A Conceptual Framework for Enhancing the Utility of Rainfall Hazard Forecasts for Agriculture in Marginal Environments

Semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas (especially in the tropics) are characterized by high inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability. Agriculture, which employs the bulk of the rapidly increasing populations, is largely rain-fed, low-input based and highly resource dependent. Recent spates of drought have, therefore, exacerbated the now-too-familiar specter of famine and starvation in these areas with glaring examples being the recurring episodes in sub-Saharan Africa since the great Sahel drought of 1969–1973. A great need for accurate and timely hazard forecast products in aid of agriculture thus exists.Several schemes are currently employed by various agencies around the globe in this direction. There does remain, however, a gap between product provision and user expectations. This paper examines this gap suggesting a five-point framework within which it can be addressed as an action agenda for the climate science community. The paper posits that changes are possible to existing methodologies (related to three of these points), which, within the context of current science, can greatly enhance the utility of forecast products for agriculture in marginal areas. The remaining two points have, however, been identified as requiring additional applied research and necessary pointers for addressing these issues are provided. First is the need for appropriate impact-related indicators for intra-seasonal and interannual rainfall variability that are easy to compute, amenable to forecasting and follow closely the experiences of farmers in marginal areas. The second is a consideration of appropriate forecast information formatting and communication medium that guarantee effective feedback between forecast producers and users. Specific examples of the status quo and of work currently underway are cited from southern Africa – a region currently attracting international attention as a result of recent droughts and the threat of famine.     

The effect of low‐permeability fault zones on groundwater flow in a compartmentalized system. Experimental evidence from a carbonate aquifer (Southern Italy)

The hydrogeological behaviour of fault zones in carbonate aquifers is often neglected in conceptual and numerical models. Furthermore, no information is available regarding the relationships between piezometric levels when significant compartmentalization occurs due to the occurrence of low‐flow fault zones. The aim of this study was to refine the conceptualization of subsurface flow in faulted carbonate aquifers and to analyse relationships between sub‐basins within a compartmentalized aquifer system in Southern Italy. The interactions between compartments that straddle low‐flow faults were investigated over four hydrologic years using a statistical approach to compare (i) the hydraulic heads within two wells located up‐ and down‐gradient of tectonic discontinuities as well as (ii) the rainfall and piezometric levels. The results of this study suggest that a set of barriers exists between the wells, and, therefore, the total head loss observed between the wells (approximately 80 m) should be distributed across several aquitards, with one aquitard exhibiting a relatively high permeability or low degree of integrity. Due to slight differences in permeability, transient conditions in aquitards can occur over relatively short periods, which is in agreement with the results of the statistical data analysis. Consequently, rather than being caused by pure aquitards, aquifer system compartmentalization likely results from slight differences in the permeability between lower‐permeability fault zones and adjacent higher‐permeability protoliths. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Styles of salt tectonics in the Sab’atayn basin,onshore Yemen

A variety of distinct salt tectonic features are present in the Sab’atayn Basin of western Yemen. Based on the interpretation of regional 2D seismic reflection data and exploration wells in the central part of the basin, an Upper Jurassic evaporite formation produced numerous salt rollers, salt pillows, reactive, flip-flop, and falling diapirs. Due to regional extension, halokinetics began as soon as the early Cretaceous, within just a few million years after the deposition of the Tithonian Sab’atayn evaporite sequence, by formation of salt rollers. The salt locally formed salt pillows which evolved to reactive and active salt diapirs and diapiric salt walls as the result of renewed, but low-strain extension in the basin. Some of the diapiric walls further evolved into falling diapirs due to ongoing extension. As the result of a prominent extensional episode at the end of the Cretaceous, many of the diapiric walls in the basin are controlled by large normal faults on their updip flanks. As the post-Cretaceous sedimentary cover is largely missing in the study area, the assumed reactivation of salt structures during the Cenozoic remains poorly constrained. The interpreted changes in the style of salt tectonics in the Sab’atayn Basin offer a better understanding of the regional-scale tectonic development of the Arabian plate during the late Jurassic and Cretaceous.     

