Distribution and diversity of open-ocean,near-bottom macroplankton in the western Mediterranean: Analysis at different spatio-temporal scales

We analyzed the distribution, diversity, and composition of western Mediterranean macroplankton (excluding gelatinous taxa) in the water column over depths of ca. 550–850 m, with special attention to near-bottom (0–1.5 and ca. 5–77 m above the bottom, mab) levels, and including data from three areas (off the coasts of Catalonia, and to the NW, and SE of Mallorca, Balearic Islands) in the period 1991–2008. Spatio-temporal changes in macroplankton abundance were evaluated as follows: (i) by seasonal sampling in 2007 off the Catalonian coast, (ii) by comparing Catalonian and Balearic Island slopes, and (iii) by comparing a fixed station on the Catalonian slope (at 550–800 m depth) at decadal (1991/1992–2007/2008) time scales. Diversity (in terms of species richness, S) was greater (i) at ca. 5–77 mab than at 0–1.5 mab, (ii) over the insular slopes of the Balearic Island (around Mallorca) than over the mainland Catalonian slopes, and (iii) in the period 1991/1992 than in 2007, likely related to higher values of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index in 1991/1992. In most analyses species composition was strongly influenced by the degree of stratification and homogenization of the water column in summer–autumn and winter–spring respectively and by location (longitude). Changes consisted mainly of higher density of macroplankton (e.g. abundance of the dominant euphausiids Nematoscelis megalops, Meganyctiphanes norvegica and Euphausia krohni and of the fish Cyclothone braueri) between June and October, parallel to an increase in the T and S close to the bottom. This coincided with changes in the flow of Levantine intermediate water (LIW) in the area. Aggregation of adult forms of the dominant species close to the bottom in summer–autumn could be favored because summer is the period of highest density of food – copepods, mainly Calanus helgolandicus – near the bottom off the Catalan slope. The formation of a thermocline in the water column and the reinforcement of the permanent thermohaline front at the shelf-slope break during summer at ca. 400 m in the Balearic Basin may also enhance this tendency toward greater aggregation of deep macroplankton under stratified water column conditions.     

The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution part 2: historical and future simulations of precipitation

This paper presents the first multi-model ensemble of 10-year, “convection-permitting” kilometer-scale regional climate model (RCM) scenario simulations downscaled from selected CMIP5 GCM projections for historical and end of century time slices. The technique is to first downscale the CMIP5 GCM projections to an intermediate 12–15 km resolution grid using RCMs, and then use these fields to downscale further to the kilometer scale. The aim of the paper is to provide an overview of the representation of the precipitation characteristics and their projected changes over the greater Alpine domain within a Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment Flagship Pilot Study and the European Climate Prediction system project, tasked with investigating convective processes at the kilometer scale. An ensemble of 12 simulations performed by different research groups around Europe is analyzed. The simulations are evaluated through comparison with high resolution observations while the complementary ensemble of 12 km resolution driving models is used as a benchmark to evaluate the added value of the convection-permitting ensemble. The results show that the kilometer-scale ensemble is able to improve the representation of fine scale details of mean daily, wet-day/hour frequency, wet-day/hour intensity and heavy precipitation on a seasonal scale, reducing uncertainty over some regions. It also improves the representation of the summer diurnal cycle, showing more realistic onset and peak of convection. The kilometer-scale ensemble refines and enhances the projected patterns of change from the coarser resolution simulations and even modifies the sign of the precipitation intensity change and heavy precipitation over some regions. The convection permitting simulations also show larger changes for all indices over the diurnal cycle, also suggesting a change in the duration of convection over some regions. A larger positive change of frequency of heavy to severe precipitation is found. The results are encouraging towards the use of convection-permitting model ensembles to produce robust assessments of the local impacts of future climate change.

