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21.
Giuseppe Cello Giovanni Deiana Luca Ferelli Leonardo Marchegiani Laura Maschio Stefano Mazzoli Alessandro Michetti Leonello Serva Emanuele Tondi Tiziano Vittori 《Journal of Seismology》2000,4(4):357-364
On September 26, 1997, at 00.33 h(GMT), a Mw 5.7 earthquake occurred in the axial zone of theUmbria-Marche Apennines of central Italy, in the Colfiorito basin area. At09.40 h (GMT), a Mw 6.0 earthquake again struck the area withinthe Colfiorito basin, a major intramontane basin filled with Quaternarycontinental deposits. The two main shocks, and the associated aftershockswere within a roughly NNW-SSE trending zone of largest damage (Imax10), in which ground deformation has been observed. Along this trend,Cello et al. (1997a) had mapped a few capable faults, showingtranstensional to pure extensional kinematics. Field inspection of themapped faults, carried out after the main shocks, revealed that some ofthem were locally reactivated (for lengths of several hundreds metres andsurface slip in the range of 2–8 cm) during the September 26, 1997earthquakes. 相似文献
22.
23.
Decline of traditional landscape in a protected area of the southwestern Alps: The fate of enclosed pasture patches in the land mosaic shift 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
【Title】
【Author】
【Addresses】1
Traditional landscape elements such as pasture patches enclosed in a forest matrix are progressively disappearing throughout the European Alps. We assessed the land mosaic shift of a protected area located in the western Italian Alps. In particular, the dynamics of pasture patches were studied at both landscape and stand level. Land-cover mapping through object-oriented analysis of historical aerial photographs was used to assess land-cover changes between 1954 and 2000. Spatial statistics were used to quantify landscape patterns, and field samplings within pasture patches were used to explore tree regeneration structure and composition. Our results showed a significant increase in the number of pasture patches caused by their fragmentation following forest expansion. The total surface area of pasture patches decreased by 43% and their core area decreased by 94%. The encroachment of trees on less accessible areas of the pasture patches caused a reduction of patch shape at landscape scale. The gap filling process started 40-50 years ago and began with an early invasion of light demanding species like sycamore maple (Acer pseudoplatanus L.) and common ash (Fraxinus excelsior L.), followed by European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and secondarily silver fir (Abies alba Mill.). Traditional land-use and population decline in the Pesio Valley led to a reduction in ecotone areas. A transition to a more homogeneous landscape is expected in the next decades. Given the cultural and productive nature of these mountain meadow-pasture communities, extensive livestock grazing systems could be used to manage their future conservation. 相似文献
【Author】
【Addresses】1
Traditional landscape elements such as pasture patches enclosed in a forest matrix are progressively disappearing throughout the European Alps. We assessed the land mosaic shift of a protected area located in the western Italian Alps. In particular, the dynamics of pasture patches were studied at both landscape and stand level. Land-cover mapping through object-oriented analysis of historical aerial photographs was used to assess land-cover changes between 1954 and 2000. Spatial statistics were used to quantify landscape patterns, and field samplings within pasture patches were used to explore tree regeneration structure and composition. Our results showed a significant increase in the number of pasture patches caused by their fragmentation following forest expansion. The total surface area of pasture patches decreased by 43% and their core area decreased by 94%. The encroachment of trees on less accessible areas of the pasture patches caused a reduction of patch shape at landscape scale. The gap filling process started 40-50 years ago and began with an early invasion of light demanding species like sycamore maple (Acer pseudoplatanus L.) and common ash (Fraxinus excelsior L.), followed by European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and secondarily silver fir (Abies alba Mill.). Traditional land-use and population decline in the Pesio Valley led to a reduction in ecotone areas. A transition to a more homogeneous landscape is expected in the next decades. Given the cultural and productive nature of these mountain meadow-pasture communities, extensive livestock grazing systems could be used to manage their future conservation. 相似文献
24.
