Fluid Geochemistry as Indicator of Tectonically-Related,Deep Water Circulations in the Sardinian Rift-Campidano Graben (Italy): New Insights from Environmental Isotopes

The EC funded Geochemical Seismic Zonation program (EEC GSZ Project 1996–1998) chose Sardinia as a low-seismicity site, in which the relationships between fluid geochemistry and seismo-tectonics had to be investigated and results compared with outcomes from other selected high-seismicity sites. A first article, examining the role of fault segmentation and seismic quiescence on the geochemical composition of groundwaters and gases, has already been presented (Angelone et al. 2005). This article deals with environmental isotopes which, together with selected hydrochemical data, give hints on tectonically-related fluid circulations. Four water-dominated hydrothermal systems were considered, all located along regional fault systems and discharging groundwaters belonging to the Na–HCO₃ and Na–Cl facies. In the considered systems, groundwater circulation takes place, principally, in the Palaeozoic Crystalline Basement (PCB), with the exception of the Logudoro system, where hydrological circuits develop in the Mesozoic Carbonate Platform (MCP). The high CO₂ contents, the non-attainment of fluid-rock equilibrium and the large lithological variability prevent the construction of a unique hydrogeological–geochemical conceptual model. In this case, stable isotopes provide a useful tool to describe the origin of fluids and their subterranean movements. Stable isotopes of water, integrated with hydrochemical data, indicate that fluids are derived from three main end members. The dominant component is a relatively recent local meteoric water; the second one is marine water; and the third one is a fossil freshwater, depleted in heavy isotopes with respect to modern rains. The latter end member entered the aquifer system in the past, when climatic conditions were greatly different from today. At least two circulation systems can be recognised, namely a shallow cold system and a deep hydrothermal system, as well as two distinct hydrological processes: (1) gravity-controlled descent of cold water towards greater depths and (2) convection linked to a thermal gradient, causing deep fluids to rise up from the hydrothermal reservoir towards the surface. The highly variable δ¹³C_TDIC values suggest the presence of two distinct CO₂ sources, namely, a biogenic one and a thermogenic one. The relation between the isotopic compositions of CO₂ and He indicates an increased mantle signature in uprising CO₂-rich fluids.     

Engineering geological data in support of municipal land use planning—a case study in Analandia, southeast Brazil

This paper presents a method for transforming the information of an engineering geological map into useful information for non-specialists involved in land-use planning. The method consists of classifying the engineering geological units in terms of land use capability and identifying the legal and the geologic restrictions that apply in the study area. Both informations are then superimposed over the land use and a conflict areas map is created. The analysis of these data leads to the identification of existing and forthcoming land use conflicts and enables the proposal of planning measures on a regional and local scale. The map for the regional planning was compiled at a 1:50,000 scale and encompasses the whole municipal land area where uses are mainly rural. The map for the local planning was compiled at a 1:10,000 scale and encompasses the urban area. Most of the classification and operations on maps used spatial analyst tools available in the Geographical Information System. The regional studies showed that the greater part of Analandia’s territory presents appropriate land uses. The local-scale studies indicate that the majority of the densely occupied urban areas are in suitable land. Although the situation is in general positive, municipal policies should address the identified and expected land use conflicts, so that it can be further improved.     

Nonlinear response estimates of RC frames using linear analysis of SDOF systems

An approximate‐simple method for nonlinear response estimates of reinforced concrete frames subjected to near‐field and far‐field records is presented in this paper. The approximate method is based on equivalent single‐degree‐of‐freedom and linear multi‐degree‐of‐freedom models. In this procedure, the nonlinear maximum roof displacement is estimated using an effective period factor and elastic response spectrum with an equivalent damping. The effective period factor was proposed for far‐field and near‐field ground motion records. For regions of high seismicity, the maximum roof displacement can be estimated by applying an effective period factor of 2.3 and 2.1 for near‐field and far‐field records, respectively, and 9% damped displacement response spectrum. For regions of moderate seismicity, a lower effective period factor of 1.9 and 1.8, for near‐field and far‐field records, respectively, can be applied to estimate the maximum roof displacement. A relationship between linear and nonlinear response of multi‐degree‐of‐freedom systems was also proposed to obtain estimates of the maximum inter‐story drift of nonlinear responding reinforced concrete frames. In addition, the effects of number of ground motion records used in the analyses on the scatters of results were investigated. The required number of ground motions to produce a reliable response was proposed. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Prediction of river water temperature: a comparison between a new family of hybrid models and statistical approaches

