Modeling anthropogenic boron in groundwater flow and discharge at Volusia Blue Spring (Florida,USA)

Volusia Blue Spring (VBS) is the largest spring along the St. Johns River in Florida (USA) and the spring pool is refuge for hundreds of manatees during winter months. However, the water quality of the spring flow has been degraded due to urbanization in the past few decades. A three-dimensional contaminant fate and transport model, utilizing MODFLOW-2000 and MT3DMS, was developed to simulate boron transport in the Upper Florida Aquifer, which sustains the VBS spring discharge. The VBS model relied on information and data related to natural water features, rainfall, land use, water use, treated wastewater discharge, septic tank effluent flows, and fertilizers as inputs to simulate boron transport. The model was calibrated against field-observed water levels, spring discharge, and analysis of boron in water samples. The calibrated VBS model yielded a root-mean-square-error value of 1.8 m for the head and 17.7 μg/L for boron concentrations within the springshed. Model results show that anthropogenic boron from surrounding urbanized areas contributes to the boron found at Volusia Blue Spring.     

Holocene climate of New England

Stratigraphic studies of pollen and macrofossils from six sites at different elevations in the White Mountains of New Hampshire demonstrate changes in the distributions of four coniferous tree species during the Holocene. Two species presently confined to low elevations extended farther up the mountain slopes during the early Holocene: white pine grew 350 m above its present limit beginning 9000 yr B.P., while hemlock grew 300–400 m above its present limit soon after the species immigrated to the region 7000 yr. B.P. Hemlock disappeared from the highest sites about 5000 yr B.P., but both species persisted at sites 50–350 m above their present limits until the Little Ice Age began a few centuries ago. The history of the two main high-elevation conifers is more difficult to interpret. Spruce and fir first occur near their present upper limits 9000 or 10,000 yr B.P. Fir persisted in abundance at elevations similar to those where it occurs today throughout the Holocene, while spruce became infrequent at all elevations from the beginning of the Holocene until 2000 yr B.P. These facts suggest a more complex series of changes than a mere upward shift of the modern environmental gradient. Nevertheless, we conclude that the minimum climatic change which would explain the upward extensions of hemlock and white pine is a rise in temperature, perhaps as much as 2°C. The interval of maximum warmth started 9000 yr B.P. and lasted at least until 5000 yr B.P., correlative with the Prairie Period in Minnesota.     

Alternating Gaussian process modulated renewal processes for modeling threshold exceedances and durations

It is often of interest to model the incidence and duration of threshold exceedance events for an environmental variable over a set of monitoring locations. Such data arrive over continuous time and can be considered as observations of a two-state process yielding, sequentially, a length of time in the below threshold state followed by a length of time in the above threshold state, then returning to the below threshold state, etc. We have a two-state continuous time Markov process, often referred to as an alternating renewal process. The process is observed over a truncated time window and, within this window, duration in each state is modeled using a distinct cumulative intensity specification. Initially, we model each intensity over the window using a parametric regression specification. We extend the regression specification adding temporal random effects to enrich the model using a realization of a log Gaussian process over time. With only one type of renewal, this specification is referred to as a Gaussian process modulated renewal process. Here, we introduce Gaussian process modulation to the intensity for each state. Model fitting is done within a Bayesian framework. We clarify that fitting with a customary log Gaussian process specification over a lengthy time window is computationally infeasible. The nearest neighbor Gaussian process, which supplies sparse covariance structure, is adopted to enable tractable computation. We propose methods for both generating data under our models and for conducting model comparison. The model is applied to hourly ozone data for four monitoring sites at different locations across the United States for the ozone season of 2014. For each site, we obtain estimated profiles of up-crossing and down-crossing intensity functions through time. In addition, we obtain inference regarding the number of exceedances, the distribution of the duration of exceedance events, and the proportion of time in the above and below threshold state for any time interval.     

Expert views - and disagreements - about the potential of energy technology R&D

Mitigating climate change will require innovation in energy technologies. Policy makers are faced with the question of how to promote this innovation, and whether to focus on a few technologies or to spread their bets. We present results on the extent to which public R&D might shape the future cost of energy technologies by 2030. We bring together three major expert elicitation efforts carried out by researchers at UMass Amherst, Harvard, and FEEM, covering nuclear, solar, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), bioelectricity, and biofuels. The results show experts believe that there will be cost reductions resulting from R&D and report median cost reductions around 20 % for most of the technologies at the R&D budgets considered. Although the improvements associated to solar and CCS R&D show some promise, the lack of consensus across studies, and the larger magnitude of the R&D investment involved in these technologies, calls for caution when defining what technologies would benefit the most from additional public R&D. In order to make R&D funding decisions to meet particular goals, such as mitigating climate change or improving energy security, or to estimate the social returns to R&D, policy makers need to combine the information provided in this study on cost reduction potentials with an analysis of the macroeconomic implications of these technological changes. We conclude with recommendations for future directions on energy expert elicitations.     

