"The Bush is No More": Insights on Institutional Change and Natural Resource Availability in Rural South Africa

The past decade has brought substantial transition to South Africa. The introduction of democracy in 1994 has yielded important political and socioeconomic transformations affecting millions of people. Here, we explore the impact of institutional and structural changes on the availability and management of fuelwood, a key natural resource in rural South Africa. As in other developing regions, many households depend on natural resources for both sustenance and energy needs. Drawing on qualitative data from 32 interviews, our objective is to describe, from the perspective of the respondents, (1) resource scarcity, (2) the underlying causes of resource scarcity, (3) the role of traditional authority in managing resources, and (4) strategies used by community members in the face of resource scarcity. The results have important implications for the well-being of both social and natural systems in many transitional, rural developing societies.     

Fault plane orientations of microearthquakes at Mt. Etna from the inversion of P-wave rise times

A crucial point in the analysis of tectonic earthquakes occurring in a volcanic area is the inference of the orientation of the structures along which the ruptures occur. These structures represent zones of weakness which could favor the migration of melt toward the surface and the assessment of their geometry is a fundamental step toward efficient evaluation of volcanic risk. We analyzed a high-quality dataset of 171 low-magnitude, tectonic earthquakes that occurred at Mt. Etna during the 2002–2003 eruption. We applied a recently developed technique aimed at inferring the source parameters (source size, dip and strike fault) and the intrinsic quality factor Q_p of P waves from the inversion of rise times. The technique is based on numerically calibrated relationships among the rise time of first P waves and the source parameters for a circular crack rupturing at a constant velocity. For the most of the events the directivity source effect did not allow us to constrain the fault plane orientation. For a subset of 45 events with well constrained focal mechanisms we were able to constrain the “true” fault plane orientation. The level of resolution of the fault planes was assessed through a non linear analysis based on the random deviates technique. The significance of the retrieved fault plane solutions and the fit of the assumed source model to data were assessed through a χ-square test. Most of the retrieved fault plane solutions agree with the geometrical trend of known surface faults. The inferred source parameters and Q_p are in agreement with the results of previous studies.     

Wildfire-Migration Dynamics: Lessons from Colorado's Fourmile Canyon Fire

The number of people living in wildfire-prone wildland–urban interface (WUI) communities is on the rise. However, no prior study has investigated wildfire-induced residential relocation from WUI areas after a major fire event. To provide insight into the association between sociodemographic and sociopsychological characteristics and wildfire-related intention to move, we use data from a survey of WUI residents in Boulder and Larimer counties, Colorado. The data were collected 2 months after the devastating Fourmile Canyon fire destroyed 169 homes and burned more than 6,000 acres of public and private land. Although this study is working with a small migrant sample, logistic regression models demonstrate that survey respondents intending to move in relation to wildfire incidence do not differ sociodemographically from their nonmigrant counterparts. They do, however, show significantly higher levels of risk perception. Investigating destination choices shows a preference for short-distance moves.     

Effects of Harbor Modification on Crescent City, California��s Tsunami Vulnerability

More damaging tsunamis have impacted Crescent City, California in historic times than any other location on the West Coast of the USA. Crescent City??s harbor has undergone significant modification since the early 20th century, including construction of several breakwaters, dredging, and a 200?×?300?m² small boat basin. In 2006, a M _w 8.3 earthquake in the Kuril Islands generated a moderate Pacific-wide tsunami. Crescent City recorded the highest amplitudes of any tide gauge in the Pacific and was the only location to experience structural damage. Strong currents damaged docks and boats within the small boat basin, causing more than US?$20 million in damage and replacement costs. We examine how modifications to Crescent City??s harbor may have affected its vulnerability to moderate tsunamis such as the 2006 event. A bathymetric grid of the basin was constructed based on US Army Corps of Engineers soundings in 1964 and 1965 before the construction of the small boat basin. The method of splitting tsunamis was used to estimate tsunami water heights and current velocities at several locations in the harbor using both the 1964?C1965 grid and the 2006 bathymetric grid for the 2006 Kuril event and a similar-sized source along the Sanriku coast of Japan. Model velocity outputs are compared for the two different bathymetries at the tide gauge location and at six additional computational sites in the harbor. The largest difference between the two grids is at the small boat basin entrance, where the 2006 bathymetry produces currents over three times the strength of the currents produced by the 1965 bathymetry. Peak currents from a Sanriku event are comparable to those produced by the 2006 event, and within the boat basin may have been higher. The modifications of the harbor, and in particular the addition of the small boat basin, appear to have contributed to the high current velocities and resulting damage in 2006 and help to explain why the 1933 M _w 8.4?C8.7 Sanriku tsunami caused no damage at Crescent City.     

