Analysis of tsunami impact scenarios at an oil refinery

This work analyses the potential consequences of two tsunami scenarios and their impacts on an oil refinery located in Sicily. Two credible tsunamis originating in the Tyrrhenian Sea were selected based on historical data. The potential for damage and hazardous materials releases resulting from the tsunami impacts to a refinery was assessed. The results obtained by the JRC tsunami propagation and inundation code HyFlux2 indicate that in both scenarios there would be eighteen storage tanks (of 43 located within 400 m from the shoreline) at the refinery subject to flooding. Water flow velocities were found to be generally low, <1 m/s, except for a central section of the refinery near the shoreline where the water flow velocities reach 3?C4 m/s. These results indicate that any damage would most likely occur due to buoyancy loads particularly in the western part of the facility where inundation levels are higher and storage tanks are less protected. Potential damage caused by impact of floating debris may be a problem in the central area of the refinery near the shoreline due to high flow velocities (3?C4 m/s) in both tsunami scenarios. Small hazardous materials releases could occur due to breakage of connected pipes and flanges caused by floating off of almost empty storage tanks or other equipment. Salt water intrusion could affect electrical equipment, such as control panels, pumps, and motors that are not raised above the inundation level. We conclude that in the two tsunami scenarios analysed, the risk to nearby residents and neighbouring facilities from potential hazardous materials releases, fires or explosions triggered by the tsunamis is likely to be small. Nonetheless, recommendations are made on prevention measures to reduce the risk of tsunami-triggered accidents and to mitigate their consequences if they do occur. The results of this study are limited by the uncertainty in the input data and most importantly by the accuracy of the elevation data and the model resolution.     

Reconstructing the Palaeoclimate of Jæren, Southwestern Norway, for the Period 1821–1850, from Historical Documentary Records

Documentary data provide long time series and sometimes high-resolution, detailed data from historical times to the present and can give valuable information about palaeoclimate, and for the prediction of future climates. In this paper, documentary data containing qualitative information on climate, in the form of a diary written by the farmer I.G. Grude, and two newspapers, were used for the reconstruction of the palaeoclimate at Jæren, in the county of Rogaland, in southwestern Norway, during the period 1821–50. An index method to quantify the qualitative climate data was developed and used for a low-resolution reconstruction of winter, summer and annual temperatures. A high-resolution climate reconstruction of temperature and precipitation for the winter of 1837/38 is also presented, making use of a method that keeps the climate data in a qualitative form. The climate reconstructions are compared to an instrumental temperature series from Bergen, for the same period. The two data sets are in good agreement except for summer temperature (annual temperature: r = 0.75, winter temperature: r = 0.77, summer temperature: r = 0.44). Compared to average temperatures during 1961–90, the instrumental data from Bergen during the 1821–50 period show slightly different temperatures: annual average was 0.3°C lower, winter 0.4°C lower, and summer 0.1°C lower than at present, implying conditions consistent with the "Little Ice Age" climate.     

Leisure and community assessments: Emotional place relations among young teenagers in a Norwegian industrial stronghold

ABSTRACT

The purpose of the article is to explore the role of participation in organized leisure activities in young teenagers’ emotional place relations. Data from a survey of students in lower secondary schools were analysed using multivariate linear regression models to address the research questions concerning whether participation in organized leisure activities was associated with more positive community assessments in youths in line with early Nordic welfare theory and the role played by socio-economic hardships and gender in the association. The results showed that for boys there were no indications of a general positive association between participation in organized leisure activities and community assessments, while for girls the association was modest. Students who experienced socio-economic hardships had more negative assessments of community compared with well-off students, even when they participated in organized leisure activities. The author discusses the results according to a welfare theory approach to emotional place relations, supplemented by other theoretical perspectives. From a theoretical perspective, the findings point to social exclusion and inclusion dynamics instead of early Nordic welfare theory approaches to leisure participation. The author concludes that gender, class and school relations are strongly associated with young teenagers’ emotional place relations.     

