Simulating rainfall time-series: how to account for statistical variability at multiple scales?

Daily rainfall is a complex signal exhibiting alternation of dry and wet states, seasonal fluctuations and an irregular behavior at multiple scales that cannot be preserved by stationary stochastic simulation models. In this paper, we try to investigate some of the strategies devoted to preserve these features by comparing two recent algorithms for stochastic rainfall simulation: the first one is the modified Markov model, belonging to the family of Markov-chain based techniques, which introduces non-stationarity in the chain parameters to preserve the long-term behavior of rainfall. The second technique is direct sampling, based on multiple-point statistics, which aims at simulating a complex statistical structure by reproducing the same data patterns found in a training data set. The two techniques are compared by first simulating a synthetic daily rainfall time-series showing a highly irregular alternation of two regimes and then a real rainfall data set. This comparison allows analyzing the efficiency of different elements characterizing the two techniques, such as the application of a variable time dependence, the adaptive kernel smoothing or the use of low-frequency rainfall covariates. The results suggest, under different data availability scenarios, which of these elements are more appropriate to represent the rainfall amount probability distribution at different scales, the annual seasonality, the dry-wet temporal pattern, and the persistence of the rainfall events.     

The impact of dredge-fill on Posidonia oceanica seagrass meadows: regression and patterns of recovery

Posidonia oceanica meadows can be severely damaged by dredge-fill operations. We report on the construction of gas pipelines that occurred between 1981 and 1993 in SW Sicily, Italy. A large portion of the meadow was mechanically removed, and the excavated trench was filled with a mosaic of substrates, ranging from sand to consolidated rock debris. Meadow loss and recovery were quantified over 7 years after the end of operations. We recorded an overall loss of 81.20 ha of meadow. Substrate strongly affected recovery as the percent cover by P. oceanica consistently increased on calcareous rubble, reaching values of 44.37 ± 3.05% in shallow sites after 7 years, whereas no significant increase occurred on other substrates. As in the Mediterranean Sea exploitation of coastal areas continues to grow with consequent impacts on P. oceanica meadows, this case study illustrates how artificial rubble-like materials could be employed to support the restoration of damaged meadows.     

Engineering vibration monitoring by GPS： long duration records

Monitoring the performance of any structure requires real-time measurements of the change of position of critical points.Different techniques can be used for this purpose,each one offering advantages and disadvantages.The technique based on satellite positioning systems(GPS,GLONASS and the future GALILEO)seems to be very promising at least for long period structures.The GPS in particular provides sampling rates that are able to track dynamic displacements with high accuracy.Its service ability is indepen...     

Interactive effects of environmental variability and human impacts on the long-term dynamics of an Amazonian floodplain lake and a South Atlantic coastal lagoon

Human activities are exposing freshwater ecosystems to a wide range of stressors, whose direct and indirect effects can be alleviated or exacerbated through interactive effects with dynamic environmental drivers. This study used long-term data from two Neotropical lacustrine freshwater systems (Batata Lake, an Amazonian floodplain lake and Imboassica lagoon, an Atlantic coastal lagoon) subjected to different kinds of environmental fluctuations (i.e., flood pulse and sandbar opening) and anthropogenic impacts (i.e., siltation and eutrophication). Our objective was to determine whether the effects of human perturbations are contingent on modifications of important biotic and abiotic characteristics through environmental variability. For both ecosystems, environmental variability consistently interacted with anthropogenic perturbations to alter most of the variables analyzed, such as nutrient dynamics, chlorophyll-a concentration, zooplankton and benthic invertebrate species richness, and temporal community stability, which indicates that interactive effects between environmental variability and anthropogenic perturbations may impact a myriad of ecosystem properties. Furthermore, the nature of these interactive effects was highly dependent on the variable considered and on the ecosystem analyzed. For example, at Imboassica lagoon, sandbar openings interacted synergistically with trophic state to increase the phosphorus concentration in the water column. At Batata Lake, flooding generally alleviated the negative effects of siltation on species richness by both diluting inorganic suspended material concentration and by promoting local recruitment from the regional species pool. Such results indicate that our ability to understand and predict the outcome of anthropogenic impacts on inland aquatic systems can be hampered if we consider human stressors as “static” phenomena disconnected from dynamic interactions with major local environmental drivers.     

Measured performance of the application of EGNOS in the road traffic sector

European Geostationary Navigation Overlay Service (EGNOS) is a satellite-based system developed to improve the performance of GPS in the European region. It not only enhances the estimated positioning accuracy but also provides an integrity solution. We assess the EGNOS performance through analysis of real measurements, performed in different road user environments. We investigate the use of the integrity concept in future Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)-based applications in the road environment, considering both suburban and dense urban areas. The analysis is motivated by the fact that there is an increasing number of road applications, such as billing system, transportation of dangerous goods, remote tracking of trucks and snow plows, fleet management and “pay as you go” car insurances, where the system liability has to be guaranteed. The scope of the analysis is to investigate to which extent the use of the integrity concept can be used for such purpose; the assessment is based on real measurement campaigns in representative environments, providing statistical results in terms of accuracy and integrity, and in a wider sense of the feasibility of the use of EGNOS for augmenting the reliability of GNSS positioning for road applications.     

