Weather noise impact on the uncertainty of simulated water balance components of river basins

Assessments of hydrological response to climatic changes are characterized by different types of uncertainties. Here, the uncertainty caused by weather noise associated with the chaotic character of atmospheric processes is considered. A technique for estimating such uncertainty in simulated water balance components based on application of the land surface model SWAP and the climate model ECHAM5 is described. The technique is applied for estimating the uncertainties in the simulated water balance components (precipitation, river runoff and evapotranspiration) of some northern river basins of Russia. It is shown that the larger the area of a basin the less the uncertainty. This dependency is smoothed by differences in natural conditions of the basins. Analysis of the spectral densities of water balance components shows that a river basin filters out high-frequency harmonics of spectral density of precipitation (corresponding to synoptic or sub-seasonal scale) during its transformation into evapotranspiration and especially into runoff.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR H. Kreibich     

Representation of light pressure resultant force and moment as a tensor series

In this article, we address the problem of the determination of light pressure upon space structures with a complex geometric shape. For each surface element, we enforce a condition that it can interact with light only from its front side, a condition represented in the form of series of Chebyshev polynomials of the first kind. This Chebyshev expansion enables the use of a series of tensors of increasing rank for determination of the force and moment acting on the sail. We obtain expressions for the determination of light pressure on space structures of complex geometry, taking into account self-shadowing and reflections within the structure. We also give the expressions for tensor parametrization using the specularity coefficient in case of specular -diffuse reflection. For these expressions, we calculated the principal moment and force upon two-sided flat solar sail, spherical and cylindrical bodies, and approximated light pressure upon the proposed space-based observatory Millimetron. The proposed expressions can be used in the ballistic analysis of solar sails and other space objects significantly affected by radiation pressure. Also, these results can be used to analyze the dynamics of large-scale space structures around their center of gravity under light pressure.     

Formation of the resonant populations in the Kuiper belt: gas-drag-induced resonant capture

On the basis of their orbital elements, present-day Kuiper belt objects can be grouped into distinct dynamical classes: classical, resonant and scattered ones. Jiang & Yeh have proposed gas-drag-induced resonant capture in a protostellar disc analogous to the primordial solar nebula as a mechanism able to explain the dominant 3:2 resonant population observed in Kuiper belt objects. de la Fuente Marcos & de la Fuente Marcos further investigated the drag-induced mechanism numerically. Our significant contribution is a hydrodynamic theory derivation of results obtained in the Jiang & Yeh and de la Fuente Marcos & de la Fuente Marcos numerical simulations.     

Determination of a shallow velocity–depth model from seismic refraction data by coherence inversion1

Seismic refractions have different applications in seismic prospecting. The travel- times of refracted waves can be observed as first breaks on shot records and used for field static calculation. A new method for constructing a near-surface model from refraction events is described. It does not require event picking on prestack records and is not based on any approximation of arrival times. It consists of the maximization of the semblance coherence measure computed using shot gathers in a time window along refraction traveltimes. Time curves are generated by ray tracing through the model. The initial model for the inversion was constructed by the intercept-time method. Apparent velocities and intercept times were taken from a refraction stacked section. Such a section can be obtained by appling linea moveout corrections to common-shot records. The technique is tested successfully on synthetic and real data. An important application of the proposed method for solving the statics problem is demonstrated.     

Total organic carbon distribution and budget through the Strait of Gibraltar in April 1998