Influence of Climate Change on Winter Wheat Growth in North China During 1950-2000

1. IntroductionChinese agriculture has undergone tremendousstructural changes over the last decades. The averagestaple crop productivity has doubled in 25 yr while thepopulation increased by 25 % [China Statistical Year-book (CSY), 2003]. Winter wheat is one of China'smost important staple food crops, with a total farm-ing area of nearly 24 million hectares and a produc-tion exceeding 92 million ton in 2002 (CSY, 2003).Although China has been the world's largest wheatproducer since 1983 (…     

Land use/cover changes in the war-ravaged Jaffna Peninsula, Sri Lanka, 1984–early 2004

Temporal and spatial information on land use/cover is a prerequisite for effective planning decisions in the context of social and economic development. Satellite remote sensing data have become increasingly important in the study of land use/cover changes. This paper uses multitemporal satellite data to measure and spatially characterize land use/cover changes in the Jaffna Peninsula, northern Sri Lanka over the two decades from 1984 to early 2004 in terms of potential drivers. Over this period, the Jaffna Peninsula has been impacted severely by armed conflict between the government of Sri Lanka and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. A postclassification method is used to compare land use/cover classes from satellite images using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) to analyze the spatial pattern of land use/cover changes over the study period. Results indicate that the land use/cover pattern has been very dynamic since early the 1980s, showing a remarkable decrease in agricultural land use and concomitant increase in non-agricultural land uses. The ethnic conflict and its consequences, particularly large-scale population migrations, have been the main driving forces for such land use/cover changes in the Jaffna Peninsula. The results of this study are not only important in aiding efforts to reconstruct this area after decades of physical and socioeconomic devastation, but should also prompt similarly urgent studies in other inaccessible war-torn areas of the world.     

A comparison between subaerial and submarine eruptions at Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii: implications for the thermal viability of lateral feeder dikes

Eruption styles on the subaerial East Rift Zone (ERZ) of Kilauea volcano are reviewed and a classification scheme for the different types of eruption is proposed. The various eruption types are produced by differing thermal and driving pressure behaviour in the feeder dikes. Existing evidence is reviewed and new evidence presented of the types and volumes of eruptions on the Puna Ridge, which is the submarine extension of the ERZ. Eruptions on the Puna Ridge fall into the same five classes as, and are of comparable volume to, those on the subaerial ERZ. Evidence is presented which suggests that feeder dikes for Puna Ridge eruptions are more thermally viable than those feeding subaerial eruptions, and this difference causes long-lived, large-volume eruptions to be more common on the Puna Ridge than on the subaerial ERZ. This systematic variation in thermal viability may be due to increased dike width for Puna Ridge dikes or increased pressure gradients driving magma flow. Lateral dike emplacement is common to many basaltic systems including on other Hawaiian volcanoes, in Iceland and at mid-ocean ridges. The systematic trend inferred for the ERZ of Kilauea implies that in the other systems large-volume eruptions may also be more common at great distances than they are close to the magma centre.     

Water table variations in Atacama Desert alluvial fans: discussion of “Evidence of short-term groundwater recharge signal propagation from the Andes to the central Atacama Desert: a singular spectrum analysis approach”*

ABSTRACT

Using a statistical approach, Scheihing attempts to demonstrate the direct influence of recharge events in the Precordillera and the Andean Piedmont on water table variations in downstream alluvial fans. The author “unquestionably” discards the existence of ephemeral recharge processes in alluvial fans although they are frequently impacted by major floods. However, the author does not consider previous publications about recharge processes in arid alluvial fans, the hydraulic setting of the Pampa del Tamarugal Aquifer (PTA) and anthropogenic pressure changes in the PTA. Because the sustainable management of groundwater resources in drylands depends on a good understanding of hydrogeological processes, we propose a thorough reinterpretation of the short- and long-term PTA water table variations addressed by the author. In this comment, we illustrate the limits of the sole use of a statistical approach for characterizing both recharge processes and factors controlling the water table variations in the Atacama Desert.     

Towards a multi-scale approach for an Earth observation-based assessment of natural resource exploitation in conflict regions

The exploitation of resources, if not properly managed, can lead to spoiling natural habitats as well as to threatening people’s health, livelihoods and security. The paper discusses a multi-scale Earth observation-based approach to provide independent information related to exploitation activities of natural resources for countries which are experiencing armed conflict. The analyses are based on medium to very high spatial resolution optical satellite data. Object-based image analysis is used for information extraction at these different scales. On a subnational level, conflict-related land cover changes as an indication of potential hot spots for exploitation activities are classified. The regional assessment provides information about potential activity areas of resource exploitation, whereas on a local scale, a site-specific assessment of exploitation areas is performed. The study demonstrates the potential of remote sensing for supporting the monitoring and documentation of natural resource exploitation in conflict regions.