Performance of the ensemble Kalman filter outside of existing wells for a channelized reservoir

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) appears to give good results for matching production data at existing wells. However, the predictive power of these models outside of the existing wells is much more uncertain. In this paper, for a channelized reservoir for five different cases with different levels of information the production history is matched using the EnKF. The predictive power of the resulting model is tested for the existing wells and for new wells. The results show a consistent improvement for the predictions at the existing wells after assimilation of the production data, but not for prediction of production at new well locations. The latter depended on the settings of the problem and prior information used. The results also showed that the fit during the history match was not always a good predictor for predictive capabilities of the history match model. This suggests that some form of validation outside of observed wells is essential.     

Pollen analysis of faeces as a method of demonstrating seasonal variations in the diet of Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus)

Analysis of the pollen and spore content of 40 fresh samples of faeces collected from Svalbard reindeer during 1994/5 and 1996 shows variations among and within seasons, with distinct species/pollen types dominating each season. Winter samples were characterized by high amounts of Salix and moss spores , while spring samples contained decreasing amounts of the plants grazed in winter and increasing values of species grazed in summer, such as Oxyria digyna and Pedicualaris spp. Summer samples had a large quantity of pollen and a great number of pollen types. Autumn samples indicated that grasses are the most important forage species in this period. The seasonally varying proportions of pollen types are related to such factors as plant phenology, abudance, palatability and nutritional quality, as well as the prefereence of reindeers for grazing in low, wet areas in the summer but on higher, wind-blown ridges during the winter. The results mostly confrim other studies of Svalbard reindeer diet and grazing behaviour. The advantages and limitations of the pollen analysis method for such investigations are discussed.     

Cold-season soil respiration in response to grazing and warming in High-Arctic Svalbard

The influence of goose grazing intensity and open-topped chambers (OTCs) on near-surface quantities and qualities of soil organic carbon (SOC) was evaluated in wet and mesic ecosystems in Svalbard. This study followed up a field experiment carried out in 2003–05 (part of the project Fragility of Arctic Goose Habitat: Impacts of Land Use, Conservation and Elevated Temperatures). New measurements of soil CO₂ effluxes, temperatures and water contents were regularly made from July to November 2007. SOC stocks were quantified, and the reactivity and composition measured by basal soil respiration (BSR) and solid-state ¹³C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. Results reveal variations in soil carbon cycling, with significant seasonal trends controlled by temperature, water content and snow. Experimental warming (OTCs) increased near-surface temperatures in the growing season, resulting in significantly higher CO₂ effluxes. Different grazing intensities had no significant effects on observed soil respiration, but BSR rates at the mesic site (13–23 µg CO₂ g soil-C⁻¹ h⁻¹) were highest with moderate grazing and lowest in the absence of grazing. A limited effect of grazing on microbial respiration is consistent with a lack of significant differences in SOC quantity and quality. NMR data show that the composition of A-horizon SOC is dominated by O-N-alkyl C and alkyl C groups, and less by carboxyl C and aromatic C groups: but again no marked variation in response to grazing was evident. It can be concluded that two years after a goose grazing experiment, SOC cycling was less than the natural variation within contrasting vegetation types.     

Monte Carlo method applied to modeling copper transport in river sediments

Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) methodology has been applied to explain the variability of parameters for pollutant transport and fate modeling. In this study, the MCS method was used to evaluate the transport and fate of copper in the sediment of the Tibagi River sub-basin tributaries, Southern Brazil. The statistical distribution of the variables was described by a dataset obtained for copper concentration using sequential extraction, organic matter (OM) amount, and pH. The proposed stochastic spatial model for the copper transport in the river sediment was discussed and implemented by the MCS technique using the MatLab 7.3? mathematical software tool. In order to test some hypotheses, the sediment and the water column in the river ecosystem were considered as compartments. The proposed stochastic spatial model makes it possible to predict copper mobility and associated risks as a function of the organic matter input into aquatic systems. The metal mobility can increase with the OM posing a rising environmental risk.     

Human impact and soil erosion during the last 5000 yrs as recorded in lacustrine sedimentary organic matter at Lac d'Annecy, the French Alps

Sedimentary organic matter has been systematically studied in an eight-metre long core from the centre of the Petit Lac (Annecy, French Alps). The palynofacies composition identifies different terrestrial organic sources including forest floors, soil-horizons and geological substratum. The amount of recycled organic matter derived from the geological substratum is estimated and subtracted from the other contributions from the catchment area. The palynological record indicates that the relative variations in organic sources are directly dependent on human land-use. From ca. 5000 to 1700 BP, the human impact on soil cohesion is very low and organic matter is mainly exported from the surficial forest floor. The Roman invasion (ca. 1700 BP) marks the most important ecological and hydrological change. From 1700 to 900 BP, the clearing of forests released deeper-soil components. This trend is increased after 900 BP with agriculture intensification, which resulted in a higher sedimentation rate. In all the periods, extreme events such as flood or intensive run-off are characterised by notable increases of organic matter from surface (5000 to 1700 BP) and deep (1700 BP to now) soils.     

The magnetic fabric of some dolerite intrusions,northeast Spitsbergen; implications for their mode of emplacement

The titanomagnetite fabric of some dolerites from two areas of northeast Spitsbergen, Lomfjorden and the Bastian, and Rønnbeck islands have been studied by means of magnetic susceptibility anisotropy measurements. The shape and orientation of the susceptibility ellipsoids were determined with an a.c. bridge. Both areas showed a dominating magnetic foliation in the horizontal plane. A weakly developed preferred orientation of the maximum (K^I) and intermediate (K^II) susceptibility axis within the magnetic foliation plane was found, the K^I-axis striking predominantly E-W and the K^II-axis striking N-S. The magnetic fabric is interpreted as resulting from horizontal movement of magma. It is concluded that the Bastian and Rønnbeck islands are the relics of one or more larger sills.