     

Flood Events of Selected European Rivers in the Sixteenth Century

The severity and frequency of sixteenth-century floods of the Rhine, the Main, the middle and upper Elbe with its tributaries, rivers of northern and central Italy, the Garonne and rivers in Catalonia and Andalusia are analyzed using documentary evidence. The basic topographical and hydrological characteristics of the rivers investigated as well as the synoptic causes of their flooding during the instrumental period are presented. Different examples of modifications of the run-off process due to anthropogenic activity are discussed. Prevalence in flood occurrence during the second half of the sixteenth century in comparison to the first half is typical for central European and Andalusian rivers (mainly in the 1560s and 1590s) and agrees with the evolution of precipitation patterns. On the other hand, Italian and Catalonian rivers, in part, had a higher occurrence of floods during the first half of the century. Changes in the flooding seasons in both halves of the century are not unambiguous. Results of an analysis on a broader European scale show floods to be a random natural phenomena with limited areal extent defined by the spatial influence of forcing meteorological factors (continuous heavy rains, sudden melting of thick snow cover, etc.). Despite some limitations of documentary evidence, series of reconstructed historical floods are valuable sources of proxy data which can be utilized for the study of the flooding fluctuations in the pre-instrumental period.     

A probabilistic model for rainfall—induced shallow landslide prediction at the regional scale

This paper presents a new probabilistic physically-based computational model (called PG_TRIGRS) for the probabilistic analysis of rainfall-induced landslide hazard at a regional scale. The model is based on the deterministic approach implemented in the original TRIGRS code, developed by Baum et al. (USGS Open File Report 02–424, 2002) and Baum et al. (USGS Open File Report 08–1159, 2008). Its key innovative features are: (a) the application of Ordinary Kriging for the estimation of the spatial distributions of the first two statistical moments of the probability density functions of the relevant soil properties over the entire area, based on limited available information gathered from available information from limited site investigation campaigns, and (b) the use of Rosenblueth’s Point Estimate method as a more efficient alternative to the classical Monte Carlo method for the reliability analysis performed at the single-cell level to obtain the probability of failure associated to a given rainfall event. The application of the PG_TRIGRS code to a selected study area located in the Umbria Region for different idealized but realistic rainfall scenarios has demonstrated the computational efficiency and the accuracy of the proposed methodology, assessed by comparing predicted landslide densities with available field observations reported by the IFFI project. In particular, while the model might fail to identify all individual landslide events, its predictions are remarkably good in identifying the areas of higher landslide density.     

Bayesian event tree for eruption forecasting (BET_EF) at Vesuvius,Italy: a retrospective forward application to the 1631 eruption

Reliable forecasting of the next eruption at Vesuvius is the main scientific factor in defining effective strategies to reduce volcanic risk in one of the most dangerous volcanic areas of the world. In this paper, we apply a recently developed probabilistic code for eruption forecasting to new and independent historical data related to the pre-eruptive phase of the 1631 eruption. The results obtained point out three main issues: (1) the importance of “cold” historical data (according to Guidoboni 2008) related to pre-eruptive phases for evaluating forecasting tools and possibly refining them; (2) the BET_EF code implemented for Vesuvius would have forecasted the 1631 eruption satisfactorily, marking different stages of the pre-eruptive phase; (3) the code shows that pre-eruptive signals that significantly increase the probability of eruption were likely detected more than 2 months before the event.     

Sabella spallanzanii filter-feeding on bacterial community: ecological implications and applications

The filtration process of Sabella spallanzanii Gmelin on bacterial community was studied in a coastal area of the Northern Ionian Sea (Mediterranean Sea) at three sites, S. Vito, Lido Gandoli and Lido Silvana, where some specimens of S. spallanzanii were transplanted. Analyses were performed both on water and worm samples. A total of six microbial groups were examined: culturable heterotrophic bacteria, total culturable bacteria at 37 degrees C, culturable vibrios, total and fecal coliforms and fecal streptococci. The bacterial densities were usually orders of magnitude higher in the worm homogenates than in the corresponding seawater and the highest values were observed in August. The ability of S. spallanzanii to accumulate the microbial pollution indicators suggests this species can be employed as a bioindicator for monitoring water quality. Moreover, the accumulation capability of S. spallanzanii for specific micro-organisms provides a potential role in sewage bioremediation.     

