Smithsonian Institution's Global Volcanism Network

Information included in this summary is based on more detailed reports published in the Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network, vol. 30, no. 3, March 2005 (on the Internet at ). Edited by scientists at the Smithsonian, this Bulletin includes reports provided by a worldwide network of correspondents. The reports contain the names and contact information for all sources. Please note that these reports are preliminary and subject to change as events are studied in more detail. The Global Volcanism Program welcomes further reports of current volcanism, seismic unrest, monitoring data, and field observations.     

B-Spline impulse response functions (BIRF) for transient SSI analysis of rigid foundations

This work presents a simplified, yet accurate model of rigid foundation-soil systems for the dynamic analysis of structures including SSI effects. The simplified model is based on closed form solutions that reproduce the characteristic B-spline impulse response functions (BIRF) of 3D continuous soil-foundation systems, as obtained from rigorous boundary element method (BEM) analysis. The proposed simplified model is used within the framework of B-spline impulse response techniques and can be coupled directly to other solution techniques, such as the finite element method (FEM). Validation and application studies demonstrate the accuracy and versatility of the simplified model for the direct time domain solution of dynamic SSI problems involving rigid square surface foundations of any size. The proposed model, although simplified, demonstrates similar high accuracy to that of more rigorous solutions based on domain discretizations.     

Red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle) reproduction and seedling colonization after hurricane charley: Comparisons of Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay

Reproductive aspects of life history are known to be important in recovery following disturbance in many plant species although this has not been well studied in mangroves. Hurricane Charley devastated large areas of mangroves in Charlotte Harbor, Florida, in August 2004. We surveyed 6 forests in Charlotte Harbor (2002, 2003, and 2005) and 16 in Tampa Bay, Florida (2001, 2002, 2003, and 2005) for total numbers of reproducing trees and trees heterozygotic for albinism that produce both normal and albino propagules. Tree size (estimated height and diameter at breast height) was also recorded for sentinel heterozygotic trees. Total number of reproducing trees km⁻¹ was used as an index of reproductive output of the population, and deviation from the 3∶1 (normal:albino propagules) ratio on heterozygotic trees expected with 100% selfing was used to estimate outcrossing. Numbers ofRhizophora mangle reproducing trees km⁻¹ of shoreline in Charlotte Harbor were reduced by an order of magnitude following Hurricane Charley, while numbers of reproducing trees in Tampa Bay were similar to those of previous years. Reduced reproduction in Charlotte Harbor was accompanied by fewer new recruits in plots on Sanibel and Captiva Islands. Numbers of new recruits after the storm also tended to be fewer in plots where canopy loss was greater. More new recruits occurred in sites that had higher densities of pre-stormRhizophora seedlings and greater relative dominance byRhizophora. Outcrossing of sentinel trees was 2.5 times greater, in Charlotte Harbor (mean site⁻¹=33.6±6.7%; with 17% of forest sites completely selfing) than in Tampa Bay (mean site⁻¹=13.4±4.7%; with 40% of sites completely selfing), although the implications for seedling recruitment of this difference are not known.     

Seismic imaging of the laterally varying D" region beneath the Cocos Plate

We use an axisymmetric, spherical Earth finite difference algorithm to model SH -wave propagation through cross-sections of laterally varying lower mantle models beneath the Cocos Plate derived from recent data analyses. Synthetic seismograms with dominant periods as short as 4 s are computed for several models: (1) a D" reflector 264 km above the core–mantle boundary with laterally varying S -wave velocity increases of 0.9–2.6 per cent, based on localized structures from a 1-D double-array stacking method; (2) an undulating D" reflector with large topography and uniform velocity increase obtained using a 3-D migration method and (3) cross-sections through the 3-D mantle S -wave velocity tomography model TXBW. We apply double-array stacking to assess model predictions of data. Of the models explored, the S -wave tomography model TXBW displays the best overall agreement with data. The undulating reflector produces a double Scd arrival that may be useful in future studies for distinguishing between D" volumetric heterogeneity and D" discontinuity topography. Synthetics for the laterally varying models show waveform variability not observed in 1-D model predictions. It is challenging to predict 3-D structure based on localized 1-D models when lateral structural variations are on the order of a few wavelengths of the energy used, particularly for the grazing geometry of our data. Iterative approaches of computing synthetic seismograms and adjusting model characteristics by considering path integral effects are necessary to accurately model fine-scale D" structure.     

Immigrant Profiles of U.S. Urban Areas and Agents of Resettlement*

This article targets the role of intermediaries, such as refugee resettlement programs, in altering the geography of the foreign‐born. It argues that, under such intermediaries, destination choice within the United States is largely determined not by economic mechanisms but instead by information‐related factors such as friction of distance, migration chains, labor procurement, and resettlement intermediaries. Metropolitan statistical area (MSA) destinations are grouped into four profiles based on their mix of foreign‐born. The result is sets of MSAs differentiated by the era of immigration, immigrant origins, geographic pattern, and place characteristics that draw migrants. To evaluate intermediary impacts, monies allocated to states by the Office of Refugee Resettlement, refugee resettlement by state, and refugee movements to MSAs are expressed as a Refugee Resettlement Index and linked to MSA profiles. We conclude that although refugees constitute only a portion of total immigration, their effects are disproportionately large in terms of changing the foreign‐born profiles of MSAs and other communities, changing the fabric of society, and changing the geography of the foreign‐born in all its ramifications.     

