Dealing with hurricane surge flooding in a changing environment: part I. Risk assessment considering storm climatology change,sea level rise,and coastal development

Coastal flood risk will likely increase in the future due to urban development, sea-level rise, and potential change of storm surge climatology, but the latter has seldom been considered in flood risk analysis. We propose an integrated dynamic risk analysis for flooding task (iDraft) framework to assess coastal flood risk at regional scales, considering integrated dynamic effects of storm climatology change, sea-level rise, and coastal development. The framework is composed of two components: a modeling scheme to collect and combine necessary physical information and a formal, Poisson-based theoretical scheme to derive various risk measures of interest. Time-varying risk metrics such as the return period of various damage levels and the mean and variance of annual damage are derived analytically. The mean of the present value of future losses (PVL) is also obtained analytically in three ways. Monte Carlo (MC) methods are then developed to estimate these risk metrics and also the probability distribution of PVL. The analytical and MC methods are theoretically and numerically consistent. A case study is performed for New York City (NYC). It is found that the impact of population growth and coastal development on future flood risk is relatively small for NYC, sea-level rise will significantly increase the damage risk, and storm climatology change can also increase the risk and uncertainty. The joint effect of all three dynamic factors is possibly a dramatic increase of the risk over the twenty-first century and a significant shift of the probability distribution of the PVL towards high values. In a companion paper (Part II), we extend the iDraft to perform probabilistic benefit-cost analysis for various flood mitigation strategies proposed for NYC to avert the potential impact of climate change.     

Research Note: Near‐surface layer replacement for sparse data: is interpolation needed?

Near‐surface problem is a common challenge faced by land seismic data processing, where often, due to near‐surface anomalies, events of interest are obscured. One method to handle this challenge is near‐surface layer replacement, which is a wavefield reconstruction process based on downward wavefield extrapolation with the near‐surface velocity model and upward wavefield extrapolation with a replacement velocity model. This requires, in theory, that the original wavefield should be densely sampled. In reality, data acquisition is always sparse due to economic reasons, and as a result in the near‐surface layer replacement data interpolation should be resorted to. For datasets with near‐surface challenges, because of the complex event behaviour, a suitable interpolation scheme by itself is a challenging problem, and this, in turn, makes it difficult to carry out the near‐surface layer replacement. In this research note, we first point out that the final objective of the near‐surface layer replacement is not to obtain a newly reconstructed wavefield but to obtain a better final image. Next, based upon this finding, we propose a new thinking, interpolation‐free near‐surface layer replacement, which can handle complex datasets without any interpolation. Data volume expansion is the key idea, and with its help, the interpolation‐free near‐surface layer replacement is capable of preserving the valuable information of areas of interest in the original dataset. Two datasets, i.e., a two‐dimensional synthetic dataset and a three‐dimensional field dataset, are used to demonstrate this idea. One conclusion that can be drawn is that an attempt to interpolate data before layer replacement may deteriorate the final image after layer replacement, whereas interpolation‐free near‐surface layer replacement preserves all image details in the subsurface.     

Normal modes and resonance in Ontario Lacus: a hydrocarbon lake of Titan

Ocean Dynamics - The natural modes of Ontario Lacus surface oscillations, the largest lake in Titan’s southern hemisphere, are simulated and analyzed as they are potentially of broad interest...     

Real Option Identification Framework for Mine Operational Decision-Making

Natural Resources Research - Identification of opportunities for applying real options (RO) in mining operations is a major challenge to decision-makers. In order to make optimal decisions in...     

不同气候变化情景下亚洲北山羊（Capra sibirica）的响应（英文）

目前很少见到关于气候变化影响亚洲北山羊物种栖息地的研究。通过调查气候变化对塔吉克斯坦东部亚洲北山羊(Capra sibirica)分布的影响,并采用生态位建模比较了亚洲北山羊的适宜栖息地的当前与未来分布情况。预计到2070年,现有适宜栖息地的18%(2689 km^2)将变得不适宜亚洲北山羊的生存,损失的区域主要位于研究区域的东南部和西北部地区。新的适宜栖息地可能会扩展到当前亚洲北山羊范围之外:到2070年将扩展30%(4595 km^2)的范围,这些区域与亚洲北山羊现有的分布有很强的相关性。东南部的损失与该地区当前大多数的亚洲北山羊栖息地重叠,主要出现在比研究区域海拔低得多的区域(3500–4000 m)。当同时考虑损失和收益时,亚洲北山羊可能会净扩展到新的适宜栖息地。到2070年,亚洲北山羊的平均栖息地增加量约为30%(1379 km^2),表明适宜栖息地已向北部低温栖息地转移。研究结果有助于规划气候变化情景下塔吉克斯坦东部山区对生物多样性保护的潜在影响。应该特别注意东南地区的高地山羊种群,那里的栖息地可能由于气候对山区生态系统的影响而变得不适合该物种继续生存。     

