Turnover Frequency in Solar Microwave Bursts with an Extremely Flat Optically Thin Spectrum

Four microwave bursts have been selected from the Nobeyama Radio Polarimeter (NoRP) observations with an extremely flat spectrum in the optically thin part and a very hard spectral index between 0 and ?1 in the maximum phase of all bursts. It is found that the time evolution of the turnover frequency is inversely proportional to the time profiles of the radio flux in all bursts. Based on the nonthermal gyrosynchrotron theory of Ramaty (Astrophys. J. 158, 753, 1969), the local magnetic field strength and the electron spectral index are calculated uniquely from the observed radio spectral index and the turnover frequency. We found that the electron energy spectrum is very hard (spectral index 1?–?2), and the time variation of the magnetic field strength is also inversely proportional to the radio flux as a function of time in all bursts. Hence, the time evolution of the turnover frequency can be explained directly by its dependence on the local magnetic field strength. The high turnover frequency (several tens of GHz) is mainly caused by a strong magnetic field of up to several hundred gauss, and probably by the Razin effect under a high plasma density over \(10^{10}~\mbox{cm}^{-3}\) in the maximum phase of these bursts. Therefore, the extremely flat microwave spectrum can be well understood by the observed high turnover frequency and the calculated hard electron spectral index.     

城市轨道交通高架站雷击时磁场空间分布模拟

雷击建筑物引起的电磁干扰问题是建筑物雷电防护的重要研究课题。利用有限元法（FEM）模拟得到轨道交通高架站遭雷击时磁场空间分布并分析了其特征。给出了在IES电磁仿真软件中利用有限元法进行磁场数值模拟的方法,以北京市房山地铁线长阳高架站为例,通过建立模型、设定材料、施加激励源、网格剖分、后期处理等步骤,定量得到雷击时该高架站内的磁场分布数值,作出了磁场空间分布图,分析了所得磁场特征,确定了雷击磁场干扰的强度和范围,提出了对应的防护方法和措施。计算了采取屏蔽措施后的高架站磁场衰减及设备到引下线的安全距离。     

特殊建筑物雷击截收面积计算

从计算雷击截收面积的逻辑关系出发,以斜坡类建筑和圆顶形建筑两类特殊建筑为例,通过建立相关模型和数学公式,分析计算应从何位置按照何扩大宽度往外偏移能准确地求出截收面积。对于单檐斜坡类建筑、重檐建筑或古塔,根据房檐到屋脊（塔尖）的水平距离和垂直距离的关系,判断出应该按房檐还是屋脊（塔尖）偏移。对于圆顶形或椭圆顶形建筑,利用建筑屋顶的数学公式,建立了到圆心中轴线距离的数学公式,并对其求导数,得到了导数为0时点的横、纵坐标,此点即为偏移点位置,同时得到了对应的扩大宽度。利用AutoCAD偏移及求面积命令得到截收面积,为防雷设计及雷电灾害风险评估中雷击截收面积的准确计算提供参考。     

Performance of the seasonal forecasting of the Asian summer monsoon by BCC_CSM1.1(m)

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of Asian summer monsoon prediction skill as a function of lead time and its relationship to sea surface temperature prediction using the seasonal hindcasts of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model, BCC_CSM1.1(m). For the South and Southeast Asian summer monsoon, reasonable skill is found in the model's forecasting of certain aspects of monsoon climatology and spatiotemporal variability. Nevertheless, deficiencies such as significant forecast errors over the tropical western North Pacific and the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean are also found. In particular, overestimation of the connections of some dynamical monsoon indices with large-scale circulation and precipitation patterns exists in most ensemble mean forecasts, even for short lead-time forecasts. Variations of SST, measured by the first mode over the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans, as well as the spatiotemporal features over the Niño3.4 region, are overall well predicted. However, this does not necessarily translate into successful forecasts of the Asian summer monsoon by the model. Diagnostics of the relationships between monsoon and SST show that difficulties in predicting the South Asian monsoon can be mainly attributed to the limited regional response of monsoon in observations but the extensive and exaggerated response in predictions due partially to the application of ensemble average forecasting methods. In contrast, in spite of a similar deficiency, the Southeast Asian monsoon can still be forecasted reasonably, probably because of its closer relationship with large-scale circulation patterns and El Niño-Southern Oscillation.     

BJ-RUC产品在小区供暖供回水温度预报的应用研究

利用气象部门快速更新的BJ-RUC(Beijing-Rapid UpdateCycle)数值预报系统获得的24 h逐时的室外温度预报资料,应用能量平衡原理,建立建筑物热损失方程和供热量方程,从而推导出室外温度和室内温度、供水、回水温度的预报模型。用此模型对2010年3月1—15日期间的供、回水温度进行预报模拟,与北京市海园物业供热单位实况值进行对比分析。检验结果表明,该模型模拟的室内温度与设计要求的室内温度(20℃)之间的均方根误差为0.25℃,海园物业室内温度监测点数值与20℃之间的均方根误差为1.53℃。模拟的供、回水温度与海园物业监测点供水温度的均方根误差分别为3.69℃和3.80℃。     

基于模糊评判的数控机床零部件制造工艺FMECA研究

以数控机床零部件的制造工艺为研究对象,对其实施改进的制造工艺FMECA,通过梯形模糊数评判的方法确定出工艺FMECA中风险优先数的排序,利用模糊综合评判方法确定出工艺系统的风险等级,有效地找出薄弱工艺环节并采取改进措施,从而提高数控机床零部件制造工艺可靠性.     

2011年盛夏石家庄一次短时暴雨分析

2011年7月26日石家庄市出现一次暴雨冰雹天气,其特点是500 h Pa及以上高空强冷空气导致高空形势在12 h内发生剧变,短波槽快速南下,致使探空观测和数值预报失灵。本文对其他监测资料进行分析,发现这种剧烈变化的天气有明显特征:卫星云图上河套北部逗点云系尾长而粗壮,有向南发展趋势,云系后部的暗区表明干冷空气侵入,与低层暖湿空气形成对流云,尾部断裂表明冷空气加速南下。单站要素变化显示,石家庄地面假相当位温比正常值高了8℃,出现异常不稳定能量。强对流天气发生在假相当位温密集带内,能量中心假相当位温最高达到90℃以上,100 km内假相当位温温差超过25℃,最大降雨出现在假相当位温密集带内。雷达回波呈西南—东北带状排列,前部最大强度为65 d BZ,强回波前形成阵风锋,正负最大速度均超过20 m/s,飑线自西向东移动,它的移向和发展程度决定降雨和冰雹的路径和强度。石家庄市区风向转变和形成地面辐合线分别较降水起始时间提前21 min和30 min。     

The heating of the solar transition region

The temperature curve in the solar chromosphere has puzzled astronomers for a long time.Referring to the structure of supergranular cells,we propose an in ductive heating model.It mainly includes the following three steps.(1) A small-scale dynamo exists in the supergranulation and produces alternating small-scale magnetic fluxes;(2) The supergranular flow distributes these small-scale fluxes according to a regular pattern;(3) A skin effect occurs in the alternating and regularly-distributed magnetic fields.The induced current is concentrated near the transition region and heats it by resistive dissipation.