A Research on the Gravitational Wave Radiation of OJ 287

The research on quasar OJ 287 has lasted over 100 years. OJ 287 exhibits the phenomenon of periodic two-peak outbursts with the eruptive period of 12 years. Observations are rather well interpreted with the black hole binary model. In this model, the secondary black hole moves around the primary black hole and crashes against the accretion disk of the primary black hole, causing outbursts. This model reasonably explains the light curves of OJ 287 and correctly predicts the time of future outbursts. These indirectly justify the precessional effect of general relativity and the existence of gravitational waves. The massive black hole in the center of galaxy is an important kind of gravitational wave source. However, the number of the galaxies with precisely determined kinematical equations of inner components is quite small. The precise kinematic orbits of black holes are provided by the black hole binary model, so the radiation of gravitational waves can be studied on the basis of these kinematic orbits. Based on the existing work, the evolutionary relations of the radiation power and waveform of gravitational waves with time are first derived by using the post-Newtonian approximation method. According to the current progress of the detection equipment of gravitational waves, i.e., IPTA (International Pulsar Timing Array), the direct detection of gravitational waves from OJ 287 may be possible within the future decade.     

Precise Positions of Triton in 2010-2014 based on Gaia-DR2

With unique orbital and physical characteristics,Triton is a very important target because it may contain information of the origin and evolution of the solar s...     

Influence of Active Control Strategy on the Motion Compensation at the Truncated Point of Mooring Line

The maximum predicting error of the commonly used passive truncated mooring system method may reach 30% due to the difference of dynamic characteristics between the truncated and full-depth mooring line. In this paper, the experimental strategy called three-parameter (displacement, velocity and acceleration) active control method at the truncated point of mooring line is established to implement the synchronous equivalent of motion and force, and the realization of active truncated mooring system for model test is studied theoretically. The influences of three-parameter and one-parameter (displacement) active control strategies on the compensation effects are compared by numerical study. The results show that the established three-parameter active control method can feasibly realize the static and dynamic equivalent of truncated and full-depth mooring system, laying a good foundation for the following physical model test of active truncated mooring system.

     

基于GA-BP神经网络的高铁线下工程沉降预测模型

结合遗传算法与BP神经网络模型,介绍GA-BP模型的基本原理,建立高速铁路线下工程遗传BP神经网络沉降预测模型,并探讨模型精度的影响因子。通过实例分析表明GA-BP模型具有预测精度高、收敛速度快的特性,进而验证GA-BP模型在高速铁路线下工程沉降预测评估中的科学实用性。     

海表Ekman流不稳定性致新型次级环流

海洋上混合层中的次级环流可通过物质和能量的垂直输运和混合过程把海洋表层的热量、动量与物质携带到次表层,对海洋上层次级环流生成机制的研究可以丰富对上层海洋的理解和认识。文中利用线性稳定性理论讨论了经典海表Ekman流的不稳定性,提出Ekman流的不稳定性可生成一种新型的次级环流。这种次级环流的空间尺度与雷诺数、Ekman流的垂向衰减速率、水平湍黏性系数与垂向湍黏性系数比值等密切相关,尺度范围从数十米到数千米。数十米量级的次级环流其垂向结构以及次级环流流轴与主流场偏角都与Langmuir环流的特征极为相似,是Langmuir环流形成机制的一种新解释。千米量级的次级环流能够解释黄海浒苔的条带分布。此外,所得次级环流的流轴与主流之间的偏角与科氏力有显著关系,北半球次级环流流轴偏向主流左侧,南半球反之。     

Self-modifying CA model using dual ensemble Kalman filter for simulating urban land-use changes

There are many different methods to calibrate cellular automata (CA) models for better simulation results of urban land-use changes. However, few studies have been reported on combination of parameter update and error control using local data in CA calibration procedures. This paper presents a self-modifying CA model (SM-CA) that uses the dual ensemble Kalman filter (dual EnKF), which enables the CA model to simultaneously update model parameters and simulation results by merging observation data (local data). We applied the proposed model to simulate urban land-use changes in a 13-year period (1993–2005) in Dongguan City, a rapidly urbanizing region in south China. Simulation results indicate that this model yields better simulation results than the conventional logistic-regression CA and decision-tree CA models. For example, the validation is carried out using cross-tabulation matrix. The simulation results of SM-CA have allocation disagreement of 10.18%, 19.64%, and 30.03% in 1997, 2001, and 2005, respectively, which are 2.12%, 2.47%, and 6% lower than conventional logistic-regression CA models.     

