EOF analysis of a time series with application to tsunami detection

Fragments of deep-ocean tidal records up to 3 days long belong to the same functional sub-space, regardless of the record’s origin. The tidal sub-space basis can be derived via Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of a tidal record of a single buoy. Decomposition of a tsunami buoy record in a functional space of tidal EOFs presents an efficient tool for a short-term tidal forecast, as well as for an accurate tidal removal needed for early tsunami detection and quantification [Tolkova, E., 2009. Principal component analysis of tsunami buoy record: tide prediction and removal. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans 46 (1–4), 62–82] EOF analysis of a time series, however, assumes that the time series represents a stationary (in the weak sense) process. In the present work, a modification of one-dimensional EOF formalism not restricted to stationary processes is introduced. With this modification, the EOF-based de-tiding/forecasting technique can be interpreted in terms of a signal passage through a filter bank, which is unique for the sub-space spanned by the EOFs. This interpretation helps to identify a harmonic content of a continuous process whose fragments are decomposed by given EOFs. In particular, seven EOFs and a constant function are proved to decompose 1-day-long tidal fragments at any location. Filtering by projection into a reduced sub-space of the above EOFs is capable of isolating a tsunami wave within a few millimeter accuracy from the first minutes of the tsunami appearance on a tsunami buoy record, and is reliable in the presence of data gaps. EOFs with ∼$\sim$3-day duration (a reciprocal of either tidal band width) allow short-term (24.75 h in advance) tidal predictions using the inherent structure of a tidal signal. The predictions do not require any a priori knowledge of tidal processes at a particular location, except for recent 49.5 h long recordings at the location.     

Petrological and experimental evidence for differentiation of water-rich magmas beneath St. Kitts,Lesser Antilles

St. Kitts lies in the northern Lesser Antilles, a subduction-related intraoceanic volcanic arc known for its magmatic diversity and unusually abundant cognate xenoliths. We combine the geochemistry of xenoliths, melt inclusions and lavas with high pressure–temperature experiments to explore magma differentiation processes beneath St. Kitts. Lavas range from basalt to rhyolite, with predominant andesites and basaltic andesites. Xenoliths, dominated by calcic plagioclase and amphibole, typically in reaction relationship with pyroxenes and olivine, can be divided into plutonic and cumulate varieties based on mineral textures and compositions. Cumulate varieties, formed primarily by the accumulation of liquidus phases, comprise ensembles that represent instantaneous solid compositions from one or more magma batches; plutonic varieties have mineralogy and textures consistent with protracted solidification of magmatic mush. Mineral chemistry in lavas and xenoliths is subtly different. For example, plagioclase with unusually high anorthite content (An_≤100) occurs in some plutonic xenoliths, whereas the most calcic plagioclase in cumulate xenoliths and lavas are An₉₇ and An₉₅, respectively. Fluid-saturated, equilibrium crystallisation experiments were performed on a St. Kitts basaltic andesite, with three different fluid compositions (XH₂O = 1.0, 0.66 and 0.33) at 2.4 kbar, 950–1025 °C, and fO₂ = NNO ? 0.6 to NNO + 1.2 log units. Experiments reproduce lava liquid lines of descent and many xenolith assemblages, but fail to match xenolith and lava phenocryst mineral compositions, notably the very An-rich plagioclase. The strong positive correlation between experimentally determined plagioclase-melt Kd_Ca–Na and dissolved H₂O in the melt, together with the occurrence of Al-rich mafic lavas, suggests that parental magmas were water-rich (> 9 wt% H₂O) basaltic andesites that crystallised over a wide pressure range (1.5–6 kbar). Comparison of experimental and natural (lava, xenolith) mafic mineral composition reveals that whereas olivine in lavas is predominantly primocrysts precipitated at low-pressure, pyroxenes and spinel are predominantly xenocrysts formed by disaggregation of plutonic mushes. Overall, St. Kitts xenoliths and lavas testify to mid-crustal differentiation of low-MgO basalt and basaltic andesite magmas within a trans-crustal, magmatic mush system. Lower crustal ultramafic cumulates that relate parental low-MgO basalts to primary, mantle -derived melts are absent on St. Kitts.     