Groundwater recharge in Pleistocene sediments overlying basalt aquifers in the Palouse Basin, USA: modeling of distributed recharge potential and identification of water pathways

Groundwater levels in basalt aquifers around the world have been declining for many years. Understanding water pathways is needed for solutions like artificial drainage. Water supply in the Palouse Basin, Washington and Idaho, USA, primarily relies on basalt aquifers. This study presents a combination of modeling and field observations to understand the spatial distribution of recharge pathways in the overlying Pleistocene sediments. A spatially distributed model was used to quantify potential recharge rates. The model shows clearly that recharge predominantly occurs through non-argilic soils and soils that are not underlain by fine-grained sediments, i.e. the upper area of the watershed. A field survey was conducted to determine recharge pathways from this area. It revealed 83 ?perennial springs. Drillings near springs showed connection of coarse-grained layers within the fine-grained Sediments of Bovill to these springs. Such layers, with streambed-like features, act as paleo-channels. Water from one of these coarse-grained layers had a similar electrical conductivity (200? ??S? cm^?C1) to water from a downstream perennial spring, also suggesting the existence of a lateral conduit for deep percolation water.     

Spatial analysis of a historical phenomenon: using GIS to demonstrate the strategic placement of Umayyad desert palaces

The Umayyad qusour (desert palaces) are monumental structures built during the reign of the first caliphate of Islam. Usually dismissed as “pleasure palaces” or “hunting lodges,” some scholars are beginning to argue that these prominent structures were strategic interventions in the landscape. Until now, historians have relied mainly on textual, architectural and art-historical analyses of the qusour in order to understand Umayyad state architecture. This research proposes the use of spatial analysis through GIS to lend a new dimension to the discussion. The results of the analysis show that Umayyad qusour are carefully situated at routes of transhumance and water sources. The distribution pattern of the Umayyad qusour is clustered at the outlet of Wadi Sarhan, and there is actually line-of-sight communication between Azraq, Amra, Haranah, Muwaqqar, Umm al Walid, Mushatta, and Qastal. There is also a positive association between Umayyad qusour and their water sources. These results support the argument that the Umayyad qusour were built strategically at perennial water sources in order to monitor routes of transhumance amongst the socio-political centers of the period.     

Sediment flux in a small gravel-bed stream: Response to channel remediation works

Abstract:  Sediment transfers in a short reach of the Kiwitea Stream, near Fielding, lower North Island, New Zealand, are assessed using morphological budgeting based on repeat digital elevation model (DEM) differencing. Field data were acquired using high-precision GPS in October 2004, May and November 2005. Two interpolation methods to construct DEMs were compared. Universal kriging and Triangulation with Linear Interpolation produced consistent results and mean errors of between 4 and 14 mm. DEM error increases where relief changes rapidly. Sediment transfers are derived only from the low-relief active channel and indicate a rapidly changing environment. Remediation works following 2004 flood impacts have reduced bank erosion. A highly mobile bed renders the channel system sensitive to small and frequent flood events.     

Importance of seep primary production to Lophelia pertusa and associated fauna in the Gulf of Mexico

To investigate the importance of seep primary production to the nutrition of Lophelia pertusa and associated communities and examine local trophic interactions, we analyzed stable carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur compositions in seven quantitative L. pertusa community collections. A significant seep signature was only detected in one of the 35 species tested (Provanna sculpta, a common seep gastropod) despite the presence of seep fauna at the three sample sites. A potential predator of L. pertusa was identified (Coralliophila sp.), and a variety of other trophic interactions among the fauna occupying the coral framework were suggested by the data, including the galatheid crab Munidopsis sp. 2 feeding upon hydroids and the polychaete Eunice sp. feeding upon the sabellid polychaete Euratella sp. Stable carbon abundances were also determined for different sections of L. pertusa skeleton representing different stages in the growth and life of the aggregation. There was no temporal trend detected in the skeleton isotope values, suggesting that L. pertusa settles in these areas only after seepage has largely subsided. Isotope values of individual taxa that were collected from both L. pertusa and vestimentiferan habitats showed decreasing reliance upon seep primary production with average age of the vestimentiferan aggregation, and finally, no seep signature was detected in the coral collections. Together our data suggest that it is the presence of authigenic carbonate substrata, a product of past seep microbial activity, as well as hydrodynamic processes that drive L. pertusa occurrence at seep sites in the Gulf of Mexico, not nutritional dependence upon primary production by seep microbes.