Tree-ring reconstructed megadroughts over North America since a.d. 1300

Tree-ring reconstructed summer Palmer Drought Severity Indices (PDSI) are used to identify decadal droughts more severe and prolonged than any witnessed during the instrumental period. These “megadroughts” are identified at two spatial scales, the North American continental scale (exclusive of Alaska and boreal Canada) and at the sub-continental scale over western North America. Intense decadal droughts have had significant environmental and socioeconomic impacts, as is illustrated with historical information. Only one prolonged continent-wide megadrought during the past 500 years exceeded the decadal droughts witnessed during the instrumental period, but three megadroughts occurred over the western sector of North America from a.d. 1300 to 1900. The early 20th century pluvial appears to have been unmatched at either the continental or sub-continental scale during the past 500 to 700 years. The decadal droughts of the 20th century, and the reconstructed megadroughts during the six previous centuries, all covered large sectors of western North America and in some cases extended into the eastern United States. All of these persistent decadal droughts included shorter duration cells of regional drought (sub-decadal  ≈  6 years), most of which resemble the regional patterns of drought identified with monthly and annual data during the 20th century. These well-known regional drought patterns are also characterized by unique monthly precipitation climatologies. Intense sub-decadal drought shifted among these drought regions during the modern and reconstructed multi-year droughts, which prolonged large-scale drought and resulted in the regimes of megadrought.     

A note on the top-down and bottom-up gradient functions over a forested site

The dimensionless bottom-up and top-down gradient functions in the convective boundary layer (CBL) are evaluated utilizing long-term well-calibrated carbon dioxide mixing ratio and flux measurements from multiple levels of a 447-m tall tower over a forested area in northern Wisconsin, USA. The estimated bottom-up and top-down functions are qualitatively consistent with those from large-eddy simulation (LES) results and theoretical expectations. Newly fitted gradient functions are proposed based on observations for this forested site. The integrated bottom-up function over the lowest 4% of the CBL depth estimated from the tower data is about five times larger than that from LES results for a ‘with-canopy’ case, and is smaller than that from LES results for a ‘no-canopy’ case by a factor of 0.7. We discuss the uncertainty in the evaluated gradient functions due to stability, wind direction, and uncertainty in the entrainment flux and show that while all of these have a significant impact on the gradient functions, none can explain the differences between the modelled and observed functions. The effects of canopy features and atmospheric stability may need to be considered in the gradient function relations.     

LandScan USA: a high-resolution geospatial and temporal modeling approach for population distribution and dynamics

High-resolution population distribution data are critical for successfully addressing important issues ranging from socio-environmental research to public health to homeland security, since scientific analyses, operational activities, and policy decisions are significantly influenced by the number of impacted people. Dasymetric modeling has been a well-recognized approach for spatial decomposition of census data to increase the spatial resolution of population distribution. However, enhancing the temporal resolution of population distribution poses a greater challenge. In this paper, we discuss the development of LandScan USA, a multi-dimensional dasymetric modeling approach, which has allowed the creation of a very high-resolution population distribution data both over space and time. At a spatial resolution of 3 arc seconds (～90 m), the initial LandScan USA database contains both a nighttime residential as well as a baseline daytime population distribution that incorporates movement of workers and students. Challenging research issues of disparate and misaligned spatial data and modeling to develop a database at a national scale, as well as model verification and validation approaches are illustrated and discussed. Initial analyses indicate a high degree of locational accuracy for LandScan USA distribution model and data. High-resolution population data such as LandScan USA, which describes both distribution and dynamics of human population, clearly has the potential to profoundly impact multiple domain applications of national and global priority.     

Development and the Household: Missing the point?

Over the past two decades development has been shifting its focus toward smaller scales and particular problems. As a result, the household has become an increasingly important institution for development, and has come under increased scrunity as development practitioners and scholars seek to better understand this institution’s functions and foundations, trying to ‘get the household right’. These efforts, rather than clarifying the character and the function of the household, have contributed to its indeterminacy by reifying the very institution they seek to analyse. Arguing that these efforts fundamentally miss the point of examining the household, this paper introduces a different framework of analysis that addresses the household not as a fixed object of research, but as a local construction that embodies flows of power and knowledge both within and transcending the local. Using the example of varying constructions of the household in two villages in Ghana’s Central Region, this article illustrates how such an approach allows us to address the various functions of the household as particular embodiments of these flows, an approach that better explains the endurance or ephemerality of these functions. Such an approach provides a stronger foundation for the consideration of how particular constructions of this institution may have troubling implications for issues like gender equity and sustainability.