Grain boundary and volume diffusion experiments in yttrium aluminium garnet bicrystals at 1,723 K: a miniaturized study

Yb-Y inter-diffusion along a single grain boundary of a synthetic yttrium aluminium garnet (YAG) bicrystal has been studied using analytical transmission electron microscopy (ATEM). To investigate the diffusion, a thin-film containing Yb as the diffusant was deposited perpendicular to the bicrystal grain boundary by pulsed laser deposition (PLD). Structural properties and their change with time in both the diffusant source and the grain boundary are reported. The diffusion profiles are incorporated in a numerical diffusion model, which is applied to determine the grain boundary diffusion coefficient, D _gb , at 1.723 K it is equal to 3 × 10⁻¹⁵ m²/s. We find that grain boundary diffusion is 4.85 orders of magnitude faster than volume diffusion, which was determined from the same diffusion experiment. This result is discussed in the context of special versus general grain boundaries. Finally, we successfully tested the capability of synchrotron-based nano-X-ray fluorescence analysis to map micro-chemical patterns in two dimensions with sub-micrometre resolution.     

The characteristic pattern of multiple colored layers in coastal stratified lakes in the process of separation from the White Sea

An unusual feature of the saline stratified lakes that were formed due to ongoing postglacial uplift on the White Sea coast is the presence of several differently colored thin layers in the zone with sharp gradients. Colored layers in five lakes at various stages of separation from the sea were investigated using optical microscopy, spectrophotometry, spectrofluorimetry, and photobiology. The upper greenish colored layer located in the aerobic strata of all lakes near the compensation depth of 1% light penetration contains green algae. In the chemocline, another layer, brightly green, red or pink, is dominated by mixotrophic flagellates. Despite the very low light intensities and the presence of H 2 S, active photosynthesis by these algae appears to be occurring, as indicated by high values of the maximum quantum yield of primary photochemistry, electron transport activity, photosynthetic activity of photosystem II, the fraction of active centers, and low values of heat dissipation. In the reduced zone of the chemocline, a dense green or brown suspension of anoxygenic phototrophs(green sulfur bacteria) is located.     

Seep mounds on the Southern Vøring Plateau (offshore Norway)

Multidisciplinary study of seep-related structures on Southern Vøring Plateau has been performed during several UNESCO/IOC TTR cruises on R/V Professor Logachev. High-resolution sidescan sonar and subbottom profiler data suggest that most of the studied fluid discharge structures have a positive relief at their central part surrounded by depression. Our data shows that the present day fluid activity is concentrated on the top of these “seep mounds”. Number of high hydrocarbon (HC) gas saturated sediment cores and 5 cores with gas hydrate presence have been recovered from these structures. δ¹³C of methane (between −68 and −94.6‰ VPDB) and dry composition of the gas points to its biogenic origin. The sulfate depletion generally occurs within the upper 30–200 cm bsf and usually coincides with an increase of methane concentration. Pore water δ¹⁸O ranges from 0.29 to 1.14‰ showing an overall gradual increase from bottom water values (δ¹⁸O ∼ 0.35‰). Although no obvious evidence of fluid seepage was observed during the TV surveys, coring data revealed a broad distribution of living Pogonophora and bacterial colonies on sea bottom inside seep structures. These evidences point to ongoing fluid activity (continuous seepage of methane) through these structures. From other side, considerable number and variety of chemosynthetic macro fauna with complete absence of living species suggest that present day level of fluid activity is significantly lower than it was in past. Dead and subfossil fauna recovered from various seep sites consist of solemyid (Acharax sp.), thyasirid and vesicomyid (cf. Calyptogena sp.) bivalves belonging to chemosymbiotic families. Significant variations in δ¹³C (−31.6‰ to −59.2‰) and δ¹⁸O (0.42‰ and 6.4‰) of methane-derived carbonates collected from these structures most probably related to changes in gas composition and bottom water temperature between periods of their precipitation. This led us to ideas that: (1) seep activity on the Southern Vøring Plateau was started with large input of the deep thermogenic gas and gradually decries in time with increasing of biogenic constituent; (2) authigenic carbonate precipitation started at the near normal deep sea environments with bottom water temperature around +5 °C and continues with gradual cooling up to negative temperatures recording at present time.     

A Statistical Upscaling Workflow for Warm Solvent Injection Processes for Heterogeneous Heavy Oil Reservoirs

Natural Resources Research - Hybrid solvent- and thermal-based methods offer an important potential for reducing the environmental impact and enhancing recoveries in heavy oil production processes....     

