Assessment of rockfall susceptibility by integrating statistical and physically-based approaches

In Val di Fassa (Dolomites, Eastern Italian Alps) rockfalls constitute the most significant gravity-induced natural disaster that threatens both the inhabitants of the valley, who are few, and the thousands of tourists who populate the area in summer and winter.To assess rockfall susceptibility, we developed an integrated statistical and physically-based approach that aimed to predict both the susceptibility to onset and the probability that rockfalls will attain specific reaches. Through field checks and multi-temporal aerial photo-interpretation, we prepared a detailed inventory of both rockfall source areas and associated scree-slope deposits. Using an innovative technique based on GIS tools and a 3D rockfall simulation code, grid cells pertaining to the rockfall source-area polygons were classified as active or inactive, based on the state of activity of the associated scree-slope deposits. The simulation code allows one to link each source grid cell with scree deposit polygons by calculating the trajectory of each simulated launch of blocks. By means of discriminant analysis, we then identified the mix of environmental variables that best identifies grid cells with low or high susceptibility to rockfalls. Among these variables, structural setting, land use, and morphology were the most important factors that led to the initiation of rockfalls.We developed 3D simulation models of the runout distance, intensity and frequency of rockfalls, whose source grid cells corresponded either to the geomorphologically-defined source polygons (geomorphological scenario) or to study area grid cells with slope angle greater than an empirically-defined value of 37° (empirical scenario). For each scenario, we assigned to the source grid cells an either fixed or variable onset susceptibility; the latter was derived from the discriminant model group (active/inactive) membership probabilities.Comparison of these four models indicates that the geomorphological scenario with variable onset susceptibility appears to be the most realistic model. Nevertheless, political and legal issues seem to guide local administrators, who tend to select the more conservative empirically-based scenario as a land-planning tool.     

Application of conditional geostatistical simulation to calculate the probability of occurrence of earthquakes belonging to a seismic series

Geostatistics offers various techniques of estimation and simulation that have been satisfactorily applied in solving geological problems. In this sense, conditional geostatistical simulation is applied to calculate the probability of occurrence of an earthquake with a lower than or equal magnitude to one determined during a seismic series. It is possible to calculate the energy of the next most probable earthquake from a specific time, given knowledge of the structure existing among earthquakes occurring prior to a specific moment.     

Geological and archaeological evidence of active faulting on the Martana Fault (Umbria–Marche Apennines,Italy) and its geodynamic implications

This paper examines the morphotectonic and structural–geological characteristics of the Quaternary Martana Fault in the Umbria–Marche Apennines fold‐and‐thrust belt. This structure is more than 30 km long and comprises two segments: a N–NNW‐trending longer segment and a 100°N‐trending segment. After developing as a normal fault in Early Pleistocene times, the N–NNW Martana Fault segment experienced a phase of dextral faulting extending from the Early to Middle Pleistocene boundary until around 0.39 Ma, the absolute age of volcanics erupted in correspondence to releasing bends. The establishment of a stress field with a NE–ENE‐trending σ₃ axis and NW–NNW σ₁ axis in Late Pleistocene to Holocene times resulted in a strong component of sinistral faulting along N–NNW‐trending fault segments and almost pure normal faulting on newly formed NW–SE faults. Fresh fault scarps, the interaction of faulting with drainage systems and displacement of alluvial fan apexes provide evidence of the ongoing activity of this fault. The active left‐lateral kinematic along N–NNW‐trending fault segments is also revealed by the 1.8 m horizontal offset of the E–W‐trending Decumanus road, at the Roman town of Carsulae. We interpret the present‐day kinematics of the Martana Fault as consistent with a model connecting surface structures to the inferred north‐northwest trending lithospheric shear zone marking the western boundary of the Adria Plate. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Extrusion vs. accretion at the frictional–viscous décollement transition in experimental thrust wedges: the role of convergence velocity

