Fengyun-4 Geostationary Satellite-Based Solar Energy Nowcasting System and Its Application in North China

Surface solar irradiance (SSI) nowcasting (0–3 h) is an effective way to overcome the intermittency of solar energy and to ensure the safe operation of grid-connected solar power plants. In this study, an SSI estimate and nowcasting system was established using the near-infrared channel of Fengyun-4A (FY-4A) geostationary satellite. The system is composed of two key components: The first is a hybrid SSI estimation method combining a physical clear-sky model and an empirical cloudy-sky model. The second component is the SSI nowcasting model, the core of which is the derivation of the cloud motion vector (CMV) using the block-matching method. The goal of simultaneous estimation and nowcasting of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) is fulfilled. The system was evaluated under different sky conditions using SSI measurements at Xianghe, a radiation station in the North China Plain. The results show that the accuracy of GHI estimation is higher than that of DNI estimation, with a normalized root-mean-square error (nRMSE) of 22.4% relative to 45.4%. The nRMSE of forecasting GHI and DNI at 30–180 min ahead varied within 25.1%–30.8% and 48.1%–53.4%, respectively. The discrepancy of SSI estimation depends on cloud occurrence frequency and shows a seasonal pattern, being lower in spring–summer and higher in autumn–winter. The FY-4A has great potential in supporting SSI nowcasting, which promotes the development of photovoltaic energy and the reduction of carbon emissions in China. The system can be improved further if calibration of the empirical method is improved.     

Spatiotemporal Variations of Microwave Land Surface Emissivity (MLSE) over China Derived from Four-Year Recalibrated Fengyun 3B MWRI Data

Microwave Land Surface Emissivity (MLSE) over China under both clear and cloudy sky conditions was retrieved using measurements of recalibrated microwave brightness temperatures (Tbs) from Fengyun-3B Microwave Radiation Imager (FY-3B MWRI), combined with cloud properties derived from Himawari-8 Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) observations. The contributions from cloud particles and atmospheric gases to the upwelling Tbs at the top of atmosphere were calculated and removed in radiative transfer. The MLSEs at horizontal polarizations at 10.65, 18.7, and 36.5 GHz during 7 July 2015 to 30 June 2019 over China showed high values in the southeast vegetated area and low values in the northwest barren, or sparsely vegetated, area. The maximum values were found in the belt area of the Qinling-Taihang Mountains and the eastern edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, which is highly consistent with MLSEs derived from AMSR-E. It demonstrates that the measurements of FY-3B MWRI Tbs, including its calibration and validation, are reliable, and the retrieval algorithm developed in this study works well. Seasonal variations of MLSE in China are mainly driven by the combined effects of vegetation, rainfall, and snow cover. In tropical and southern forest regions, the seasonal variation of MLSE is small due to the enhancement from vegetation and the suppression from rainfall. In the boreal area, snow causes a significant decrease of MLSE at 36.5 GHz in winter. Meanwhile, the MLSE at lower frequencies experiences less suppression. In the desert region in Xinjiang, increases of MLSEs at all frequencies are observed with increasing snow cover.     

HDD铺管引起地表工后变形的数值模拟分析

水平定向钻进（HDD）是一种重要的非开挖铺管技术,在非开挖领域应用非常广泛。由于其会扰动周围地层以及造成地层损失,进而造成一定程度的地表变形,如地表沉降、地表水平变形等。本文采用有限差分数值模拟方法,运用FLAC3D软件分析了HDD铺管的引起的地表工后变形问题;综合考虑了不同地层内聚力、地表荷载及扩孔级数情况下的地表工后变形。     

西安地铁四号线沿线地裂缝的灾害分析与对策研究

西安地裂缝是一种地区性的地质灾害现象。目前西安共发育有14条地裂缝。地铁四号线将穿越13条,给隧道施工造成了诸多考验。文章选取西安市地铁四号线沿线的地裂缝灾害作为研究对象。探讨了地裂缝对隧道工程的影响因素和致灾特点、以及相关的评估理论方法。最后针对地裂缝灾害特征以及工程特点提出若干防治措施,对于科学研究地裂缝的灾害特点、合理防治地裂缝的灾害发生具有一定的指导意义。     

泗水南部矿泉水分布特征及开发建议

根据泗水县地下水调查与监测,结合已有资料,经过综合分析,提出了对泗水南部灰岩地区矿泉水矿田的认识,重点介绍了泗水矿泉水矿田的地质背景,形成分布特征,同时提出了几点开发建议,为进一步开发和研究泗水矿泉水矿田指明了重要的思路和方向。     

三肇凹陷东部姚家组一段物源体系分析

三肇凹陷东部姚家组一段葡萄花油层为本区主要储层和含油层位,也是区内目前增储上产的重要目的层。储层的分布与物源有密切的联系,物源体系分析是油气勘探的一项重要工作。本文通过岩心观察描述以及分析化验资料的综合研究,从重矿物组合、ZTR指数变化特征、泥岩颜色区域分布以及砂体展布特征等方面对物源方向进行了分析,确定了三肇凹陷东部姚家组一段葡萄花油层物源体系,并对每个物源的影响范围和强度变化进行了综合分析和厘定,为下一步沉积体系的精细研究和储层预测奠定了基础。     

