Deterministic non-linear wave prediction using probe data

The accurate prediction of non-linear sea states represents a great challenge, with a number of applications in oceanography, marine engineering, security of people and marine transportation, etc. In this paper, we report on the development of two efficient deterministic prediction models for 2D irregular wave-fields. These models are based on the exploitation of wave elevation time series given by one or more probes and on the use of two different numerical models for the wave-fields simulation. Two effective data assimilation processes are developed to improve the wave-field estimates obtained from the study of one or several probe signals, so that we obtain proper initial conditions for the forecast. The assimilation schemes have been validated on the reconstruction of model-generated observations and accurate predictions of the corresponding synthetic wave-fields evolution have been obtained.     

Observed intra-seasonal to interannual variability of the upper ocean thermal structure in the southeastern Arabian Sea during 2002–2008

The southeastern Arabian Sea (SEAS), located in the Indian Ocean warm pool, is a key-region of the regional climate system. It is suspected to play an important role in the dynamics of the Asian summer monsoon system. The present study reports the salient features derived from a newly harvested observational dataset consisting of repeated fortnightly XBT transects in the SEAS over the period 2002–2008. The fortnightly resolution of such a multi-year record duration is unprecedented in this part of the world ocean and provides a unique opportunity to examine the observed variability of the near-surface thermal structure over a wide spectrum, from intra-seasonal to interannual timescales. We find that most of the variability is trapped in the thermocline, taking the form of upwelling and downwelling motions of the thermal stratification. The seasonal variations are consistent with past studies and confirm the role of the monsoonal wind forcing through linear baroclinic waves (coastally-trapped Kelvin and planetary Rossby waves). Sub-seasonal variability takes the form of anomalous events lasting a few weeks to a few months and occurs at two preferred timescales: in the 30–110 day band, within the frequency domain of the Madden–Julian oscillation and in the 120–180 day band. While this sub-seasonal variability appears fairly barotropic in the offshore region, the sign of the anomaly in the upper thermocline is opposite to that in its lower part on many occasions along the coast. Our dataset also reveals relatively large interannual temperature variations of about 1 °C from 50 to 200 m depth that reflect a considerable year-to-year variability of the magnitude of both upwelling and downwelling events. This study clearly demonstrates the necessity for sustained long-term temperature measurements in the SEAS.     

A perturbation theory for Love waves in anelastic media

Summary. We give a systematic formulation and a rigorous justification of a perturbation technique for the computation of the eigenvalues and eigenfunctions of Love waves (and toroidal oscillations by an appropriate change for variables) in an anelastic medium with a constitutive law modelling geophysical media of current interest such as the Kelvin—Voigt Solid, the Maxwell Solid, the Standard Linear Solid, and the Standard Linear Solid with a continuous spectrum of relaxation times. We develop expressions relating the eigenvalues of eigenfunctions for Love waves in a continuously varying vertically stratified anelastic half-space to the corresponding elastic eigenvalues and eigenfunctions. Analytically, our correspondence principle has the form of a regular perturbation expansion in terms of a parameter for both the eigenvalues and eigenfunctions. The identification of ɛ is motivated by the dissipativity principle of viscoelasticity theory. Moreover, we show that our correspondence principle applies respectively only in the high and low frequency range for the Maxwell and Kelvin—Voigt Solids. Outside of the applicable range of frequencies, our correspondence principle yields no useful information. For the family of Standard Linear Solids it is uniformly applicable for all non-zero frequencies.
We also derive an explicit formula to estimate the radius of convergence of our perturbation expansions. This estimate of the radius of convergence for each eigenvalue and eigenfunction is functionally defined by the constitutive model for the anelastic medium. The estimate is frequency dependent and depends on the separation distance between the eigenvalue and the remainder of the spectrum of the corresponding elastic problem.     

The Equatorial Atlantic Mid-Ocean Channel: An Ultra High-Resolution Image of Its Burial History Based on TOPAS Profiles

Multibeam bathymetric and ultra high-resolution seismic data reveal that the distal course of the Equatorial Atlantic Mid-Ocean Channel (EAMOC) extends further east and south than was previously known, and is controlled by the presence of morphologic highs related to the Fernando de Noronha Fracture Zone. Distal course of the EAMOC is buried by sediments, and does not have bathymetric expression on the seafloor. The channel fill consists of three seismic sequences, suggesting that the recent geological evolution of the channel is composed of successive phases of decreasing sedimentary activity that finally resulted in its complete burial. Tectonic and volcanic activity related to the Fernando de Noronha Fracture Zone and Ridge, together with the effect of strong pulses of the Antarctic bottom water current during the upper Pliocene are suggested to have contributed to the progressive burial and the final abandonment of the EAMOC.     

A preliminary investigation of siliceous microfossil succession in late Quaternary sediments from Lake Baikal, Siberia

Siliceous microfossil assemblage succession was analyzed in a 100 m sediment core from Lake Baikal, Siberia. The core was recovered from the lake's central basin at a water depth of 365 m. Microfossil abundance varied greatly within the intervals sampled, ranging from samples devoid of siliceous microfossils to samples with up to 3.49 × 10¹¹ microfossils g^-1 sediment. Fluctuations in abundance appear to reflect trends in the marine ¹⁸O record, with peak microfossil levels generally representing climate optima. Microfossil taxa present in sampled intervals changed considerably with core depth. Within each sample a small number of endemic diatom species dominated the assemblage. Changes in dominant endemic taxa between sampled intervals ranged from extirpation of some taxa, to shifts in quantitative abundance. Differences in microfossil composition and the association of variations in abundance with climate fluctuations suggest rapid speciation in response to major climatic excursions.     