The Maoxian landslide as seen from space: detecting precursors of failure with Sentinel-1 data 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Emanuele Intrieri Federico Raspini Alfio Fumagalli Ping Lu Sara Del Conte Paolo Farina Jacopo Allievi Alessandro Ferretti Nicola Casagli 《Landslides》2018,15(1):123-133
Post-event Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) analysis on a stack of 45 C-band SAR images acquired by the ESA Sentinel-1 satellites from 9 October 2014 to 19 June 2017 allowed the identification of a clear precursory deformation signal for the Maoxian landslide (Mao County, Sichuan Province, China). The landslide occurred in the early morning of 24 June 2017 and killed more than 100 people in the village of Xinmo. Sentinel-1 images have been processed through an advanced multi-interferogram analysis capable of maximising the density of measurement points, generating ground deformation maps and displacement time series for an area of 460 km2 straddling the Minjiang River and the Songping Gully. InSAR data clearly show the precursors of the slope failure in the source area of the Maoxian landslide, with a maximum displacement rate detected of 27 mm/year along the line of sight of the satellite. Deformation time series of measurement points identified within the main scarp of the landslide exhibit an acceleration starting from April 2017. A detailed time series analysis leads to the classification of different deformation behaviours. The Fukuzono method for forecasting the time of failure appear to be applicable to the displacement data exhibiting progressive acceleration. Results suggest that satellite radar data, systematically acquired over large areas with short revisiting time, could be used not only as a tool for mapping unstable areas, but also for landslide monitoring, at least for some typologies of sliding phenomena. 相似文献
25.
Chao Zhou Kunlong Yin Ying Cao Emanuele Intrieri Bayes Ahmed Filippo Catani 《Landslides》2018,15(11):2211-2225
Landslide displacement prediction is an essential component for developing landslide early warning systems. In the Three Gorges Reservoir area (TGRA), landslides experience step-like deformations (i.e., periods of stability interrupted by abrupt accelerations) generally from April to September due to the influence of precipitation and reservoir scheduled level variations. With respect to many traditional machine learning techniques, two issues exist relative to displacement prediction, namely the random fluctuation of prediction results and inaccurate prediction when step-like deformations take place. In this study, a novel and original prediction method was proposed by combining the wavelet transform (WT) and particle swarm optimization-kernel extreme learning machine (PSO-KELM) methods, and by considering the landslide causal factors. A typical landslide with a step-like behavior, the Baishuihe landslide in TGRA, was taken as a case study. The cumulated total displacement was decomposed into trend displacement, periodic displacement (controlled by internal geological conditions and external triggering factors respectively), and noise. The displacement items were predicted separately by multi-factor PSO-KELM considering various causal factors, and the total displacement was obtained by summing them up. An accurate prediction was achieved by the proposed method, including the step-like deformation period. The performance of the proposed method was compared with that of the multi-factor extreme learning machine (ELM), support vector regression (SVR), backward propagation neural network (BPNN), and single-factor PSO-KELM. Results show that the PSO-KELM outperforms the other models, and the prediction accuracy can be improved by considering causal factors. 相似文献
26.
Tommaso Carlà Emanuele Intrieri Federico Di Traglia Teresa Nolesini Giovanni Gigli Nicola Casagli 《Landslides》2018,15(7):1443-1444
■■■The paper “Discussion to: Guidelines on the use of inverse velocity method as a tool for setting alarm thresholds and forecasting landslides and structure collapses by T. Carlà, E. Intrieri, F. Di Traglia, T. Nolesini, G. Gigli and N. Casagli” by Bozzano et al. brings forward new considerations on an issue of extreme concern in landslide risk management. To this day, the ability to predict catastrophic landslide failures from slope surface displacements is a problem dictated more by practical constraints rather than by theoretical uncertainties. In this sense, the development of data interpretation practices is crucial. This short reply provides a few further insights with regard to this subject, also in the context of the recently published literature. 相似文献
27.
According to the Hyogo Framework for Action, increasing resilience to drought requires the development of a people-centered monitoring and early warning system, or in other words, a system capable of providing useful and understandable information to the community at risk. To achieve this objective, it is crucial to negotiate a credible and legitimate knowledge system, which should include both expert and local knowledge. Although several benefits can be obtained, the integration of local and scientific knowledge to support drought monitoring is still far from being the standard in drought monitoring and early warning. This is due to many reasons, that is, the reciprocal skepticism of local communities and decision makers, and the limits in the capacity to understand and assess the complex web of drought impacts. This work describes a methodology based on the sequential implementation of Cognitive Mapping and Bayesian Belief Networks to collect, structure and analyze stakeholders’ perceptions of drought impacts. The methodology was applied to analyze drought impacts at Lake Trasimeno (central Italy). A set of drought indicators was developed based on stakeholders’ perceptions. A validation phase was carried out comparing the perceived indicators of drought and the physical indicators (i.e., Standard Precipitation Index and the level of the lake). Some preliminary conclusions were drawn concerning the reliability of local knowledge to support drought monitoring and early warning. 相似文献
28.