2011年9月10日瑞昌、阳新间M4.6地震序列特征分析

2011年9月10日瑞昌、阳新间M4.6地震之后,震中区附近发生一系列余震活动.从序列特征、小震震源机制解、余震活动的时空分布特征以及震区地质构造情况等方面,对该地震序列进行初步研究,结果显示:M4.6地震序列中较强的地震活动主要沿NE走向的枫林桥断裂分布,ML2.0以下的微弱地震活动主要沿NW向的襄樊—广济断裂带武穴段分布,M4.6主震可能由NE向的枫林桥断裂所控制.     

Modeling the Yellow River sediment flux and its deposition patterns under climatological conditions

A numerical sediment transport model was embedded into a coupled wave-tide-circulation model to quantitatively estimate the suspended sediment fluxes (SSF) and distribution in different areas for the Yellow River derived sediment. The model is validated by comparing model simulated sediment deposition rates with those from observations. Simulated results show that the SSF of the Yellow River across two major sections (the Bohai Strait and the 37° N section) are highest during September and October, whereas for the 32° N section the flux is negligibly small (less than 0.1 kg/s). We demonstrate that the sediment flux is primarily driven by the buoyancy forcing of the Yellow River freshwater discharge and modulated by the wind-driven surface wave and circulation patterns in this region. The SSF across the Bohai Strait is about 30 % of the Yellow River discharge, while across the 37° N section it is 15.8 %. Therefore, about 70 % of the total discharged Yellow River sediments are deposited in the Bohai Sea, 14.1 % in the North Yellow Sea, and 13.9 % in the South Yellow Sea. There are two deposition branches in the Yellow Sea. The primary one is located off the eastern tip of the Shandong Peninsula and extends to the southwest off the coastline, which is consistent with the observed “Ω”-shape deposition pattern. This simulated tongue shape deposition pattern is isolated from the north by the strong resuspension off the eastern tip of Shandong Peninsula. The secondary branch extends to the middle of the South Yellow Sea and has been strengthened by resuspension process. The two deposition branches are separated by the wintertime Yellow Sea Warm Current in the bottom layer.     

OSL DATING OF THE HOLOCENE EOLIAN LOESS AND PALAEOSOL ON THE LOW TERRACE LAND IN THE UPPER HANJIANG RIVER VALLEY

通过对汉江上游湖北郧县-郧西段河谷的野外考察,选择前坊村汉江第一级阶地典型的黄土覆盖层剖面进行了深入研究.我们系统进行采样,分选出40～63μm石英颗粒,利用单片再生剂量法(SAR)技术,测得这些样品的光释光(OSL)年龄在2.90±0.15～16.76士0.60ka之间.OSL年龄值与地层深度表现出良好的对应关系.其中,利用释光信号组分拟合得到3种指数组分,发现快速组分达80％以上,且不同积分区间获得的De值处于一个坪区,各测片De值呈正态分布,说明这些风成沉积物晒退比较彻底.结合粒度参数Y值分析,确定这些沉积物属于风成堆积物.利用样品OSL年龄与气候替代指标,结合与秦岭北侧黄土剖面的对比,表明汉江上游河谷第一级阶地的风成堆积物从18.0ka开始堆积形成.自全新世以来受到不同程度的成壤改造作用,形成了与渭河谷地相似的Lt-Lt-So-Ll-MS土壤地层序列.同时发现在1.8ka(200A.D.)前后,汉江上游发生了一期特大古洪水事件.这些研究成果对于深入了解汉江上游水文气候变化具有重要意义.     

塔北南缘中奥陶统顺层岩溶储层特征及成因

塔北南缘中奥陶统地层序列完整,其上无长期暴露的不整合面,但是钻井揭示其中岩溶储层发育。以上奥陶统桑塔木组剥蚀线为界,塔北隆起可划分为潜山区和内幕区两部分,潜山区以洞穴型、裂缝+孔洞型储层为主;内幕区以裂缝+孔隙+孔洞型储层为主,孔隙+孔洞型储层和洞穴型储层也有发育。岩溶储层总体上呈层状分布,集中发育于中奥陶统顶面以下100 m范围内;平面上自潜山区向内幕区储层发育程度逐渐减弱,局部沿断裂集中分布。通过岩心、薄片、成像测井、水化学等资料和地质背景的分析认为,内幕区上奥陶统富泥质地层隔挡了潜流带地下水外泄地表,致使潜水面处于非完全稳定状态,其下"缓流带"具较高水势,为内幕区地下水运移提供了动力,从而在中奥陶统发生顺层岩溶作用。古隆起及斜坡背景为顺层岩溶储层的发育提供了地质背景,渗透性好的颗粒灰岩和裂缝系统为顺层岩溶作用提供了有效的流体通道,顺层岩溶作用则是各类储集空间形成的关键。