Undersampling power-law size distributions: effect on the assessment of extreme natural hazards

The effect of undersampling on estimating the size of extreme natural hazards from historical data is examined. Tests using synthetic catalogs indicate that the tail of an empirical size distribution sampled from a pure Pareto probability distribution can range from having one-to-several unusually large events to appearing depleted, relative to the parent distribution. Both of these effects are artifacts caused by limited catalog length. It is more difficult to diagnose the artificially depleted empirical distributions, since one expects that a pure Pareto distribution is physically limited in some way. Using maximum-likelihood methods and the method of moments, we estimate the power-law exponent and the corner size parameter of tapered Pareto distributions for several natural hazard examples: tsunamis, floods, and earthquakes. Each of these examples has varying catalog lengths and measurement thresholds, relative to the largest event sizes. In many cases where there are only several orders of magnitude between the measurement threshold and the largest events, joint two-parameter estimation techniques are necessary to account for estimation dependence between the power-law scaling exponent and the corner size parameter. Results indicate that whereas the corner size parameter of a tapered Pareto distribution can be estimated, its upper confidence bound cannot be determined and the estimate itself is often unstable with time. Correspondingly, one cannot statistically reject a pure Pareto null hypothesis using natural hazard catalog data. Although physical limits to the hazard source size and attenuation mechanisms from source to site constrain the maximum hazard size, historical data alone often cannot reliably determine the corner size parameter. Probabilistic assessments incorporating theoretical constraints on source size and propagation effects are preferred over deterministic assessments of extreme natural hazards based on historical data.     

Evaluating social vulnerability indicators: criteria and their application to the Social Vulnerability Index

Natural Hazards - As a concept, social vulnerability describes combinations of social, cultural, economic, political, and institutional processes that shape socioeconomic differentials in the...     

Total individual ion activity coefficients of calcium and carbonate in seawater at 25°C and 35%. salinity,and implications to the agreement between apparent and thermodynamic constants of calcite and aragonite

We have calculated the total individual ion activity coefficients of carbonate and calcium, and , in seawater. Using the ratios of stoichiometric and thermodynamic constants of carbonic acid dissociation and total mean activity coefficient data measured in seawater, we have obtained values which differ significantly from those widely accepted in the literature. In seawater at 25°C and 35%. salinity the (molal) values of and are $\text{0.038 ± 0.002}$ and $\text{0.173 ± 0.010}$, respectively. These values of and are independent of liquid junction errors and internally consistent with the value . By defining and on a common scale (), the product is independent of the assigned value of and may be determined directly from thermodynamic measurements in seawater. Using the value and new thermodynamic equilibrium constants for calcite and aragonite, we show that the apparent constants of calcite and aragonite are consistent with the thermodynamic equilibrium constants at 25°C and 35%. salinity. The demonstrated consistency between thermodynamic and apparent constants of calcite and aragonite does not support a hypothesis of stable Mg-calcite coatings on calcite or aragonite surfaces in seawater, and suggests that the calcite critical carbonate ion curve of Broecker and Takahashi (1978, Deep-Sea Research25, 65–95) defines the calcite equilibrium boundary in the oceans, within the uncertainty of the data.     

Trace metals in sediments from the inner continental shelf of the western Beaufort Sea

Increased development and changing climate have enhanced global interest in the Arctic Ocean and adjacent seas. Using a large, 3-yr data base, we have determined the distribution of trace metals in sediments from the inner shelf of the western Beaufort Sea. Metal concentrations in these sediments reflect pristine conditions, consistent with those for most coastal areas in the Arctic and with predictions based on average continental crust. Geographic variations in metal values are primarily related to sediment grainsize distribution. However, grain-size patterns are a complex function of several variables including source areas, ice and water movement, as well as physical and chemical weathering. Future identification of any metal contamination in Beaufort Sea sediments will be simplified by understanding the predictable natural patterns.     

Instrumental neutron activation in geoanalysis

Theoretical aspects of instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA) are discussed. Various applications of INAA to exploration geochemistry are described demonstrating its capabilities and its limitations.Cost, turnaround time, high sensitivity for certain elements, the non-destructive nature of analysis and its precision and accuracy have combined to make INAA an indispensible method for multielement determination on virtually all geological matrices. Humus, vegetation, heavy minerals, lake bottom sediments as well as rocks and soils comprise the major sample types analyzed by INAA. As many as 50 elements can be determined routinely and easily by INAA.     

Impact of tunneling on regional groundwater flow and implications for swelling of clay–sulfate rocks

Tunnels play a key role in many transportation concepts. The swelling of clay–sulfate rocks leads to serious damage to many tunnels crossing such rock, producing great difficulties and high extra costs in tunnel engineering. The swelling is caused by the transformation of the sulfate mineral anhydrite into gypsum, entailing a 60% volume increase. The transformation involves anhydrite dissolution in water, transport of the solution with groundwater flow, and gypsum precipitation at a different location. Therefore, the knowledge of groundwater flow systems at the tunnel and adjacent areas is essential to better understand the swelling processes. The present study investigates the groundwater flow systems at the Chienberg tunnel in Switzerland before and after the tunnel excavation, based on numerical flow modeling. The models include faults and the hydrostratigraphic layering in the subsurface to assess the role of the hydrogeological setting. The results of this study indicate effects on groundwater flow caused by the tunneling, which may trigger rock swelling by favoring anhydrite dissolution and gypsum precipitation, including (1) increase of flow rates around the tunnel, (2) broadened, shifted and more distributed capture zones leading to a change in origin and age of groundwater, (3) access of groundwater from preferential flow paths (e.g. faults) due to the drainage effect of the tunnel, and (4) change in geochemical equilibrium conditions because of decreased pore water pressures in the tunnel area.     

Editorial

Abstract

With the increase in volume of spatial data now available, more effective ways must be found of storing and processing these data. This paper presents a compacted version of the linear quadtree and a spatially-referenced index method that can significantly reduce the storage requirements of a set of images and the time taken to process spatial queries. The index acts as a high-level summary of a regular-sized portion of the underlying image and so can be used to avoid examining areas of the image where none of the required features is present. Some example results are given. A method for the optimization of spatial searches is presented which takes into account the area and distribution of features within an image. Finally, a method for directly associating the edges of features with the individual nodes of a quadtree is reported. This is important since the edges of objects are no longer explicitly present in linear quadtrees and so must be recalculated when they are required for part of a query. Recalculation of object edges or boundaries is expensive; it is best, therefore, to perform the operation once only, and then save the results.     

Lowland Canterbury landscapes in the making

Abstract: This article explores environmental imaginaries of colonization in lowland Canterbury. In 1844 Edward Shortland observed that his Māori companions had an exceptionally detailed geographical knowledge of the area and its resources, yet a few years later European settlers were viewing it as an empty stage on which to envision newly‐constructed landscapes. The terrain was contested, but colonial ‘improvement’, through the creation of spaces of modernity, took no cognizance of this. The legacies of that transformation are a simplified, orderly landscape, and fractured but persistent memories of indigenous ecosystems that are now being revived.