Analysis of climatic series needs pre-processing to attain spatial- and time-consistent homogeneity. The latter, in high-resolution investigations, can rely on the strong correlations among series, which in turn requires a strict fulfilment of the quality standard in terms of completeness. Fifty-nine daily precipitation and temperature series of 50?years from Trentino, northern Italy, were pre-processed for climatic analysis. This study describes: (1) the preliminary gap-filling protocol for daily series, based on geostatistical correlations on both horizontal and vertical domains; (2) an algorithm to reduce inhomogeneity owing to the systematic snowfall underestimation of rain gauges; and (3) the processing protocol to take into account any source of undocumented inhomogeneity in series. This was performed by application of the t test and F-test of R code RHtestV2. This pre-processing shows straightforward results; correction of snowfall measurements re-evaluates attribution of patterns of altitudinal trends in time trends; homogenization increases the strength of the climatic signal and reduces the scattering of time trends, assessed over a few decades, of a factor of 2. 相似文献
29.
Guidelines on the use of inverse velocity method as a tool for setting alarm thresholds and forecasting landslides and structure collapses 总被引:4,自引:4,他引:0
Tommaso Carlà Emanuele Intrieri Federico Di Traglia Teresa Nolesini Giovanni Gigli Nicola Casagli 《Landslides》2017,14(2):517-534
Predicting the time of failure is a topic of major concern in the field of geological risk management. Several approaches, based on the analysis of displacement monitoring data, have been proposed in recent years to deal with the issue. Among these, the inverse velocity method surely demonstrated its effectiveness in anticipating the time of collapse of rock slopes displaying accelerating trends of deformation rate. However, inferring suitable linear trend lines and deducing reliable failure predictions from inverse velocity plots are processes that may be hampered by the noise present in the measurements; data smoothing is therefore a very important phase of inverse velocity analyses. In this study, different filters are tested on velocity time series from four case studies of geomechanical failure in order to improve, in retrospect, the reliability of failure predictions: Specifically, three major landslides and the collapse of an historical city wall in Italy have been examined. The effects of noise on the interpretation of inverse velocity graphs are also assessed. General guidelines to conveniently perform data smoothing, in relation to the specific characteristics of the acceleration phase, are deduced. Finally, with the aim of improving the practical use of the method and supporting the definition of emergency response plans, some standard procedures to automatically setup failure alarm levels are proposed. The thresholds which separate the alarm levels would be established without needing a long period of neither reference historical data nor calibration on past failure events. 相似文献
30.
The Calatabiano landslide (southern Italy): preliminary GB-InSAR monitoring data and remote 3D mapping 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Luca Lombardi Massimiliano Nocentini William Frodella Teresa Nolesini Federica Bardi Emanuele Intrieri Tommaso Carlà Lorenzo Solari Giulia Dotta Federica Ferrigno Nicola Casagli 《Landslides》2017,14(2):685-696
On 24 October 2015, following a period of heavy rainfall, a landslide occurred in the Calatabiano Municipality (Sicily Island, Southern Italy), causing the rupture of a water pipeline supplying water to the city of Messina. Following this event, approximately 250,000 inhabitants of the city suffered critical water shortages for several days. Consequently, on 6 November 2015, a state of emergency was declared (O.C.D.P. 295/2015) by the National Italian Department of Civil Protection (DPC). During the emergency management phase, a provisional by-pass, consisting of three 350-m long pipes passing through the landslide area, was constructed to restore water to the city. Furthermore, on 11 November 2015, a landslide remote-sensing monitoring system was installed with the following purposes: (i) analyse the landslide geomorphological and kinematic features in order to assess the residual landslide risk and (ii) support the early warning procedures needed to ensure the safety of the personnel involved in the by-pass construction and the landslide stabilization works. The monitoring system was based on the combined use of Ground-Based Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (GB-InSAR) and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS). In this work, the preliminary results of the monitoring activities and a remote 3D map of the landslide area are presented. 相似文献