The role of aluminium in the preservation of microbial biosignatures

Demonstrating the biogenicity of presumptive microfossils in the geological record often requires supporting chemical signatures, including isotopic signatures. Understanding the mechanisms that promote the preservation of microbial biosignatures associated with microfossils is fundamental to unravelling the palaeomicrobiological history of the material. Organomineralization of microorganisms is likely to represent the first stages of microbial fossilisation and has been hypothesised to prevent the autolytic degradation of microbial cell envelope structures. In the present study, two distinct fossilisation textures(permineralised microfossils and iron oxide encrusted cell envelopes)identified throughout iron-rich rock samples were analysed using nanoscale secondary ion mass spectrometry(NanoSIMS). In this system, aluminium is enriched around the permineralised microfossils, while iron is enriched within the intracellularly, within distinct cell envelopes. Remarkably,while cell wall structures are indicated, carbon and nitrogen biosignatures are not preserved with permineralised microfossils. Therefore, the enrichment of aluminium, delineating these microfossils appears to have been critical to their structural preservation in this iron-rich environment. In contrast,NanoSIMS analysis of mineral encrusted cell envelopes reveals that preserved carbon and nitrogen biosignatures are associated with the cell envelope structures of these microfossils. Interestingly, iron is depleted in regions where carbon and nitrogen are preserved. In contrast aluminium appears to be slightly enriched in regions associated with remnant cell envelope structures. The correlation of aluminium with carbon and nitrogen biosignatures suggests the complexation of aluminium with preserved cell envelope structures before or immediately after cell death may have inactivated autolytic activity preventing the rapid breakdown of these organic, macromolecular structures.Combined, these results highlight that aluminium may play an important role in the preservation of microorganisms within the rock record.     

Toxicity and compositional analysis of aromatic hydrocarbon fractions of two pairs of undegraded and biodegraded crude oils from the Santa Maria (California) and Vienna basins

The monoaromatic and total aromatic hydrocarbon fractions of two pairs of undegraded and moderately biodegraded crude oils from the Santa Maria basin (California) and the Vienna basin (Austria), all dominated by unresolved complex mixtures, were studied regarding their composition and toxicity towards the feeding rate of the marine mussel Mytilus edulis. Total aromatic and monoaromatic hydrocarbon fractions from sulphur-rich Monterey Formation crude oils were slightly more toxic than the fractions isolated from sulphur-lean Vienna basin oils. The ecotoxicity tests did not show any significant differences in toxicity of aromatic compounds from undegraded or in-reservoir biodegraded crude oils from the same oilfield although some differences in composition were observed. Organic sulphur compounds are suspected to cause the slightly higher toxicity of the aromatic hydrocarbon fractions from the Monterey oils.     

Law and fisheries reform: Legislative and policy developments in South African fisheries over the decade 1994–2004

Following the enactment of the Constitution in 1996, the South African government undertook a process of legal reform in the fishing sector. This led to the publication of a new fisheries policy endorsing equity and sustainability, as reflected in the Marine Living Resources Act. This paper examines efforts to implement the policy, particularly the objective of “transformation”, against the background of law reform in fisheries over the last decade. The discussion is located within the context of related domestic legal developments and current trends in international fisheries law. Methods for enhancing effective implementation of the new fisheries policy are highlighted.     

Can shells of freshwater mussels (Unionidae) be used to estimate low summer discharge of rivers and associated droughts?