Saturn's rings—A survey

In this review paper we first discuss the dimensions of major ring features and of the disk of the planet. We then summarize the observed photometric parameters, and because frozen H₂O appears to be a major ring constituent, we compare the appropriate photometric properties of various forms of snow with those of the ring. We examine several ring models, noting certain characteristics that any model should supply. In our view, a physical means of accounting for the observed ring thickness of ～2 km is a prime requirement. There appears to be one model that presents no clear observational or theoretical inconsistency. Finally, we list certain problems whose solutions should broaden our knowledge of the ring system.     

Persistent halogenated compounds in black guillemots (Cepphus grylle) from Greenland--levels, compound patterns and spatial trends

Twenty-seven black guillemot eggs and 39 livers were analysed for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), chlorinated pesticides including chlordane-related compounds and toxaphene, and polybrominated diphenylethers (PBDEs). The samples were collected at Qeqertarsuaq (Godhavn, West Greenland) and Ittoqqortoormiit (Scoresbysund, East Greenland). The concentrations of halogenated organic compounds in samples from East Greenland were somewhat higher than the corresponding concentrations from West Greenland. Differences in compound patterns were found between West and East Greenland, with higher percentages of the heavier PCB molecules, p,p(')-DDE and alpha-HCH in the samples from Ittoqqortoormiit. Similarly, different levels and different compositions were observed for eggs and livers. The eggs had generally higher concentrations of all compounds as well as higher percentages of CHB-50, CHB-62 and alpha-HCH than liver samples from the same area. Dividing the liver samples into age groups revealed increasing concentrations with age.     

Free-surface flow in porous media and periodic solution of the shallow-flow approximation

The equations describing the flow of liquid in a porous medium with a free surface are expanded when the shallow-flow assumption holds. Second-order theory is used to describe the propagation of steady periodic motion in the medium, driven by the oscillating level of a reservoir in contact with it. A linearized solution of the second-order theory is compared with a numerical solution and is found adequate even when the amplitude of the motion is comparable to the mean depth of the liquid. The predictions of the analysis are found in good agreement with two laboratory experiments.     

Impact of explosive eruption scenarios at Vesuvius

In the paper the first attempt at the definition of a model to assess the impact of a range of different volcanic hazards on the building structures is presented. This theoretical approach has been achieved within the activities of the EXPLORIS Project supported by the EU. A time history for Sub-Plinian I eruptive scenario of the Vesuvius is assumed by taking advantage of interpretation of historical reports of volcanic crises of the past [Carafa, G. 1632. In opusculum de novissima Vesuvij conflagratione, epistola isagogica, 2^a ed. Napoli, Naples; Mascolo, G.B., 1634. De incendio Vesuvii excitato xvij. Kal. Ianuar. anno trigesimo primo sæculi Decimiseptimi libri X. Cum Chronologia superiorum incendiorum; & Ephemeride ultimi. Napoli; Varrone, S., 1634. Vesuviani incendii historiae libri tres. Napoli], numerical simulations [Neri, A., Esposti Ongaro, T., Macedonio, G., Gidaspow, D., 2003. Multiparticle simulation of collapsing volcanic columns and pyroclastic flows. J. Geophys. Res. Lett. 108, 2202. doi:10.1029/2001 JB000508; Macedonio, G., Costa, A., Longo, A., 2005. HAZMAP: a computer model for volcanic ash fallout and assessment of subsequent hazard. Comput. Geosci. 31,837–845; Costa, A., Macedonio, G., Folch, A., 2006. A three-dimensional Eulerian model for transport and deposition of volcanic ashes. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 241,634–647] and experts' elicitations [Aspinall, W.P., 2006. Structured elicitation of expert judgment for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment in volcanic eruptions. In: Mader, H.M. Coles, S.G. Connor, C.B. Connor, L.J. (Eds), Statistics in Volcanology. Geological Society of London on behalf of IAVCEI, pp.15–30; Woo, G., 1999. The Mathematics of Natural Catastrophes. Imperial College Press, London] from which the impact on the building structures is derived. This is achieved by an original definition of vulnerability functions for multi-hazard input and a dynamic cumulative damage model. Factors affecting the variability of the final scenario are highlighted. The results show the high sensitivity of hazard combinations in time and space distribution and address how to mitigate building vulnerability to subsequent eruptive phenomena [Baxter, P., Spence, R., Zuccaro, G., 2008-this issue. Risk mitigation and emergency measures at Vesuvius].     

Geomechanical modelling to assess fault integrity at the CO2CRC Otway Project,Australia

This paper presents the first published 3D geomechanical modelling study of the CO2CRC Otway Project, located in the state of Victoria, Australia. The results of this work contribute to one of the main objectives of the CO2CRC, which is to demonstrate the feasibility of CO₂ storage in a depleted gas reservoir. With this aim in mind, a one-way coupled flow and geomechanics model is presented, with the capability of predicting changes to the in situ stress field caused by changes in reservoir pressure owing to CO₂ production and injection. A parametric study investigating the pore pressures required to reactivate key, reservoir-bounding faults has been conducted, and the results from the numerical simulation and analytical analysis are compared. The numerical simulation indicates that the critical pore fluid pressure to cause fault reactivation is 1.15 times the original pressure as opposed to 1.5 times for the comparable analytical model. Possible reasons for the differences between the numerical and analytical models can be ascribed to the higher degree of complexity incorporated in the numerical model. Heterogeneity in terms of lateral variations of hydrological and mechanical parameters, effect of topography, presence of faults and interaction between cells are considered to be the main sources for the different estimation of critical pore pressure. The numerical model, which incorporates this greater complexity, is able then to better describe the state of stress that acts in the subsurface compared with a simple 1D analytical model. Moreover, the reactivation pressures depend mainly on the state of stress described; therefore we suggest that numerical models be performed when possible.