Theory for Reconstruction of an Unknown Number of Contaminant Sources using Probabilistic Inference

We address the inverse problem of source reconstruction for the difficult case of multiple sources when the number of sources is unknown a priori. The problem is solved using a Bayesian probabilistic inferential framework in which Bayesian probability theory is used to derive the posterior probability density function for the number of sources and for the parameters (e.g., location, emission rate, release time and duration) that characterize each source. A mapping (source–receptor relationship) that relates a multiple source distribution to the concentration measurements made by an array of detectors is formulated based on a forward-time Lagrangian stochastic model. A computationally efficient methodology for determination of the likelihood function for the problem, based on an adjoint representation of the source–receptor relationship and realized in terms of a backward-time Lagrangian stochastic model, is described. An efficient computational algorithm based on a parallel tempered Metropolis-coupled reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is formulated and implemented to draw samples from the posterior probability density function of the source parameters. This methodology allows the MCMC method to initiate jumps between the hypothesis spaces corresponding to different numbers of sources in the source distribution and, thereby, allows a sample from the full joint posterior distribution of the number of sources and the parameters for each source to be obtained. The proposed methodology for source reconstruction is tested using synthetic concentration data generated for cases involving two and three unknown sources.     

A decision‐analytic study of the joint value of seasonal precipitation and temperature forecasts in a choice‐of‐crop problem

Abstract

A static decision‐analytic method is used to investigate the economic value of bivariate ‐ precipitation and temperature ‐ seasonal forecasts of the form currently issued by the U.S. National Weather Service. This method is applied to a corn versus spring wheat choice‐of‐crop decision‐making problem by considering a transect of four counties across the northwestern margin of the North American corn belt. Numerical results indicate that seasonal forecasts of current quality can be of appreciable value (≥$1/ha) for some locations when the optimal action chosen on the basis of climatological information is only marginally preferred to another action. Increases in forecast value follow from hypothetical increases in the quality of both the precipitation and temperature components of the forecasts in the spring wheat region, whereas forecast value increases primarily as a function of the quality of the precipitation forecasts alone in the corn belt region. The results are very sensitive to absolute and relative crop prices.     

Evaluation of an alternative method for numerically modeling nonhydrostatic flows over irregular terrain

Modeling nonhydrostatic atmospheric flow requires the solution of the vertical equation of motion and a prognostic or diagnostic equation for pressure. If the nonhydrostatic components of the flow are relatively small, they can be approximated and incorporated into a purely hydrostatic model, which usually is conceptually simpler and computationally more efficient. A method to do this for a linear model of local thermally-induced circulations is further developed and adapted to a non-linear numerical model of the neutral atmospheric boundary layer. A hydrostatic model and the quasi-nonhydrostatic version were used to simulate neutral flow over simple terrain features. One set of observations taken over a simple change in roughness and another set taken over a change in both roughness and terrain were simulated by both models to assess the capabilities of the quasi-nonhydrostatic technique.It is found that (as expected) the pressure deviation from the hydrostatic state is negligible for the roughness change, but it is an important aspect of neutral flow over terrain. Thus, for flow encountering a simple roughness change, the hydrostatic approximation is good, even for small horizontal scales. However, the quasi-nonhydrostatic model qualitatively produces the features in the observations for flow over a terrain change that the hydrostatic model cannot produce.Journal Paper No. J-12737 of the Iowa Agriculture and Home Economics Experiment Station, Ames, Iowa. Project No. 2779.     

Do emissions and income have a common trend? A country-specific,time-series,global analysis, 1970–2008

This paper analyzes the relation between income and emissions in the period 1970–2008, for all world countries. We consider time-series of CO₂, SO₂ and GWP100, and use Vector Autoregressive models that allow for nonstationarity and cointegration. At 5 % significance level, income and emissions are found to be driven by unrelated random walks with drift (respectively by a common random walk with drift) in about 70 % (respectively 25 %) of cases; in the remaining cases the variables are trend-stationary. Tests of Granger-causality show evidence of both directions of causality. For the case of unrelated stochastic trends, we almost never find income driving emissions, as predicted by a consumption-function interpretation. These causality results and the absence of a common trend challenge the main implications of the Environmental Kuznets Curve, namely that the dominant direction of causality should be from income to emissions, and that for increasing levels of income, emissions should tend to decrease.     