In many cases, thrust wedges accreted at shallow crustal levels show an across‐strike rheological variability along the basal décollement, notably from brittle to ductile behaviour. In this paper, we illustrate the results of sandbox analogue modelling research devoted to studying the influence of convergence velocity on wedge architecture when laterally juxtaposed frictional and viscous materials occur along the basal décollement of accreting thrust wedges. Our results show that slow convergence favours a near symmetrical distribution of thrust vergence within wedge sectors accreted above viscous décollement material, whereas fast convergence favours vergence asymmetry. In particular, at fast convergence rates the hinterlandward extrusion of viscous décollement material at the toe of the frictional wedge is favoured and contributed to accommodate a significant amount of the total contraction. Terra Nova, 18, 241–247, 2006     

Mineral chemistry and petrogenesis of granular ejecta from the Alban Hills volcano (Central Italy)

Summary A suite of lithics (ejecta) collected from the latest erupted pyroclastic products of the Alban Hills volcano (Central Italy) has been studied to determine their mineralogical composition and to investigate their genesis. The ejecta commonly have granular texture and consist of coarse-grained crystals often associated with a fine- to medium-grained matrix. The mineralogical composition is variable and consists of both typical igneous minerals and contact metamorphic phases. Garnet, clinopyroxene K-feldspar are almost ubiquitous, whereas leucite, wollastonite, sodalite-group minerals, phlogopite, nepheline and phillipsite are present in most of the ejecta; minor and accessory phases include cuspidine, amphibole, pyrrhotite, magnetite, apatite, uranpyrochlore, sphene, kalsilite, and melilite; anorthite, zircon and fluorine-bearing Ca, Zr silicate phases, larnite, and baryte are found sporadically. Ca, REE, Th silicophosphates occur in many samples generally disseminated along interstices and fractures of main minerals. Calcite is present as discrete crystals sometimes enclosed in other minerals, as granules in the fine-grained matrix and as late microcrystalline veins. It shows high oxygen and low carbon isotope ratios with δ¹⁸O = + 17.96 to + 27.19, and δ¹³C = −4.74 to −19.57. Clinopyroxene ranges from diopside to compositions strongly enriched with both Ca-Tschermak’s and esseneite components. Feldspars are generally potassic even though Ba and Sr are found in significant concentrations in some samples. K-feldspars from wollastonite-bearing ejecta are often rimmed with elongated felty crystals identified by X-ray diffraction analysis as leucite. These feldspars show a depletion in Si, and enrichment in Al and K from core to rim. Significant compositional variations are also shown by various other phases such as nepheline, apatite, Ca, REE, Th silicophosphate. The occurrence of igneous and contact metamorphic minerals, as well as the chemical variations of clinopyroxenes and feldspars in the investigated ejecta reveal complex genetic processes related to the interaction between potassic magma and wall rocks. The Ca-rich composition of most phases points to a carbonate nature for the wall rocks. Textural evidence suggests that coarse-grained rocks formed at the margin of the magma chamber were invaded by a late, volatile rich potassic liquid which crystallized as a fine-grained matrix and produced disaggregation and reaction of early formed minerals. Fluid phases percolating through the rocks generated infiltration metasomatism and deposited some uncommon phases rich in Ca, REE, Th, U, which are found along cracks and at the margins of early crystallized minerals. Overall, the all spectrum of the minerals found in this study are also typical of carbonatitic rocks. Their presence in the Alban Hills ejecta demonstrates that their genesis can be related to interaction between ultrapotassic melts and carbonate wall rocks, in addition to precipitation from carbonatitic melts. Received February 20, 2001; revised version accepted September 23, 2001     

The Ross orogeny of the transantarctic mountains: a northern Victoria Land perspective

Northern Victoria Land (Antarctica) is made up of three terranes of Cambrian–Ordovician rocks: the Wilson (WT), Bowers (BT) and Robertson Bay terranes (RBT). The WT comprises a low- to high-grade metasedimentary sequence intruded by calc-alkaline plutons with magmatic arc affinity; the BT is composed of low-grade metavolcanic and metasedimentary rocks usually interpreted as an intra-oceanic arc; the RBT is a very low-grade flysch-like sequence. Terrane juxtaposition has traditionally been attributed to accretion during the Cambro-ordovician Ross orogeny. We propose a new model in which the WT, BT and RBT are interpreted as an arc/back-arc/trench system, developed in the context of a SW-dipping subduction zone. The subducting plate carried a continent originally located outboard of the turbidite fan of the RBT. Collision between this continent and the East Antarctic craton caused partial subduction of the intervening back-arc basin and, ultimately, the end of Ross-orogenic subduction. The turbidite fan of the RBT originally sedimented above the trench and on the subducting oceanic plate; due to collision it was thrusted on the continent, that constitutes, at least in part, the present basement of the RBT turbidite. The eastern portions of this continental mass were later dissected by the tensile tectonics related to the opening of the of the Southern Ocean.     