Understanding the statistical properties of the percent model affinity index can improve biomonitoring related decision making

The percent model affinity (PMA) index is used to measure the similarity of two probability profiles representing, for example, an ideal profile (i.e. reference condition) and a monitored profile (i.e. possibly impacted condition). The goal of this work is to study the effects of sample size, evenness, true value of the index and number of classes on the statistical properties of the estimator of the PMA index. We derive and extend previous formulas of the expectation and variance of the estimator for estimated monitored profile and fixed reference profile. Using the obtained extension, we find that the estimator is asymptotically unbiased, converging faster when the profiles differ. When both profiles are estimated, we calculate the expectation using transformation rules for expectation and in addition derive the formula for the estimator’s variance. Since the computation of the probabilities in the variance formula is slow, we study the behavior of the variance with simulation experiments and assess whether it could be approximated with the variance for the fixed reference profile. Finally, we provide a set of recommendations for the users of the PMA index to avoid the most common caveats of the index.     

Morphologic variability of exposed mass-transport deposits on the eastern slope of Gela Basin (Sicily channel)

The NE portion of Gela Basin in the Sicily Channel is affected by multiple slope failures originated during the late‐Quaternary. Basin sequences show evidence of stacked acoustically transparent and/or chaotic units, characterized by irregular upper surfaces, interpreted as mass‐transport deposits. The seafloor morphology also shows evidence of both old, partially buried, as well as recent slide products. Two recent slides exposed at seafloor, only 6 km apart (Twin Slides), are similar in geomorphological parameters, age and multistage evolution. Multistage failure of Twin Slides evolved from mud flows, derived from the extensive failure of less consolidated post‐glacial units, to localized slides (second stage of failure) affecting older and more consolidated materials. Although Twin Slides are very close to each other and have similar runout and fall height, they produced very dissimilar organization of the displaced masses, likely reflecting the distinct source units affected by failures. Integrating geophysical, sedimentological, structural and palaeontological data, a detailed investigation was conducted to determine the size and internal geometry of this mass‐transport complex, to explain the differentiated product and to shed light on its predisposing factors, triggers and timing.     

The STAGES view of red spirals and dusty red galaxies: mass-dependent quenching of star formation in cluster infall

We investigate the properties of optically passive spirals and dusty red galaxies in the A901/2 cluster complex at redshift ∼0.17 using rest-frame near-ultraviolet–optical spectral energy distributions, 24-μm infrared data and Hubble Space Telescope morphologies from the STAGES data set. The cluster sample is based on COMBO-17 redshifts with an rms precision of  σ _cz ≈ 2000 km s⁻¹  . We find that 'dusty red galaxies' and 'optically passive spirals' in A901/2 are largely the same phenomenon, and that they form stars at a substantial rate, which is only four times lower than that in blue spirals at fixed mass. This star formation is more obscured than in blue galaxies and its optical signatures are weak. They appear predominantly in the stellar mass range of  log  M _*/M_⊙=[10, 11]  where they constitute over half of the star-forming galaxies in the cluster; they are thus a vital ingredient for understanding the overall picture of star formation quenching in clusters. We find that the mean specific star formation rate (SFR) of star-forming galaxies in the cluster is clearly lower than in the field, in contrast to the specific SFR properties of blue galaxies alone, which appear similar in cluster and field. Such a rich red spiral population is best explained if quenching is a slow process and morphological transformation is delayed even more. At  log  M _*/M_⊙ < 10  , such galaxies are rare, suggesting that their quenching is fast and accompanied by morphological change. We note that edge-on spirals play a minor role; despite being dust reddened they form only a small fraction of spirals independent of environment.     

Forest structure of a maple old-growth stand: a case study on the Apennines mountains (Southern Italy)

In Europe, very small forest areas can be considered to be old-growth, and they are mainly located in Eastern Europe. The typical structures of old growth forests infrequently occur in Mediterranean mountainous environments, since they have been affected by human activities for centuries. This study focused on a remote and almost pure Italian maple stand located in southern Italy, which has not been managed for long time due to its inaccessibility. The effects of natural evolution on the forest stand were evaluated through the analysis of the spatial and chronological structure and the regeneration patterns, then estimating the amounts and quality of deadwood occurrence. Across the whole stand, all the trees with DBH (diameter at breast height) larger than 50 cm (LLT, large living trees) were measured (DBH and height) and age was also determined through a dendrochronological approach. The diameters observed ranged between 50 and 145 cm with ages of 120 to 250 years. The Latham index calculated for trees within the sample plot highlighted a multilayered canopy with a dominant layer of large living trees (age > 120 years). The size-class distribution of stems had a reverse-J shape, and basal area was 52 m² ha^-1. Deadwood was exclusively constituted by standing dead trees and CWD and its volume was on average 31 m³ ha^-1.Pure Italian maple forests are generally rare in Europe, and it was unexpected to find a forest stand characterized by a so complex structure with old growth attributes. The study of complex forest stand, even if small, could give precious information on the forest evolution, clarifying also diverse auto-ecological traits of tree species that usually are not common in our forests.