Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts,adaptation and vulnerability research

This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social–environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance.     

Water Resources Implications of Global Warming: A U.S. Regional Perspective

The implications of global warming for the performance of six U.S. water resource systems are evaluated. The six case study sites represent a range of geographic and hydrologic, as well as institutional and social settings. Large, multi-reservoir systems (Columbia River, Missouri River, Apalachicola-Chatahoochee-Flint (ACF) Rivers), small, one or two reservoir systems (Tacoma and Boston) and medium size systems (Savannah River) are represented. The river basins range from mountainous to low relief and semi-humid to semi-arid, and the system operational purposes range from predominantly municipal to broadly multi-purpose. The studies inferred, using a chain of climate downscaling, hydrologic and water resources systems models, the sensitivity of six water resources systems to changes in precipitation, temperature and solar radiation. The climate change scenarios used in this study are based on results from transient climate change experiments performed with coupled ocean-atmosphere General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the 1995 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. An earlier doubled-CO₂ scenario from one of the GCMs was also used in the evaluation. The GCM scenarios were transferred to the local level using a simple downscaling approach that scales local weather variables by fixed monthly ratios (for precipitation) and fixed monthly shifts (for temperature). For those river basins where snow plays an important role in the current climate hydrology (Tacoma, Columbia, Missouri and, to a lesser extent, Boston) changes in temperature result in important changes in seasonal streamflow hydrographs. In these systems, spring snowmelt peaks are reduced and winter flows increase, on average. Changes in precipitation are generally reflected in the annual total runoff volumes more than in the seasonal shape of the hydrographs. In the Savannah and ACF systems, where snow plays a minor hydrological role, changes in hydrological response are linked more directly to temperature and precipitation changes. Effects on system performance varied from system to system, from GCM to GCM, and for each system operating objective (such as hydropower production, municipal and industrial supply, flood control, recreation, navigation and instream flow protection). Effects were generally smaller for the transient scenarios than for the doubled CO₂ scenario. In terms of streamflow, one of the transient scenarios tended to have increases at most sites, while another tended to have decreases at most sites. The third showed no general consistency over the six sites. Generally, the water resource system performance effects were determined by the hydrologic changes and the amount of buffering provided by the system's storage capacity. The effects of demand growth and other plausible future operational considerations were evaluated as well. For most sites, the effects of these non-climatic effects on future system performance would about equal or exceed the effects of climate change over system planning horizons.     

Delivering pro-poor water and sanitation services: The technical and political challenges in Malawi and Zambia

Meeting Millennium Development Goals on water and sanitation services in developing countries are fraught with difficulties, as can be seen most clearly from the experiences of Malawi and Zambia, two of the world’s poorest countries that have committed to meeting these goals. The challenges are not only technical, requiring programmatic or engineering solutions, but are also and most importantly political, because solutions will most often cause a rearrangement of the peculiar forms of power relations that have emerged within institutional and political environments of the two countries. The challenges include weak state support for water and sanitation provision, unreliable and contested indicators of coverage, poor sectoral co-ordination, and fragmented donor efforts. This field note examines these challenges in greater detail to cast new light as well as draw attention to possible solutions that can be implemented.     

Heat tracing to examine seasonal groundwater flow beneath a low-gradient stream in rural central Illinois,USA

The thermal profile of a streambed is affected by a number of factors including: temperatures of stream water and groundwater, hydraulic conductivity, thermal conductivity, heat capacity of the streambed, and the geometry of hyporheic flow paths. Changes in these parameters over time cause changes in thermal profiles. In this study, temperature data were collected at depths of 30, 60, 90 and 150 cm at six streambed wells 5 m apart along the thalweg of Little Kickapoo Creek, in rural central Illinois, USA. This is a third-order low-gradient baseflow-fed stream. A positive temperature gradient with inflection at 90-cm depth was observed during the summer period. A negative temperature gradient with inflection at 30 cm was observed during the winter period, which suggests greater influence of stream-water temperatures in the substrate during the summer. Thermal models of the streambed were built using VS2DHI to simulate the thermal profiles observed in the field. Comparison of the parameters along with analysis of temperature envelopes and Peclet numbers suggested greater upwelling and stability in temperatures during the winter than during the summer. Upwelling was more pronounced in the downstream reach of the pool in the riffle and pool sequence.     