Paleolithic archeology and the paleogeographical study of loess-paleosol sequences in Eastern Europe

The paper is concerned with problems of the study of Paleolithic sites in the loess regions of the Russian Plain. It is of great significance to correlate prehistorical settlement with Upper Pleistocene cycles of loess and soil formation — not solely in the reconstruction of paleoenvironments. From the cultural layers at various sites paleontological finds and objects were collected for radiocarbon dating. A complex analysis of archeological objects embedded in the loess-paleosol sequence helps us date Upper Pleistocene loess formation cycles. The data acquired from the investigation of the lithological properties of loess and their modification through time and their dependence on relief characteristics permitted a correlation between the various paleoenvironments and the dust accumulation cycles, which played a decisive role in the selection of the most habitable sites.     

Does salinity change determine zooplankton variability in the saline Qarun Lake(Egypt)?

Zooplankton and 14 abiotic variables were studied during August 2011 at 10 stations in Lake Qarun,Egypt.Stations with the lowest salinity and highest nutrient concentrations and turbidity were close to the discharge of waters from the El-Bats and El-Wadi drainage systems.A total of 15 holozooplankton species were identified.The salinity in Lake Qarun increased and fluctuated since 1901:12 g/L in 1901;8.5 g/L in 1905;12.0 g/L in 1922;30.0 g/L in 1985;38.7 g/L in 1994;35.3 g/L in 2006,and 33.4 g/L in 2011.The mean concentration of nutrients(nitrate,nitrite and orthophosphate) gradually increased from 35,0.16 and 0.38 ? g/L,respectively,in 1953–1955 to 113,16.4,and 30.26 ? g/L in 2011.From 1999–2003 some decrease of species diversity occurred.Average total zooplankton density was 30 000 ind./m 3 in 1974–1977;356 125 ind./m 3 in 1989;534 000 ind./m 3 in 1994–1995;from 965 000 to 1 452 000 ind./m 3 in 2006,and 595 000 ind./m 3 in 2011.A range of long-term summer salinity variability during the last decades was very similar to a range of salinity spatial variability in summer 2011.There is no significant correlation between zooplankton abundance and salinity in spatial and long-term changes.We conclude that salinity fluctuations since at least 1955 did not directly drive the changes of composition and abundance of zooplankton in the lake.A marine community had formed in the lake,and it continues to change.One of the main drivers of this change is a regular introduction and a pressure of alien species on the existent community.Eutrophication also plays an important role.The introduction of Mnemiopsis leidyi,first reported in 2014,may lead to a start of a new stage of the biotic changes in Lake Qarun,when eutrophication and the population dynamics of this ctenophore will be main drivers of the ecosystem change.     

Impact of model complexity and multi-scale data integration on the estimation of hydrogeological parameters in a dual-porosity aquifer

This study investigates the impact of model complexity and multi-scale prior hydrogeological data on the interpretation of pumping test data in a dual-porosity aquifer (the Chalk aquifer in England, UK). In order to characterize the hydrogeological properties, different approaches ranging from a traditional analytical solution (Theis approach) to more sophisticated numerical models with automatically calibrated input parameters are applied. Comparisons of results from the different approaches show that neither traditional analytical solutions nor a numerical model assuming a homogenous and isotropic aquifer can adequately explain the observed drawdowns. A better reproduction of the observed drawdowns in all seven monitoring locations is instead achieved when medium and local-scale prior information about the vertical hydraulic conductivity (K) distribution is used to constrain the model calibration process. In particular, the integration of medium-scale vertical K variations based on flowmeter measurements lead to an improvement in the goodness-of-fit of the simulated drawdowns of about 30%. Further improvements (up to 70%) were observed when a simple upscaling approach was used to integrate small-scale K data to constrain the automatic calibration process of the numerical model. Although the analysis focuses on a specific case study, these results provide insights about the representativeness of the estimates of hydrogeological properties based on different interpretations of pumping test data, and promote the integration of multi-scale data for the characterization of heterogeneous aquifers in complex hydrogeological settings.     

Modelling the interseismic deformation of a thrust system: seismogenic potential of the Southern Alps

This article focuses on the Montello thrust system in the Eastern Southern Alps as a potential seismogenic source. This system is of particular interest because of its lack of historical seismicity. Nevertheless, the system is undergoing active deformation. We developed a finite‐element model using visco‐elasto‐plastic rheology. The free parameters of the model (essentially, the locking status of the three thrusts included in the study), were constrained by matching the observed horizontal GPS and vertical levelling data. We show that the amount of interseismic fault locking, and thus the seismic potential, is not necessarily associated with the fastest‐slipping faults. More specifically, the locked Bassano thrust has a greater seismic potential than the freely slipping Montello thrust. The findings suggest that faults with subtle evidence of Quaternary activity should be carefully considered when creating seismic hazard maps.