Floods at the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains — A Polish-Swiss research project

The present paper introduces the topical area of the Polish-Swiss research project FLORIST (Flood risk on the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains), informs on its objectives, and reports on initial results. The Tatra Mountains are the area of the highest precipitation in Poland and largely contribute to flood generation. The project is focused around four competence clusters: observation-based climatology, model-based climate change projections and impact assessment, dendrogeomorphology, and impact of large wood debris on fluvial processes. The knowledge generated in the FLORIST project is likely to have impact on understanding and interpretation of flood risk on the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains, in the past, present, and future. It can help solving important practical problems related to flood risk reduction strategies and flood preparedness.     

Semi-Periodic Sequences and Extraneous Events in Earthquake Forecasting. II: Application,Forecasts for Japan and Venezuela

In order to analyze observed seismicity in central Japan and Venezuela, we applied a new method to identify semi-periodic sequences in the occurrence times of large earthquakes, which allows for the presence of multiple periodic sequences and/or events not belonging to any sequence in the time series. We also explored a scheme for diminishing the effects of a sharp cutoff magnitude threshold in selecting the events to analyze. A main four-event sequence with probability P _c  = 0.991 of not having occurred by chance was identified for earthquakes with M ≥ 8.0 in central Japan. Venezuela is divided, from West to East, into four regions; for each of these, the magnitude ranges and identified sequences are as follows. Region 1: M ≥ 6.0, a six-event sequence with P _c  = 0.923, and a four-event sequence with P _c  = 0.706. Region 2: M ≥ 5.6, a five-event sequence with P _c  = 0.942. Region 3: M ≥ 5.6, a four-event sequence with P _c  = 0.882. Region 4: M ≥ 6.0, a five-event sequence with P _c  = 0.891. Forecasts are made and evaluated for all identified sequences having four or more events and probabilities ≥0.5. The last event of all these sequences was satisfactorily aftcast by previous events. Whether the identified sequences do, in fact, correspond to physical processes resulting in semi-periodic seismicity is, of course, an open question; but the forecasts, properly used, may be useful as a factor in seismic hazard estimation.     

Semi-Periodic Sequences and Extraneous Events in Earthquake Forecasting: I. Theory and Method,Parkfield Application

We present a new method to identify semi-periodic sequences in the occurrence times of large earthquakes, which allows for the presence of multiple semi-periodic sequences and/or events not belonging to any identifiable sequence in the time series. The method, based on the analytic Fourier transform, yields estimates of the departure from periodicity of an observed sequence, and of the probability that the sequence is not due to chance. These estimates are used to make and to evaluate forecasts of future events belonging to each sequence. Numerous tests with synthetic catalogs show that the method is surprisingly capable of correctly identifying sequences, unidentifiable by eye, in complicated time series. Correct identification of a given sequence depends on the number of events it contains, on the sequence’s departure from periodicity, and, in some cases, on the choice of starting and ending times of the analyzed time window; as well as on the total number of events in the time series. Some particular data combinations may result in spectra where significant periods are obscured by large amplitudes artifacts of the transform, but artifacts can be usually recognized because they lack harmonics; thus, in most of these cases, true semi-periodic sequences may not be identified, but no false identifications will be made. A first example of an application of the method to real seismicity data is the analysis of the Parkfield event series. The analysis correctly aftcasts the September 2004 earthquake. Further applications to real data from Japan and Venezuela are shown in a companion paper.     

Molecular and isotopic characterization of organic samples from the wreck of the Saint-Etienne merchant ship (XVIIIth century): Identification of pitch,fat, hair and sulfur

The wreck U Pezzo, excavated within the Saint Florent Gulf in northern Corsica was identified as the pink, Saint Etienne, a merchant ship which sank on January 31, 1769. In order to determine the composition of organic materials used to coat the hull or to waterproof different parts of the pink, a study of several samples, using molecular biomarker and carbon isotopic analysis, was initiated. The results revealed that the remarkable yellow coat, covering the outside planks of the ship’s bottom under the water line, is composed of sulfur, tallow (of ox and not of cetacean origin) and black pitch which corresponds to a mixture called “couroi” or “stuff”. Onboard ropes had been submitted to a tarring treatment with pitch. Hairs mixed with pitch were identified in samples collected between the two layers of the hull or under the sheathing planking. The study also provides a key model for weathering of pitch, as different degrees of degradation were found between the surface and the heart of several samples. Accordingly, molecular parameters for alteration were proposed. Furthermore novel mixed esters between terpenic and diterpenic alcohols and the free major fatty acids (C_14:0, C_16:0, C_18:0) were detected in the yellow coat.     