This paper examines if shell oxygen isotope ratios (δ¹⁸O_ar) of Unio sp. can be used as a proxy of past discharge of the river Meuse. The proxy was developed from a modern dataset for the reference time interval 1997–2007, which showed a logarithmic relationship between discharge and measured water oxygen isotope ratios (δ¹⁸O_w). To test this relationship for past time intervals, δ¹⁸O_ar values were measured in the aragonite of the growth increments of four Unio sp. shells; two from a relatively wet period and two from a very dry time interval (1910–1918 and 1969–1977, respectively). Shell δ¹⁸O_ar records were converted into δ¹⁸O_w values using existing water temperature records. Summer δ¹⁸O_w values, reconstructed from δ¹⁸O_ar of 1910–1918, showed a similar range as the summer δ¹⁸O_w values for the reference time interval 1997–2007, whilst summer reconstructed δ¹⁸O_w values for the time interval 1969–1977 were anomalously high. These high δ¹⁸O_w values suggest that the river Meuse experienced severe summer droughts during the latter time interval. δ¹⁸O_w values were then applied to calculate discharge values. It was attempted to estimate discharge from the reconstructed δ¹⁸O_w values using the logarithmic relationship between δ¹⁸O_w and discharge. A comparison of the calculated summer discharge results with observed discharge data showed that Meuse low-discharge events below a threshold value of 6 m³/s can be detected in the reconstructed δ¹⁸O_w records, but true quantification remains problematic.     

Spatiotemporal variations of extreme sea levels around the South China Sea: assessing the influence of tropical cyclones,monsoons and major climate modes

With sea levels projected to rise as a result of climate change, it is imperative to understand not only long-term average trends, but also the spatial and temporal patterns of extreme sea level. In this study, we use a comprehensive set of 30 tide gauges spanning 1954–2014 to characterize the spatial and temporal variations of extreme sea level around the low-lying and densely populated margins of the South China Sea. We also explore the long-term evolution of extreme sea level by applying a dynamic linear model for the generalized extreme value distribution (DLM-GEV), which can be used for assessing the changes in extreme sea levels with time. Our results show that the sea-level maxima distributions range from ~?90 to 400 cm and occur seasonally across the South China Sea. In general, the sea-level maxima at northern tide gauges are approximately 25–30% higher than those in the south and are highest in summer as tropical cyclone-induced surges dominate the northern signal. In contrast, the smaller signal in the south is dominated by monsoonal winds in the winter. The trends of extreme high percentiles of sea-level values are broadly consistent with the changes in mean sea level. The DLM-GEV model characterizes the interannual variability of extreme sea level, and hence, the 50-year return levels at most tide gauges. We find small but statistically significant correlations between extreme sea level and both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Our study provides new insight into the dynamic relationships between extreme sea level, mean sea level and the tidal cycle in the South China Sea, which can contribute to preparing for coastal risks at multi-decadal timescales.

     

Seasonal dynamics of ciliated protozoa and their potential food in an eutrophic estuary (Bay of Biscay)

Ciliate assemblages, together with phytoplankton and heterotrophic nanoflagellates (HNF) as their potential food, have been surveyed monthly along the salinity gradient of the Nervión River estuary from March 2000 to March 2002. A total of 135 taxa of ciliate have been identified corresponding to 20 orders. Scuticociliates, naked choreotrichs and oligotrichs were the most abundant groups, distributed throughout a broad range of salinity. In addition to these groups, which were the dominant taxa in the middle estuary, tintinnids were characteristic of the ciliate assemblages of the outer estuary whereas in the innermost part naked choreotrichs and oligotrichs decreased in number, being substituted by sessilids, hymenostomatids, peniculids and cyrtophorids. Total ciliate concentrations were among the highest reported in the literature for other estuaries and coastal waters, frequently reaching 10⁵ cells l⁻¹. Meanwhile, tintinnid concentrations were comparable with those of other estuarine and coastal waters. Based on a principal component analysis (PCA) three main groups were delineated, with ciliates and their potential food sources as variables. One was that constituted by freshwater ciliate such as sessilids, hymenostomatids, cyrtophorids and pleurostomatids, which appear in low numbers in the innermost part, mainly in winter. Another group contained diatoms, chlorophytes, flagellates, euplotids and scuticociliates, all of them broadly distributed along the estuary and reaching their maximum density in late spring–summer. The third group was made up of taxa mainly appearing at the seaward end such as dinoflagellates, cyanobacteria, haptorids, tintinnids, naked choreotrichs and oligotrichs, which reached the highest densities in summer and early autumn. Ciliates do not seem to be food limited in the Nervión River estuary or much controlled by metazoan grazing.