Results from the Eso Large Program on Transneptunian Objects and Centaurs

BVRI photometry of 107 TNOs and Centaurs establishes the range of spectral gradients to be between –5 to 55%/100 nm (with one exception). A cluster of very red Cubewanos is firmly identified in orbits of low inclination and eccentricity beyond 40 AU from the Sun. Further correlations between surface colours and dynamical parameters (inclination and perihelion distance) are suggested for Cubewanos and scattered disk objects, but lack complete confidence for their reality. Plutinos and Centaurs do not show any clear correlation between surface colours and orbital parameters. We present in this paper 12 spectra obtained in the visible region and nine of them for which we obtained also near infrared spectra up to 2.4 microns. A few other objects have been observed, but the data are still under reduction and analysis. The principal reported results obtained are: (i) a wide range of visible slopes; (ii) evidence for surface variations on 2001 PT₁₃; and (iii) possible detection of few percent of water ice (1999 TC_36}, 2000 EB₁₇₃, 1999 DE₉, 2001 PT₁₃, 2000 QC₂₄₃, 1998 SG₃₅).     

Modeling the Ries‐Steinheim impact event and the formation of the moldavite strewn field

Abstract— Using detailed geological, petrographic, geochemical, and geographical constraints we have performed numerical modeling studies that relate the Steinheim crater (apparent diameter D_a = 3.8 km), the Ries crater (D_a = 24 km) in southern Germany, and the moldavite (tektite) strewn field in Bohemia and Moravia (Czech Republic), Lusatia (East Germany), and Lower Austria. The moldavite strewn field extends from ～200 to 450 km from the center of the Ries to the east‐northeast forming a fan with an angle of ～57°. An oblique impact of a binary asteroid from a west‐southwest direction appears to explain the locations of the craters and the formation and distribution of the moldavites. The impactor must have been a binary asteroid with two widely separated components (some 1.5 and 0.15 km in diameter, respectively). We carried out a series of three‐dimensional hydrocode simulations of a Ries‐type impact. The results confirm previous results suggesting that impacts around 30–50° (from the horizontal) are the most favorable angles for near‐surface melting, and, consequently for the formation of tektites. Finally, modeling of the motion of impact‐produced tektite particles through the atmosphere produces, in the downrange direction, a narrow‐angle distribution of the moldavites tektites in a fan like field with an angle of ～75°. An additional result of modeling the motion of melt inside and outside the crater is the preferred flow of melt from the main melt zone of the crystalline basement downrange towards the east‐northeast rim. This explains perfectly the occurrence of coherent impact melt bodies (some tens of meters in size) in a restricted zone of the downrange rim of the Ries crater. The origin of these melt bodies, which represent chemically a mixture of crystalline basement rocks similar to the main melt mass contained (as melt particles <0.5 m in size) in the suevite, do not occur at any other portion of the Ries crater rim and remained enigmatic until now. Although the calculated distribution of moldavites still deviates to some degree from the known distribution, our results represent an important step toward a better understanding of the origin and distribution of the high‐velocity surface melts and the low‐velocity, deep‐seated melt resulting from an oblique impact on a stratified target.     

Observations and Impacts from the 2010 Chilean and 2011 Japanese Tsunamis in California (USA)

The coast of California was significantly impacted by two recent teletsunami events, one originating off the coast of Chile on February 27, 2010 and the other off Japan on March 11, 2011. These tsunamis caused extensive inundation and damage along the coast of their respective source regions. For the 2010 tsunami, the NOAA West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center issued a state-wide Tsunami Advisory based on forecasted tsunami amplitudes ranging from 0.18 to 1.43 m with the highest amplitudes predicted for central and southern California. For the 2011 tsunami, a Tsunami Warning was issued north of Point Conception and a Tsunami Advisory south of that location, with forecasted amplitudes ranging from 0.3 to 2.5 m, the highest expected for Crescent City. Because both teletsunamis arrived during low tide, the potential for significant inundation of dry land was greatly reduced during both events. However, both events created rapid water-level fluctuations and strong currents within harbors and along beaches, causing extensive damage in a number of harbors and challenging emergency managers in coastal jurisdictions. Field personnel were deployed prior to each tsunami to observe and measure physical effects at the coast. Post-event survey teams and questionnaires were used to gather information from both a physical effects and emergency response perspective. During the 2010 tsunami, a maximum tsunami amplitude of 1.2 m was observed at Pismo Beach, and over $3-million worth of damage to boats and docks occurred in nearly a dozen harbors, most significantly in Santa Cruz, Ventura, Mission Bay, and northern Shelter Island in San Diego Bay. During the 2011 tsunami, the maximum amplitude was measured at 2.47 m in Crescent City Harbor with over $50-million in damage to two dozen harbors. Those most significantly affected were Crescent City, Noyo River, Santa Cruz, Moss Landing, and southern Shelter Island. During both events, people on docks and near the ocean became at risk to injury with one fatality occurring during the 2011 tsunami at the mouth of the Klamath River. Evaluations of maximum forecasted tsunami amplitudes indicate that the average percent error was 38 and 28 % for the 2010 and 2011 events, respectively. Due to these recent events, the California tsunami program is developing products that will help: (1) the maritime community better understand tsunami hazards within their harbors, as well as if and where boats should go offshore to be safe, and (2) emergency managers develop evacuation plans for relatively small “Warning” level events where extensive evacuation is not required. Because tsunami-induced currents were responsible for most of the damage in these two events, modeled current velocity estimates should be incorporated into future forecast products from the warning centers.     