River water temperature is a key physical variable controlling several chemical, biological and ecological processes. Its reliable prediction is a main issue in many environmental applications, which however is hampered by data scarcity, when using data‐demanding deterministic models, and modelling limitations, when using simpler statistical models. In this work we test a suite of models belonging to air2stream family, which are characterized by a hybrid formulation that combines a physical derivation of the key equation with a stochastic calibration of parameters. The air2stream models rely solely on air temperature and streamflow, and are of similar complexity as standard statistical models. The performances of the different versions of air2stream in predicting river water temperature are compared with those of the most common statistical models typically used in the literature. To this aim, a dataset of 38 Swiss rivers is used, which includes rivers classified into four different categories according to their hydrological characteristics: low‐land natural rivers, lake outlets, snow‐fed rivers and regulated rivers. The results of the analysis provide practical indications regarding the type of model that is most suitable to simulate river water temperature across different time scales (from daily to seasonal) and for different hydrological regimes. A model intercomparison exercise suggests that the family of air2stream hybrid models generally outperforms statistical models, while cross‐validation conducted over a 30‐year period indicates that they can be suitably adopted for long‐term analyses. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Large Earthquakes at the Ibero-Maghrebian Region: Basis for an EEWS

Large earthquakes (M_w > 6, I_max > VIII) occur at the Ibero-Maghrebian region, extending from a point (12ºW) southwest of Cape St. Vincent to Tunisia, with different characteristics depending on their location, which cause considerable damage and casualties. Seismic activity at this region is associated with the boundary between the lithospheric plates of Eurasia and Africa, which extends from the Azores Islands to Tunisia. The boundary at Cape St. Vincent, which has a clear oceanic nature in the westernmost part, experiences a transition from an oceanic to a continental boundary, with the interaction of the southern border of the Iberian Peninsula, the northern border of Africa, and the Alboran basin between them, corresponding to a wide area of deformation. Further to the east, the plate boundary recovers its oceanic nature following the northern coast of Algeria and Tunisia. The region has been divided into four zones with different seismic characteristics. From west to east, large earthquake occurrence, focal depth, total seismic moment tensor, and average seismic slip velocities for each zone along the region show the differences in seismic release of deformation. This must be taken into account in developing an EEWS for the region.     

The impact of climate change on extreme precipitation in Sicily,Italy

Increasing precipitation extremes are one of the possible consequences of a warmer climate. These may exceed the capacity of urban drainage systems, and thus impact the urban environment. Because short‐duration precipitation events are primarily responsible for flooding in urban systems, it is important to assess the response of extreme precipitation at hourly (or sub‐hourly) scales to a warming climate. This study aims to evaluate the projected changes in extreme rainfall events across the region of Sicily (Italy) and, for two urban areas, to assess possible changes in Depth‐Duration‐Frequency (DDF) curves. We used Regional Climate Model outputs from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for Europe area ensemble simulations at a ~12 km spatial resolution, for the current period and 2 future horizons under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario. Extreme events at the daily scale were first investigated by comparing the quantiles estimated from rain gauge observations and Regional Climate Model outputs. Second, we implemented a temporal downscaling approach to estimate rainfall for sub‐daily durations from the modelled daily precipitation, and, lastly, we analysed future projections at daily and sub‐daily scales. A frequency distribution was fitted to annual maxima time series for the sub‐daily durations to derive the DDF curves for 2 future time horizons and the 2 urban areas. The overall results showed a raising of the growth curves for the future horizons, indicating an increase in the intensity of extreme precipitation, especially for the shortest durations. The DDF curves highlight a general increase of extreme quantiles for the 2 urban areas, thus underlining the risk of failure of the existing urban drainage systems under more severe events.     

What Can be Expected from the GRACE-FO Laser Ranging Interferometer for Earth Science Applications?

The primary objective of the gravity recovery and climate experiment follow-on (GRACE-FO) satellite mission, due for launch in August 2017, is to continue the GRACE time series of global monthly gravity field models. For this, evolved versions of the GRACE microwave instrument, GPS receiver, and accelerometer will be used. A secondary objective is to demonstrate the effectiveness of a laser ranging interferometer (LRI) in improving the satellite-to-satellite tracking measurement performance. In order to investigate the expected enhancement for Earth science applications, we have performed a full-scale simulation over the nominal mission lifetime of 5 years using a realistic orbit scenario and error assumptions both for instrument and background model errors. Unfiltered differences between the synthetic input and the finally recovered time-variable monthly gravity models show notable improvements with the LRI, on a global scale, of the order of 23 %. The gain is realized for wavelengths smaller than 240 km in case of Gaussian filtering but decreases to just a few percent when anisotropic filtering is applied. This is also confirmed for some typical regional Earth science applications which show randomly distributed patterns of small improvements but also degradations when using DDK4-filtered LRI-based models. Analysis of applied error models indicates that accelerometer noise followed by ocean tide and non-tidal mass variation errors are the main contributors to the overall GRACE-FO gravity model error. Improvements in these fields are therefore necessary, besides optimized constellations, to make use of the increased LRI accuracy and to significantly improve gravity field models from next-generation gravity missions.