瞬时单位线法在浙江省应用的几个问题研究

纳希瞬时单位线在浙江省地区得到应用,为了使该方法适用于该地区,需要对其中的模型参数和非线性外延控制两个问题进行研究。通过对瞬时单位线法中n和K参数作用的研究分析,结合浙江省地区的实际情况,研究出按照流域面积大小分级取用n值的关系;同时通过对浙江省地区实际水雨情进行计算分析,得出临界雨强控制在30～40mm/h在浙江省地区是合理的。该成果为纳希瞬时单位线在浙江省地区的使用提供了参考依据。     

超基性岩红土风化壳中镍的表生富集规律及矿化结构研究 ——以印尼苏拉威西岛Kolonodale矿区为例

文章选取印尼苏拉威西岛Kolonodale红土型镍矿区为研究区,对201个浅井剖面共采取3 161件风化壳样品,进行了w(Ni)值的测试,以揭示超基性岩红土风化壳中Ni的表生富集规律及矿化结构特征。研究结果表明,在平面上,矿区内风化壳的w(Ni)平均值的高低与地形地貌关系密切。斜坡带、坡脚堆积带的风化壳为含镍高值区,其w(Ni)值为0.8%~1.8%;山顶平台区、山脊的风化壳为含镍低值区,其w(Ni)值为0.7%~1.4%。在垂向上,风化产物的w(Ni)值的高低与取样深度及样品属性密切相关。w(Ni)值随着红土带→腐岩带→基岩带的变化出现低值(0.85%~1.55%)→高值(1.15%~4.75%)→低值(≤0.55%)的波动变化规律。矿层的产状(分布、深度、厚度)与风化壳产状之间表现出明显的正相关关系。矿区内的低品位矿层〔1.5%≤w(Ni)≤2.0%〕和高品位矿层〔w(Ni)≥2.0%〕单独或组合发育,产出"正常型双层矿化"、"倒置型双层矿化"、"低品位单层矿化"、"高品位单层矿化"和"叠层矿化"等5种矿化结构类型。综合分析认为,富镁及中等程度蛇纹石化的超基性岩母岩、热带雨林气候环境是矿区内发育富镍红土风化壳的首要条件。吸附、离子交换以及次生沉淀等3种成矿作用的共同发育,导致了红土风化壳中Ni表生矿化的连续性、矿石类型的多样性及特高品位矿石的形成。矿床中矿化结构类型的多样化是区域构造背景、地形地貌、构造发育、水文条件等诸多因素耦合作用的结果。文章指出,在今后的红土型镍矿床的找矿勘查过程中,需要综合考虑各类内、外生控矿因素对矿床发育的影响,总结矿区尺度的矿化结构规律,可有效地指导矿床勘查工作。     

西藏努日矽卡岩型铜钨钼矿辉钼矿 Re-Os定年及其地质意义

西藏努日层状矽卡岩型铜钨钼矿床是冈底斯东段南缘斑岩-矽卡岩铜多金属成矿带上规模最大的矿床。笔者对采自该矿床的9件不同产状、不同形态含钼矿石中的辉钼矿进行了Re-Os同位素组成分析,获得其模式年龄为23.46~24.77 Ma,等时线年龄为(23.36±0.49) Ma(MSWD=0.60),模式年龄与等时线年龄结果基本一致。由于辉钼矿与黄铜矿、白钨矿呈共生关系,并考虑到该矿区内黄铜矿的年龄〔(23.75±0.18) Ma〕(作者未发表数据),表明努日矽卡岩型铜钨钼矿床的成矿时代为23~24 Ma。结合前人研究资料可见,冈底斯南缘克鲁-冲木达斑岩-矽卡岩铜多金属成矿带从32 Ma至23 Ma发生了强烈的成矿作用。该成矿带的成矿时代明显有别于后碰撞期地壳伸展环境下形成的冈底斯斑岩铜矿带,显示出其为一套独立的成矿事件。该成矿事件可能主要受冈底斯南缘的晚碰撞走滑环境的控制。努日矿床成矿时代的确定及晚碰撞成矿事件的厘定,为今后研究和勘查该成矿带内同类型矿床提供了重要依据。     

皖南新元古代冰期地层再认识

前人认为皖南地区新元古代冰期地层存在两套冰碛岩。通过对皖南蓝田新元古界剖面和皖南地区的另外3条新元古界剖面的重新观察,发现该剖面只存在一套冰碛层和一套盖帽白云岩,均未发现间冰期地层。植被覆盖和地层错断是造成前人认为本地区新元古代冰期地层存在两套冰碛层和两套盖帽白云岩的主要原因。这一套冰碛层与中国南方扬子区南华系南沱组相当。