in Silurian and Devonian limestones and shales at Kosov quarry in the Barrandian Basin. Three successive vein generations were recognised that can be attributed to different stages of a basinal cycle. Almost all generations of fracture cements host abundant liquid hydrocarbon inclusions that indicate repeated episodes of petroleum migration through the strata during burial, tectonic compression and uplift.The earliest veins that propagated prior to folding were displacive fibrous “beef” calcite veins occurring parallel to the bedding of some shale beds. Hydrocarbon inclusions within calcite possess homogenisation temperatures between 58 and 68 °C and show that the “beef” calcites originated in the deeper burial environment, during early petroleum migration from overpressured shales.E–W-striking extension veins that postdate “beef” calcite formed in response to Variscan orogenic deformations. Based on apatite fission track analysis (AFTA) data and other geological evidence, the veins probably formed 380–315 Ma ago, roughly coinciding with peak burial heating of the strata, folding and the intrusion of Variscan synorogenic granites. The veins that crosscut diagenetic cements and low-amplitude stylolites in host limestones are oriented semi-vertically to the bedding plane and are filled with cloudy, twinned calcite, idiomorphic smoky quartz and residues of hardened bitumen. Calcite and quartz cements contain abundant blue and blue–green-fluorescing primary inclusions of liquid hydrocarbons that homogenise between 50 and 110 °C. Geochemical characteristics of the fluids as revealed by gas chromatography–mass spectrometry, particularly the presence of olefins and parent aromatic hydrocarbons (phenonthrene), suggest that the oil entrapped in the inclusions experienced intense but geologically fast heating that resulted in thermal pyrolysis of its hydrocarbons. This implies that the organic fluids in the fractures may have been partly influenced by heating associated with igneous intrusions that are hidden below the surface.Subvertical N–S-striking veins represent the most recent fracturing event(s). Some of these veins are only a few millimeters thick and sparsely mineralised with thin leaf-like quartz crystals that contain tiny blue and yellow–orange-fluorescing hydrocarbon inclusions. Most of the N–S veins, however, occur as thick calcite veins that generally crystallised at 70 °C or less from H₂O–NaCl solutions of variable salinity with admixture of petroleum. The origin of these fluids is interpreted in terms of deeply circulating meteoric waters that partially mixed with deep basinal fluids. Wider structural considerations combined with fission-track analysis of adjacent host sediments suggest that N–S veins formed during post-Mesozoic uplift of the area, probably in response to major Tertiary Alpine deformations transmitted far into the Bohemian Massif.     

The influence of porosity gradients on mixing coefficients in sediments

The surface layer of aquatic sediments is a zone characterized by both porosity gradients and intensive mixing. In the standard approach, porosity gradients are ignored when estimating mixing intensity. Here, model formulations with both constant and varying porosity are contrasted to estimate mixing coefficients D_b from tracer depth profiles. Complementing the well-known exponential solution of the constant-porosity model, we present a general solution to the variable-porosity model in terms of hypergeometric functions. When using these models in a forward way, the tracer activities predicted by the variable-porosity model are higher than those generated by the constant-porosity model. Similarly, when inverse modelling, D_b values estimated by the variable-porosity model are systematically higher than those derived from the constant-porosity model. Still, differences in D_b values remain relatively small. When applying both mixing models to excess ²¹⁰Pb data profiles from slope sediments, a maximal difference of 30% is obtained between D_b values, the average deviation being 16%. A systematic exploration of parameter space predicts a maximal underestimation of 60% when deriving D_b values from the constant-porosity mixing model. Given the uncertainty imposed by other model assumptions underlying the diffusive mixing model, the influence of porosity gradients on D_b values must be classified as rather modest. Hence, the current mixing coefficient database is not biased by the constant porosity approximation.     

Geomorphological research of large-scale slope instability at Machu Picchu, Peru

A multidisciplinary approach has been adopted to study the slope movements and landscape evolution at the archaeological site of Machu Picchu and its immediate surroundings. The basic event in the paleogeomorphological evolution of the area was the large-scale slope movement, which destroyed the originally higher ridge between Mt. Machupicchu and Mt. Huaynapicchu. Within remnants of that primary deformation, several younger generations of slope movements occurred. The laboratory analyses of granitoids revealed highly-strained zones on the slopes of Mt. Machupicchu, which strongly affect the largest slope deformation. The borders of the largest slope deformation are structurally predisposed by the existence of fault zones. The majority of various types of slope movements on the so-called Front Slope (E facing) and Back Slope (W facing) are influenced by the alignment between topography and joints. Along with slope movements, fluvial erosion and tectonic disturbance of the rocks have been affecting the evolution of the landscape. A monitoring network for dilatometric and extensometric measurements was used to detect the present-day activity of rock displacements within the archaeological site. In addition to standard mapping of surface hydrogeological phenomena, eleven express slug tests were conducted to verify the infiltration potential of precipitation. The results of these surveys indicate that recent large-scale slope movement as suggested by some previous studies is doubtful, and the detected movements can be explained by individual movements of rock blocks or several other mechanisms including sinking of archaeological structures, subsurface erosion and annual changes in the water content of the soils.