Changes in event-based streamflow magnitude and timing after suburban development with infiltration-based stormwater management

Green stormwater infrastructure implementation in urban watersheds has outpaced our understanding of practice effectiveness on streamflow response to precipitation events. Long-term monitoring of experimental suburban watersheds in Clarksburg, Maryland, USA, provided an opportunity to examine changes in event-based streamflow metrics in two treatment watersheds that transitioned from agriculture to suburban development with a high density of infiltration-focused stormwater control measures (SCMs). Urban Treatment 1 has predominantly single family detached housing with 33% impervious cover and 126 SCMs. Urban Treatment 2 has a mix of single family detached and attached housing with 44% impervious cover and 219 SCMs. Differences in streamflow-event magnitude and timing were assessed using a before-after-control-reference-impact design to compare urban treatment watersheds with a forested control and an urban control with detention-focused SCMs. Streamflow and precipitation events were identified from 14 years of sub-daily monitoring data with an automated approach to characterize peak streamflow, runoff yield, runoff ratio, streamflow duration, time to peak, rise rate, and precipitation depth for each event. Results indicated that streamflow magnitude and timing were altered by urbanization in the urban treatment watersheds, even with SCMs treating 100% of the impervious area. The largest hydrologic changes were observed in streamflow magnitude metrics, with greater hydrologic change in Urban Treatment 2 compared with Urban Treatment 1. Although streamflow changes were observed in both urban treatment watersheds, SCMs were able to mitigate peak flows and runoff volumes compared with the urban control. The urban control had similar impervious cover to Urban Treatment 2, but Urban Treatment 2 had more than twice the precipitation depth needed to initiate a flow response and lower median peak flow and runoff yield for events less than 20 mm. Differences in impervious cover between the Urban Treatment watersheds appeared to be a large driver of differences in streamflow response, rather than SCM density. Overall, use of infiltration-focused SCMs implemented at a watershed-scale did provide enhanced attenuation of peak flow and runoff volumes compared to centralized-detention SCMs.     

Long-term changes in the composition and diversity of deep-slope megabenthos and trophic webs off Catalonia (western Mediterranean): Are trends related to climatic oscillations?

For depths ranging between 650 and 1700 m we have compared recent (2007-2008) to older (from 1988 to 1992) data, searching for long-term changes in the distribution, abundance and composition of deep megafauna (fish and decapods) off the central Catalonian coasts (western Mediterranean). Overall, in the depth interval between 600 and 1100 m, we found higher abundance of fish in 1988-1992 than in 2007, a decrease simultaneous with an increase of decapod crustaceans. Older and more recent haul replicates (after 20 years) had similar assemblage composition in the depth range 1300-1700 m, whereas we found significant changes at 1000 m. Diversity of fish was greater in 1988-1992 than in 2007, while diversity of decapod crustaceans increased between the two periods. Thus, there was a reorganization in benthopelagic communities, rather than a loss of biodiversity. This was in agreement with long-term changes described for diversity of (neritic) zooplankton in the western Mediterranean. We found a dominance of plankton-suprabenthos feeders (e.g. fish such as Lepidion lepidion, Hymenocephalus italicus and Alepocephalus rostratus; the decapods Plesionika spp. and Sergestes arcticus) in 1988-1992. In 2007 by contrast, dominance of plankton-suprabenthos feeders decreased, and assemblages were increasingly composed of benthos-feeding decapods (e.g. Aristeus antennatus, Pontophilus norvegicus and some hermit crabs) preying for instance on polychaetes. These results coincided with low/negative North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO) in 2007 and in the period immediately before (2004-2006) 2007 (increase of benthos feeders), and with high average NAO in 1988-1992 (decrease of benthos feeders, which in turn may enhance abundance of plankton feeders). The benthic decapod Calocaris macandreae and suprabenthos (small crustaceans, mostly peracarids, living on and just beneath the sediment surface) are key prey in food webs off Catalonian margins, acting as links between surface oceanographic processes and abundance of benthopelagic predators. A conceptual model is presented relating changes in climatic conditions with changes in deep-sea, benthic-suprabenthic food webs. Calocari macandreae was more abundant in 2007, after 3 years of negative NAO. Under negative/low NAO, rainfall and river discharges increase in the NW Mediterranean, which may enhance advective food inputs for macrobenthos. This fits well with the higher abundance of benthos feeders in 2007, as well as with the significant deepening of decapod crustacean assemblages in that same period. Suprabenthos, being short-lived and annual species, were more abundant under positive NAO conditions (1988-1992), probably enhancing the abundance or aggregation of suprabenthic/pelagic feeders.