Extraterrestrial organic compounds and cyanide in the CM2 carbonaceous chondrites Aguas Zarcas and Murchison

Evaluating the water‐soluble organic composition of carbonaceous chondrites is key to understanding the inventory of organic matter present at the origins of the solar system and the subsequent processes that took place inside asteroid parent bodies. Here, we present a side‐by‐side analysis and comparison of the abundance and molecular distribution of aliphatic amines, aldehydes, ketones, mono‐ and dicarboxylic acids, and free and acid‐releasable cyanide species in the CM2 chondrites Aguas Zarcas and Murchison. The Aguas Zarcas meteorite is a recent fall that occurred in central Costa Rica and constitutes the largest recovered mass of a CM‐type meteorite after Murchison. The overall content of organic species we investigated was systematically higher in Murchison than in Aguas Zarcas. Similar to previous meteoritic organic studies, carboxylic acids were one to two orders of magnitude more abundant than other soluble organic compound classes investigated in both meteorite samples. We did not identify free cyanide in Aguas Zarcas and Murchison; however, cyanide species analyzed after acid digestion of the water‐extracted meteorite mineral matrix were detected and quantified at slightly higher abundances in Aguas Zarcas compared to Murchison. Although there were differences in the total abundances of specific compound classes, these two carbonaceous chondrites showed similar isomeric distributions of aliphatic amines and carboxylic acids, with common traits such as a complete suite of structural isomers that decreases in concentration with increasing molecular weight. These observations agree with their petrologic CM type‐2 classification, suggesting that these meteorites experienced similar organic formation processes and/or conditions during parent body aqueous alteration.     

Flare Prediction Using Photospheric and Coronal Image Data

The precise physical process that triggers solar flares is not currently understood. Here we attempt to capture the signature of this mechanism in solar-image data of various wavelengths and use these signatures to predict flaring activity. We do this by developing an algorithm that i) automatically generates features in 5.5 TB of image data taken by the Solar Dynamics Observatory of the solar photosphere, chromosphere, transition region, and corona during the time period between May 2010 and May 2014, ii) combines these features with other features based on flaring history and a physical understanding of putative flaring processes, and iii) classifies these features to predict whether a solar active region will flare within a time period of \(T\) hours, where \(T = 2 \mbox{ and }24\). Such an approach may be useful since, at the present time, there are no physical models of flares available for real-time prediction. We find that when optimizing for the True Skill Score (TSS), photospheric vector-magnetic-field data combined with flaring history yields the best performance, and when optimizing for the area under the precision–recall curve, all of the data are helpful. Our model performance yields a TSS of \(0.84 \pm0.03\) and \(0.81 \pm0.03\) in the \(T = 2\)- and 24-hour cases, respectively, and a value of \(0.13 \pm0.07\) and \(0.43 \pm0.08\) for the area under the precision–recall curve in the \(T=2\)- and 24-hour cases, respectively. These relatively high scores are competitive with previous attempts at solar prediction, but our different methodology and extreme care in task design and experimental setup provide an independent confirmation of these results. Given the similar values of algorithm performance across various types of models reported in the literature, we conclude that we can expect a certain baseline predictive capacity using these data. We believe that this is the first attempt to predict solar flares using photospheric vector-magnetic field data as well as multiple wavelengths of image data from the chromosphere, transition region, and corona, and it points the way towards greater data integration across diverse sources in future work.     

Other Types of Contamination

"Hazardous levels of methane in the subsurface occur at numerous locations across the United States."     

Concave accretion discs and X-ray reprocessing

Spectra of Seyfert 1s are commonly modelled as emission from an X-ray-illuminated flat accretion disc orbiting a central black hole. This provides both reprocessed and direct components of the X-ray emission, as required by observations of individual objects, and possibly a fraction of the cosmological X-ray background. There is some observational motivation for us to at least consider the role that an effectively concave disc surface might play: (1) a reprocessed fraction ≳1/2 in some Seyferts and possibly in the X-ray background, and (2) the commonality of a sharp iron line peak for Seyferts at 6.4 keV despite a dependence of peak location on inclination angle for flat disc models. Here it is shown that a concave disc may not only provide a larger total fraction of reprocessed photons, but can also reprocess a much larger fraction of photons in its outer regions compared with a flat disc. This reduces the sensitivity of the 6.4-keV peak location to the inner disc inclination angle because the outer regions are less affected by Doppler and gravitational effects. If the X-ray source is isotropic, the reprocessed fraction is directly determined by the concavity. If the X-ray source is anisotropic, the location of iron line peak can still be determined by concavity but the total reflected fraction need not be as large as for the isotropic emitter case. The geometric calculations herein are applicable to general accretion disc systems illuminated from the centre.