Chemical and isotopic variations in the Wiśniówka Mała mine pit water,Holy Cross Mountains (south-central Poland)

In 2005 and 2006, hydrogeochemical study was carried out in the bipartite Wiśniówka Mała pit lake of the Holy Cross Mountains (south-central Poland). This is the largest acidic water body in Poland. This report presents the element concentrations in the water and sediment, stable sulfur and oxygen isotope ratios in the soluble sulfates, and stable oxygen isotope ratio in the water. The scope of the investigation also encompassed mineralogical examinations (scanning electron microscope, X-ray diffraction) of the sediment. The results of this study show that there is a spatial and temporal variability in concentrations of most elements and sulfur isotope ratios in the examined pit lake. The water of the western pond displayed a lower pH with a mean of 3.73 and higher conductivity (390 μS cm⁻¹) as well as higher concentrations of sulfates (156 mg L⁻¹) and most of the cations and anions. The concentrations of Fe²⁺ and Fe³⁺ averaged 0.8 and 0.4 mg·L⁻¹. In contrast, the eastern pond water revealed a higher pH (mean of 4.36), lower conductivity (293 μS cm⁻¹) and lower sulfate (90 mg L⁻¹) and trace metal levels. Similar variations were recorded in the stable sulfur isotope ratios. The δ³⁴S_V-CDT(SO₄ ²⁻) values in the water of the western pit pond were in the range of −6.7 to −4.6‰ (mean of −5.6‰), whereas that in the eastern pit pond ranged from −2.2 to −0.9‰ (−1.6‰). The alkalinity of the entire lake water was below 0.1 mg·L⁻¹ CaCO₃. No distinct difference in the δ¹⁸O_V-SMOW(SO₄ ²⁻) was noted between the western and eastern pit ponds. Compared to the Purple Pond in the Sudetes (Poland) and similar sites throughout the world, the examined pit lake is highlighted by distinctly low concentrations of sulfates, iron and other trace metals. Based on this and other studies performed in the Holy Cross Mountains, a conclusion can be drawn that the SO₄ ²⁻ in the Wiśniówka Mała pit lake water is a mixture of SO₄ ²⁻ derived from the following sources: (1) pyrite oxidation (especially in the western pond water), (2) leaching of soluble sulfates from soils and waste material, as well as (3) subordinate deposition of airborne sulfate precipitation.     

Applying numerical modeling for designing strategies of effective groundwater remediation

Selection of effective groundwater remediation scenarios is a complex issue that requires understanding of contaminants’ transport processes. The effectiveness of cleanup measures may be verified by fate and transport numerical modeling. The goal of this work was to present the usefulness of fate and transport modeling for planning, verification and fulfillment of effective groundwater remediation methods. Selection methodology was developed, which is based on results of numerical flow and transport modeling. A field site located in south-east Poland was selected as a case study, in which groundwater contamination of trichloroethene and tetrachloroethene was detected. The results indicated that “pump and treat” was the most effective among the studied remediation methods, followed by permeable reactive barrier and in situ chemical oxidation. Natural attenuation-based remediation was demonstrated to be the least suitable, as it requires the longest time to reach predefined remediation goals, principally due to low sorption capacity and unfavorable hydrogeochemical conditions for biodegradation. Fate and transport numerical modeling allowed simulating different remediation strategies, and thus the decision-making process was facilitated.     

Lightcurves and the axis of rotation of 433 Eros

Ten lightcurves and UBV photometry of 433 Eros were obtained between August 1972 and May 1975. The absolute magnitude of the lightcurve maximum is 10.75 and the phase coefficient is 0.025 mag/deg. There may be a small difference in B-V color between the northern and southern hemispheres. The pole of the axis of rotation is directed toward λ₀ = 16°, β₀ = 12°, ecliptic longitude and latitude, respectively, and the rotation is direct with a sidereal period of 0.^d219599 or 5^h16^m13^s4 ± 0.^s2. The dimensions derived from the polarimetric albedo and the lightcurve amplitudes are 12km × 12km × 31km for a smooth cylinder with hemispherical ends.     