Preliminary Characterisation of New Glass Reference Materials (GSA-1G, GSC-1G, GSD-1G and GSE-1G) by Laser Ablation-Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry Using 193 nm, 213 nm and 266 nm Wavelengths

New glass reference materials GSA-1G, GSC-1G, GSD-1G and GSE-1G have been characterised using a prototype solid state laser ablation system capable of producing wavelengths of 193 nm, 213 nm and 266 nm. This system allowed comparison of the effects of different laser wavelengths under nearly identical ablation and ICP operating conditions. The wavelengths 213 nm and 266 nm were also used at higher energy densities to evaluate the influence of energy density on quantitative analysis. In addition, the glass reference materials were analysed using commercially available 266 nm Nd:YAG and 193 nm ArF excimer lasers. Laser ablation analysis was carried out using both single spot and scanning mode ablation. Using laser ablation ICP-MS, concentrations of fifty-eight elements were determined with external calibration to the NIST SRM 610 glass reference material. Instead of applying the more common internal standardisation procedure, the total concentration of all element oxide concentrations was normalised to 100%. Major element concentrations were compared with those determined by electron microprobe. In addition to NIST SRM 610 for external calibration, USGS BCR-2G was used as a more closely matrix-matched reference material in order to compare the effect of matrix-matched and non matrix-matched calibration on quantitative analysis. The results show that the various laser wavelengths and energy densities applied produced similar results, with the exception of scanning mode ablation at 266 nm without matrix-matched calibration where deviations up to 60% from the average were found. However, results acquired using a scanning mode with a matrix-matched calibration agreed with results obtained by spot analysis. The increased abundance of large particles produced when using a scanning ablation mode with NIST SRM 610, is responsible for elemental fractionation effects caused by incomplete vaporisation of large particles in the ICP.     

Climate variability and trends in downscaled high-resolution simulations and projections over Metropolitan France

In order to fulfill the society demand for climate information at the spatial scale allowing impact studies, long-term high-resolution climate simulations are produced, over an area covering metropolitan France. One of the major goals of this article is to investigate whether such simulations appropriately simulate the spatial and temporal variability of the current climate, using two simulation chains. These start from the global IPSL-CM4 climate model, using two regional models (LMDz and MM5) at moderate resolution (15–20 km), followed with a statistical downscaling method in order to reach a target resolution of 8 km. The statistical downscaling technique includes a non-parametric method that corrects the distribution by using high-resolution analyses over France. First the uncorrected simulations are evaluated against a set of high-resolution analyses, with a focus on temperature and precipitation. Uncorrected downscaled temperatures suffer from a cold bias that is present in the global model as well. Precipitations biases have a season- and model-dependent behavior. Dynamical models overestimate rainfall but with different patterns and amplitude, but both have underestimations in the South-Eastern area (Cevennes mountains) in winter. A variance decomposition shows that uncorrected simulations fairly well capture observed variances from inter-annual to high-frequency intra-seasonal time scales. After correction, distributions match with analyses by construction, but it is shown that spatial coherence, persistence properties of warm, cold and dry episodes also match to a certain extent. Another aim of the article is to describe the changes for future climate obtained using these simulations under Scenario A1B. Results are presented on the changes between current and mid-term future (2021–2050) averages and variability over France. Interestingly, even though the same global climate model is used at the boundaries, regional climate change responses from the two models significantly differ.     

Carbon and oxygen isotope composition of foraminifera in two cores from the Bannock Basin area, eastern Mediterranean

Two cores from the Bannock Basin in the eastern Mediterranean have been analysed for δ¹⁸0 and the δ¹³C in planktonic foraminifera. One core (02-PC) was extracted from the anoxic brine, the other (08-GC) from a plateau east of the brine.

The absence of sapropelic muds in Core 08-GC from the two Holsteinian euxinic cycles, together with the presence of isotopic spikes, suggests that the plateau has risen during the last ca. 200,000 years by ca. 2.5 mm/yr.

The δ¹⁸0 amplitude of Globigerinoides ruber in eastern Mediterranean cores is only ca. 0.5%. larger than for this species in North Atlantic cores. This suggests that the surface oxygen isotopic composition of both bodies of water followed each other fairly closely during the Late Pleistocene, except during the stagnant phases.     

COSMO-CLM2: a new version of the COSMO-CLM model coupled to the Community Land Model

This study presents an evaluation of a new biosphere-atmosphere Regional Climate Model. COSMO-CLM² results from the coupling between the non-hydrostatic atmospheric model COSMO-CLM version 4.0 and the Community Land Model version 3.5 (CLM3.5). In this coupling, CLM3.5 replaces a simpler land surface parameterization (TERRA_ML) used in the standard COSMO-CLM. Compared to TERRA_ML, CLM3.5 comprises a more complete representation of land surface processes including hydrology, biogeophysics, biogeochemistry and vegetation dynamics. Historical climate simulations over Europe with COSMO-CLM and with the new COSMO-CLM² are evaluated against various data products. The simulated climate is found to be substantially affected by the coupling with CLM3.5, particularly in summer. Radiation fluxes as well as turbulent fluxes at the surface are found to be more realistically represented in COSMO-CLM². This subsequently leads to improvements of several aspects of the simulated climate (cloud cover, surface temperature and precipitation). We show that a better partitioning of turbulent fluxes is the central factor allowing for the better performances of COSMO-CLM² over COSMO-CLM. Despite these improvements, some model deficiencies still remain, most notably a substantial underestimation of surface net shortwave radiation. Overall, these results highlight the importance of land surface processes in shaping the European climate and the benefit of using an advanced land surface model for regional climate simulations.