Elliptical multi-sun-synchronous orbits for Mars exploration

The multi-sun-synchronous orbits allow cycles of observation of the same area in which solar illumination repetitively changes according to the value of the orbit elements and returns to the initial condition after a temporal interval multiple of the repetition of observation. This paper generalizes the concept of multi-sun-synchronous orbits, whose classical sun-synchronous orbits represent particular solutions, taking into consideration the elliptical case. The feasibility of using this typology of orbits, referred to as elliptical periodic multi-sun-synchronous orbits, has been investigated for the exploration of Mars and particular solutions have been selected. Such solutions considerably reduce the manoeuvre of velocity variation at the end of the interplanetary transfer with respect to the case of a target circular orbit around Mars. They are based on the use of quasi-critical inclinations in order to minimize the apsidal line motion and thus reduce orbit maintenance costs. Moreover, in the case of high eccentricities, the argument of pericentre may be set in order to obtain, around the apocentre, a condition of quasi-synchronism with the planet (the footprint of the probe on the surface presents a small shift with respect to a fixed point on the Martian surface). The low altitude of pericentre allows observation of the planet at a higher spatial resolution, while the orbit arc around the apocentre may be used to observe Mars with a wide spatial coverage in quasi-stationary conditions. This latter characteristic is useful for analysing atmospheric and meteorological phenomena and it allows for most of the orbital period a link between a rover on the surface of Mars and a probe orbiting around the planet.     

Retrogressive fabric development during exhumation of the Voltri Massif (Ligurian Alps,Italy): arguments for an extensional origin and implications for the Alps–Apennines linkage

Geological mapping coupled with structural investigations carried out in the Voltri Massif (eastern Ligurian Alps, Italy) provide new data for the interpretation of the tectonic context controlling main fabric development during exhumation of its high-pressure core. The Voltri Massif is here interpreted as a c. 30 km-long eclogite-bearing, asymmetric dome formed by the progressive verticalisation of the regional, second-phase mylonitic foliation developed during retrogressive greenschist metamorphic conditions. In this light, the exhumation history is driven by a ductile-to-brittle extensional process, operating through low-angle, top-to-the-W multiple detachment systems. A Late Eocene–Early Oligocene age for this extensional episode is proposed on the basis of structural correlations, stratigraphic and radiometric constraints. In this scenario, the Voltri Massif is interpreted as an extensional domain developed to accommodate the Late Eocene–Early Oligocene arching of the Western Alps–Northern Apennines orogenic system.     

Isotopic composition of rain- and groundwater at Mt. Vesuvius: environmental and volcanological implications

The present work reports on the isotopic characterization of rainfall and groundwater at Mt. Vesuvius. Values of δ ¹⁸O, monthly measured on rain samples collected during the period 2002–2004 in a rain-gauge network composed of 10 stations, were compared with meteorological and DEM data. Air temperature, controlled by the local orographic structure, was identified as the main factor influencing rain isotopic composition. Another important role is played by orographic clouds, whose condensation over the top of Mt. Vesuvius is responsible for anomalously high δ ¹⁸O values recorded in rain samples from the summit area of the volcanic edifice. A spatial model of rain isotopic composition, based on a 3D distribution of temperature derived by a 1 × 1 km DEM, was implemented and used for calculating the theoretical isotopic signature of seepage, further compared with data measured in the groundwater monitoring network. The analysis evidenced the role of local meteoric recharge as the main source feeding Mt. Vesuvius aquifers. The unique exception is the Olivella drainage gallery, located on the north-eastern flank of the volcanic edifice, whose isotopic composition is slightly more positive than the one expected for its altitude, likely caused by both evaporation processes and mixing with condensed hydrothermal vapor.