In order to investigate total organic carbon (TOC) exchange through the Strait of Gibraltar, samples were taken along two sections from the western (Gulf of Cádiz) and eastern (Western Alboran Sea) entrances of the Strait and at the middle of the Strait in April 1998. TOC was measured by using a high-temperature catalytic oxidation method. The results referenced here are based on a three-layer model of water mass exchange through the Strait, which includes the Atlantic inflow, Mediterranean outflow and an interface layer in between. All layers were characterised by a decrease of TOC concentrations from the Gulf of Cádiz to the Western Alboran Sea: from 60–79 to 59–66 μM C in the Atlantic inflow and from 40–60 to 38–52 μM C in the Mediterranean waters, respectively. TOC concentrations in the modified North Atlantic Central Water varied from 43 to 55 μM C. Intermediate TOC values were measured in the interface layer (43–60 μM C). TOC concentrations increased from the middle of the Strait towards continents indicating a contribution of organic carbon of photosynthetic origin along Spain and Morocco coasts or TOC accumulation due to upwelling in the northeastern part of the Strait. Our results indicate that the short-term variability caused by the tide greatly impacts the TOC distribution, particularly in the Gulf of Cádiz. The TOC input from the Atlantic Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea through the Strait of Gibraltar varies from 0.9×10⁴ to 1.0×10⁴ mol C s⁻¹ (or 0.28×10¹² to 0.35×10¹² mol C year⁻¹, respectively). This estimate suggests that the TOC inflow and outflow through the Strait of Gibraltar are two and three orders of magnitude higher than reported via the Turkish Straits and Mediterranean River inputs.     

Synchrotron emission in the fast cooling regime: which spectra can be explained?

We consider the synchrotron emission from relativistic shocks assuming that the radiating electrons cool rapidly (either through synchrotron or any other radiation mechanism). It is shown that the theory of synchrotron emission in the fast cooling regime can account for a wide range of spectral shapes. In particular, the magnetic field, which decays behind the shock front, brings enough flexibility to the theory to explain the majority of gamma-ray burst spectra even in the parameter-free fast cooling regime. Also, we discuss whether location of the peak in observed spectral energy distributions of gamma-ray bursts and active galactic nuclei can be made consistent with predictions of diffusive shock acceleration theory, and find that the answer is negative. This result is a strong indication that a particle injection mechanism, other than the standard shock acceleration, works in relativistic shocks.     

Securing the climate benefits of stable forests

Stable forests – those not already significantly disturbed nor facing predictable near-future risks of anthropogenic disturbance – may play a large role in the climate solution, due to their carbon sequestration and storage capabilities. Their importance is recognized by the Paris Agreement, but stable forests have received comparatively little attention through existing forest protection mechanisms and finance. Instead, emphasis has been placed on targeting locations where deforestation and forest degradation are happening actively. Yet stopping deforestation and forest degradation does not guarantee durable success, especially outside the geographic scope of targeted efforts. As a result, today’s stable forests may be at risk without additional efforts to secure their long-term conservation.

We synthesize the gaps in existing policy efforts that could address the climate-related benefits derived from stable forests, noting several barriers to action, such as uncertainty around the level of climate services that stable forests provide and difficulties describing the real level of threat posed. We argue that resource and finance allocation for stable forests should be incorporated into countries’ and donors’ comprehensive portfolios aimed at tackling deforestation and forest degradation as well as resulting emissions. A holistic and forward-looking approach will be particularly important, given that success in tackling deforestation and forest degradation where it is currently happening will need to be sustained in the long term.

Key policy insights

• Climate policies, finance, and implementation have tended to focus on areas of recent forest loss and near-term threats of anthropogenic disturbance, resulting in an imbalance of effort that fails to adequately address stable forests.

• In some contexts, policy measuresintended to secure the climate-related benefits of stable forests have competed poorly against more urgent threats. Policymakers and finance mechanisms should view stable forests as a complementary element within a holistic, long-term approach to resource management.

• International mechanisms and national frameworks should be adjusted and resourced to promote the long-term sustainability and permanence of stable forests.

• Beyond additional resources, the climate benefits of stable forests may be best secured by pro-actively designing implementing policies that recognize the rights and interests of stakeholders who are affected by land management decisions.

     

Radiochemical Determination of Gold in Rocks

A method developed for radiochemical determination of gold in rock samples has been applied to six Bulgarian, four ZGI (GDR) and one USGS geostandards. The method is based on acid dissolution of the sample, followed by extraction of gold with copper diethyldithiocarbamate solution in CHCl₃. The chemical yield was determined by using ¹⁹⁹Au tracer. The present data are compared with published values for the ZGI and USGS samples.