Below- and Aboveground Biomass of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Spartina alterniflora</Emphasis>: Response to Nutrient Addition in a Louisiana Salt Marsh

The responses of Spartina alterniflora above- and belowground biomass to various combinations of N, P, and Fe were documented in a 1-year field experiment in a Louisiana salt marsh. Five levels of N additions to 0.25 m² plots resulted in 18% to 138% more live aboveground biomass compared to the control plots and higher stem densities, but had no effect on the amount of live belowground biomass (roots and rhizomes; R&R). There was no change in the aboveground biomass when P or Fe was added as part of a factorial experiment of +P, +N, and +Fe additions, but there was a 40% to 60% decrease in the live belowground biomass, which reduced the average R&R:S ratio by 50%. The addition of various combinations of nutrients had a significant affect on the belowground biomass indicating that the addition of P, not N, eased the need for root foraging activity. The end-of-the-growing-season N:P molar ratios in the live above- and belowground tissues of the control plot was 16.4 and 32.7, respectively. The relative size of the belowground standing stocks of N and P was higher than in the aboveground live tissues, but shifted downwards to about half that in fertilized plots. We conclude that the aboveground biomass was directly related to N availability, but not P, and that the accumulation of belowground biomass was not limited by N. We suggest that the reduction in belowground biomass with increased P availability, and the lower absolute and relative belowground standing stocks of P as plant tissue N:P ratios increased, is related to competition with soil microbes for P. One implication for wetland management and restoration is that eutrophication may be detrimental to long-term salt marsh maintenance and development, especially in organic-rich wetland soils.     

Ground-based Pc5 ULF wave power: Solar wind speed and MLT dependence

Using over 20 years of ground-based magnetometer data from the CANOPUS/CARISMA magnetometer array, we present a statistical characterisation of Pc5 ultra-low frequency (ULF) power in the 2–10 mHz band as a function of magnetic local time (MLT), L-shell, and solar wind speed. We examine the power across L-shells between 4.2 and 7.9, using data from the PINA, ISLL, GILL and FCHU stations, and demonstrate that there is a significant MLT dependence in both the H- and D-component median 2–10 mHz power during both fast (>500 km/s) and slow (<500 km/s) solar wind speeds. The H-component power consistently dominates over D-component power at all MLTs and during both fast and slow solar wind. At the higher-L stations (L>5.4), there are strong MLT power peaks in the morning and midnight local time sectors; the morning sector dominating midnight during fast solar wind events. At lower L-shells, there is no evidence of the midnight peak and the 2–10 mHz power is more symmetric with respect to MLT except during the fastest solar wind speeds. There is little evidence in the ground-based power of a localised MLT peak in ULF power at dusk, except at the lowest L-shell station, predominantly in the H-component. The median 2–10 mHz power increases with an approximate power law dependence on solar wind speed, at all local times across the L-shell domain studied in both components. The H-component power peaks at the latitude of the GILL station, with significantly lower power at both higher and lower L-shells. Conversely, the D-component power increases monotonically. We believe that this is evidence for 2–10 mHz power accumulating at auroral latitudes in field line resonances. Finally, we discuss how such ULF wave power characterisation might be used to derive empirical radiation belt radial diffusion coefficients based on, and driven by, the solar wind speed dependence of ULF wave power.     

Seasonal variation in the toxicity of sediment-associated contaminants in Corpus Christi Bay, TX

Seasonal variation in pore water and sediment-water interface (SWI) toxicity at two sites of suspected contamination was investigated using sea urchin embryological development (Arbacia punctulata) and copepod hatching success (Schizopera knabeni). Site S1, located inside a marina, was fine-grained and S2, located near a neighboring stormwater outfall, was sandy. Both sites were cored in summer and winter, along with reference sites of equivalent grain sizes. Whereas the muddy contaminated site displayed a slight decrease in sea urchin toxicity from summer to winter, pore water from the sandy contaminated site exhibited an increase in sea urchin toxicity. The sandy sites displayed slight toxicity increase to copepod hatching success in winter, which occurred in the SWI of S2 and in the pore water from the reference site, R2, where it coincided with sedimentation. Cu was the most prevalent metal in the sediment samples. Although Cu concentration increased in the whole sediments and pore waters from summer to winter, its concentration in overlying SWI exposure decreased from summer to winter. Organic compounds exhibited opposite behavior, with smaller variety identified in the winter pore water samples, but more chemicals detected in the SWI samples in winter.     

Biodegradation of Petroleum Hydrocarbons in Fractured, Unsaturated Dolomite at a Field Site

Gasoline constituents were detected in unsaturated soil and rock during abandonment of a leaky underground storage tank (UST). The unsaturated sequence beneath the former UST consists of 90 feet of silty till, fractured dolomite, and friable sand-stone. Pore gas probes were installed in each of the unsaturated units, both in the source area and in a background on-site location. Pore gas samples were collected to evaluate the nature, extent, and fate of residual hydrocarbons in the vadose zone. Pore gas from the till and dolomite in the source area was enriched in petroleum hydrocarbons and carbon dioxide, and was depleted in oxygen, relative to pore gas from the background area. During two years of ground water monitoring at the site, methyl tertiary butyl ether was periodically detected in the ground water beneath the source area as pulses of recharge passed through the unsaturated zone, but no other gasoline constituents were detected. Apparently, the most degradable fraction of the gasoline (aromatic hydrocarbons) is being attenuated in the vadose zone before the water table is reached.