Exosphere generation of the Moon investigated through a high-energy neutral detector

Observation of the lunar exosphere is a tool for remote sensing of the surface properties. The sources of this exosphere are related to the interactions of the lunar surface with the solar radiation, with the solar wind or Earth??s magnetospheric plasma, and with the interplanetary dust and meteorites. In fact, the exospheric particles are continuously created and subsequently lost in the interplanetary space, photo-ionized or re-adsorbed by the surface. Eventually, the estimation of the surface composition is not possible without the knowledge of the active release mechanisms. The relative weight of the different release processes of the various atoms, ions and molecules from the surface is still an open debate. Investigation of the Moon??s release processes and interaction with the near-Earth environment is of crucial importance for both determining the relative process release contribution and understanding the surface evolution of other airless bodies, like Mercury and the giant planets?? moons. In this work, an attempt to analyze the processes that take place on the surface of these small airless bodies, as a result of their exposure to the space environment, has been realized by means of the MonteCarlo Environment Simulation Tool (EST), applied to the Moon. The model results show that the different release processes can be identified by analysing the exospheric energy distribution. Finally, the instrument concept of the ??Analizzatore Lunare di ENA?? (ALENA), part of the MAGIA payload and specifically designed for detecting the high-energy particles released from the lunar surface is presented.     

The Canyon Diablo impact event: 2. Projectile fate and target melting upon impact

Abstract– Despite its centennial exploration history, there are still unresolved questions about Meteor Crater, the first recognized impact crater on Earth. This theoretical study addresses some of these questions by comparing model results with field and laboratory studies of Meteor Crater. Our results indicate that Meteor Crater was formed by a high‐velocity impact of a fragmented projectile, ruling out a highly dispersed swarm as well as a very low impact velocity. Projectile fragmentation caused many fragments to fall separately from the main body of the impactor, making up the bulk of the Canyon Diablo meteorites; most of these fragments were engulfed in the expansion plume as they approached the surface without suffering high shock compression, and were redistributed randomly around the crater. Thus, the distribution of Canyon Diablo meteorites is not representative of projectile trajectory, as is usual for impactor fragments in smaller strewn fields. At least 50% of the main impactor was ejected from the crater during crater excavation and was dispersed mostly downrange of the crater as molten particles (spheroids) and highly shocked solid fragments (shrapnel). When compared with the known distribution, model results suggest an impactor from the SW. Overall, every model case produced much higher amounts of pure projectile material than observed. The projectile‐target mixing was not considered in the models; however, this process could be the main sink of projectile melt, as all analyzed melt particles have high concentrations of projectile material. The fate of the solid projectile fragments is still not completely resolved. Model results suggest that the depth of melting in the target can reach the Coconino sandstone formation. However, most of the ejected melt originates from 30–40 m depth and, thus, is limited to Moenkopi and upper Kaibab material. Some melt remains in the target; based on the estimated volume of the breccia lens at Meteor Crater, our models suggest at most a 2% content of melt in the breccia. Finally, a high water table at the time of impact could have aided strong dispersion of target and projectile melt.     

Dielectric constant estimation of the uppermost Basal Unit layer in the martian Boreales Scopuli region

An electromagnetic inversion model has been applied to echoes from the subsurface sounding Shallow Radar (SHARAD) to retrieve the dielectric properties of the uppermost Basal Unit (BU) beneath the North Polar Layered Deposits of Mars. SHARAD data have been carefully selected to satisfy the assumption of the inversion model which requires a stratigraphy consisting of mostly plane parallel layers. The resulting values of the dielectric constant have been interpreted in terms of a variable percentage of dust in an ice–dust mixture through the use of a mixing model for dielectric properties. The resulting dust content exceeds 65%, reaching perhaps 95%, depending on the permittivity values assumed for the dust. Such a concentration is higher than that obtained by Selvans et al. (Selvans, M.M., Plaut, J.J., Aharonson, O. [2010]. J. Geophys. Res, 115, E09003). This discrepancy could be justified considering that our observations refer to the uppermost BU layer, whereas Selvans et al. (Selvans, M.M., Plaut, J.J., Aharonson, O. [2010]. J. Geophys. Res, 115, E09003) probed the BU full thickness. Moreover, if the BU is considered spatially inhomogeneous, with very different dust content and thickness (Tanaka, K.L., Skinner, J.A., Fortezzo, C.M., Herkenhoff, K.E., Rodriguez, J.A.P., Bourke, M.C., Kolb, E.J., Okubo, C.H. [2008]. Icarus, 196, 318–358), the discrepancy could be furtherly reconciled.