Argon loss during deformation of micas: constraints from laboratory deformation experiments

The role of internal deformation in resetting argon ages of micas has been investigated by measuring ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ratios of biotite and muscovite, before and after experimentally deforming them. Neither mica crushed cataclastically at room temperature on-line with a mass spectrometer showed any measurable change in ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age. Muscovite crystals either sheared along the K-interlayer and/or kinked at 400 °C and 100–200 MPa confining pressure, exhibit small (0.7–1.0%) reductions in age and marked increases in bulk diffusion coefficients, as determined from argon release during the initial stages of step-heating between 550 and 810 °C. We conclude that the relatively young ages of fine-grained mica populations in naturally deformed mylonites result primarily from grain size refinement and reductions in length scale for volume diffusion and/or by syntectonic neocrystallization. Internal deformation involving dislocation slip and kinking may contribute to some argon loss by pipe diffusion, but reductions in closure temperature associated with multipath diffusion are small.     

Growth and Deformation of the Ladakh Batholith, Northwest Himalayas: Implications for Timing of Continental Collision and Origin of Calc-Alkaline Batholiths

The calc-alkaline Ladakh batholith (NW Himalayas) was dated to constrain the timing of continental collision and subsequent deformation. Batholith growth ended when collision disrupted subduction of the Tethyan oceanic lithosphere, and thus the youngest magmatic pulse indirectly dates the collision. Both U-Pb ages on zircons from three samples of the Ladakh batholith and K-Ar from one subvolcanic dike sample were determined. Magmatic activity near Leh (the capital of Ladakh) occurred between 70 and 50 Ma, with the last major magmatic pulse crystallizing at ca. 49.8+/-0.8 Ma (2sigma). This was followed by rapid and generalized cooling to lower greenschist facies temperatures within a few million years, and minor dike intrusion took place at 46+/-1 Ma. Field observations, the lack of inherited prebatholith zircons, and other isotopic evidence suggest that the batholith is mantle derived with negligible crustal influence, that it evolved through input of fresh magma from the mantle and remelting of previously emplaced mantle magmatic rocks. The sedmimentary record indicates that collision in NW Himalaya occurred around 52-50 Ma. If this is so, the magmatic system driven by subduction of Tethys ended immediately on collision. The thermal history of one sample from within the Thanglasgo Shear Zone (TSZ) was determined by Ar-Ar method to constrain timing of batholith internal deformation. This is a wide dextral shear zone within the batholith, parallel to the dextral, N 30 degrees W-striking crustal-scale Karakoram Fault. Internal deformation of the batholith, taken up partly by this shear zone, has caused it to deviate from it regional WNW-ESE trend to parallel the Karakoram Fault. Microstructures and cooling history of a sample from the TSZ indicate that shearing took place before 22 Ma, implying that (1) the history of dextral shearing on NW-striking planes in northern Ladakh started at least 7 m.yr. before the <15 Ma Karakoram Fault, (2) shearing was responsible for deviation of the regional trend of the Ladakh batholith, and (3) dextral shearing occured within a zone apporximately 100 km wide that includes the Ladakh batholith and portions of the younger Karakoram batholith.     

Multi-sensor DInSAR applied to the spatiotemporal evolution analysis of ground surface deformation in Cerro Prieto basin,Baja California,Mexico, for the 1993–2014 period

The combined effects of active tectonics and anthropogenic activities, primarily geothermal resources exploitation for electricity production in Cerro Prieto geothermal field, influence the ground surface deformation in Cerro Prieto basin, Baja California, Mexico. In this study, a large set of multi-sensor C-band SAR images have been employed to reconstruct the spatiotemporal evolution of aseismic ground surface deformation that has affected Cerro Prieto basin from 1993 to 2014. Conventional DInSAR together with the interferograms stacking procedure was applied. The results showed that the study area presented considerable surface deformation (mainly subsidence) during the entire time of the investigation. The main changes in rate and pattern of surface deformation have a good correlation in time and space with the changes in production in the Cerro Prieto geothermal field. Comparison of LOS displacement maps from different viewing geometries, and decomposition (where possible) of LOS displacement into vertical and horizontal (east–west) components, revealed considerable horizontal displacement which mostly reflects the ground movement at and beyond the margin of the subsidence basin toward the areas of highest subsidence rates. In addition, the validation of the DInSAR results by comparing them against measurements from leveling surveys was performed, confirming the high reliably of satellite interferometry for the ground surface deformation rate mapping in the study area.