An approach for quantifying geomorphological impacts for EIA of transportation infrastructures: a case study in northern Spain

A methodological proposal for the assessment of impacts due to linear infrastructures such as motorways, railways, etc. is presented. The approach proposed includes a series of specific issues to be addressed for each geomorphological feature analysed—both ‘static’ and ‘dynamic’—as well as a series of steps to be followed in the process.Geomorphic characteristics potentially affected were initially identified on the basis of a conceptual activities/impacts model that helps to single out geomorphic impacts related to environmental concerns for the area. The following issues were addressed for each individual impact: nature of potential effects; indicators that can be used to measure impacts; criteria of ‘geomorphologic performance’; procedure for measurement/prediction of changes; translation of geomorphologic impacts into significant terms from the viewpoint of human concerns; possible mitigation and/or compensation measures.The procedure has been applied to a case study corresponding to a new motorway in the Basque Country, northern Spain. Geomorphological impacts considered in this analysis included: (1) consumable resources; (2) sites of geomorphological interest; (3) land units with high potential for use, high productivity or value for conservation; (4) visual landscape; (5) slope instability processes. The procedure has been designed for implementation in a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment. Details are given on the application of the method to each individual impact analysed and results are presented in both numerical and map form.Impacts assessed were initially expressed by means of heterogeneous magnitudes, depending on the geomorphological feature considered. Those geomorphological impacts were then translated into significant terms and homogeneous magnitudes. Integration was carried out on the basis of impact values thus obtained. Final integrated results were also expressed in numerical and map form.The method proposed enables comparison of alternatives as well as ‘prediction’ and assessment of impacts in terms directly related to geomorphic characteristics. It also facilitates the expression of those impacts in terms that allow integration with other types of environmental impacts.     

Determination of Lithium, Beryllium and Boron at Trace Levels by Laser Ablation-Inductively Coupled Plasma-Sector Field Mass Spectrometry

The analytical capabilities of laser ablation (LA)-ICP-MS in determining Li, Be and B at trace levels in geological samples have been tested on a series of glass reference materials and natural samples. The LA-ICP-MS instrument used consisted of a sector-field ICP-MS coupled with a laser ablation microprobe operating at either 266 or 213 nm wavelength. Reference glasses from NIST (SRM 612, 614 and 616) and MPI-DING (KL2-G, ML3B-G, StHs6/80-G, GOR128-G, GOR132-G, T1-G and ATHO-G) were selected to develop the analytical method and to assess the best instrumental configuration. A series of calcic amphiboles with different Li, Be and B concentrations were also analysed using both LA-ICP-MS and SIMS to test the applicability of the method to natural minerals. Results indicated that with a spot size of 40 μm the agreement between measured and reference values of Li, Be and B is generally better than 10% for NIST SRM 612 and 20% for NIST SRM 614. Average reproducibility at the 2s level was 10% for Li, 20% for Be and 15% for B. Limits of detection were approximately 100 ng g^-1 for Be and B and 200 ng g^-1 for Li. These results were confirmed by analyses carried out on natural amphiboles and compared well in terms of precision and accuracy with those commonly achieved by SIMS.     

Prediction of ground displacements and velocities from groundwater level changes at the Vallcebre landslide (Eastern Pyrenees, Spain)

In active landslides, the prediction of acceleration of movement is a crucial issue for the design and performance of warning systems. The landslide of Vallcebre in the Eastern Pyreenes, Spain, has been monitored since 1996 and data on rainfall, groundwater levels and ground displacements are measured on a regular basis. Displacements observed in borehole wire extensometers have shown an immediate response of the landslide to rainfall episodes. This rapid response is likely due to the presence of preferential drainage ways. The occurrence of nearly constant rates of displacement in coincidence with steady groundwater levels suggests the presence of viscous forces developed during the movement. An attempt to predict both landslide displacements and velocities was performed at Vallcebre by solving the momentum equation in which a viscous term (Bingham and power law) was added. Results show that, using similar rheological parameters for the entire landslide, computed displacements reproduce quite accurately the displacements observed at three selected wire extensometers. These results indicate that prediction of displacements from groundwater level changes is feasible.     

A hydraulic invariance‐based methodology for the implementation of storm‐water release restrictions in urban land use master plans

A hydraulic invariance (HI)‐based methodology was developed as a tool to support implementation of storm flow control measures into land use master plans (LUMPs) for urban catchments. The methodology is based on the use of simple hydrologic analysis to compare predevelopment and postdevelopment catchment flow release scenarios. Differently from previous literature examples, for which the parcel scale is usually considered for the analysis, HI was pursued assuming the LUMP areas of transformation as the basic units for assigning storm water control measures in the form of flow release restrictions. The methodology was applied to a case study catchment in the southern part of the City of Catania (Italy), for which the LUMP re‐design has been recently proposed. Simulations were run based on the use of the EPA‐Storm Water Management Model and allowed deriving flow release restrictions in order to achieve HI at the subcatchment level for design events of different return period.     

Thresholds of intrabed flow and other interactions of turbidity currents with soft muddy substrates

Controlled laboratory experiments reveal that the lower part of turbidity currents has the ability to enter fluid mud substrates, if the bed shear stress is higher than the yield stress of the fluid mud and the density of the turbidity current is higher than the density of the substrate. Upon entering the substrate, the turbidity current either induces mixing between flow‐derived sediment and substrate sediment, or it forms a stable horizontal flow front inside the fluid mud. Such ‘intrabed’ flow is surrounded by plastically deformed mud; otherwise it resembles the front of a ‘bottom‐hugging’ turbidity current. The ‘suprabed’ portion of the turbidity current, i.e. the upper part of the flow that does not enter the substrate, is typically separated from the intrabed flow by a long horizontal layer of mud which originates from the mud that is swept over the top of the intrabed flow and then incorporated into the flow. The intrabed flow and the mixing mechanism are specific types of interaction between turbidity currents and muddy substrates that are part of a larger group of interactions, which also include bypass, deposition, erosion and soft sediment deformation. A classification scheme for these types of interactions is proposed, based on an excess bed shear stress parameter, which includes the difference in the bed shear stress imposed by the flow and the yield stress of the substrate and an excess density parameter, which relies on the density difference between the flow and the substrate. Based on this classification scheme, as well as on the sedimentological properties of the laboratory deposits, an existing facies model for intrabed turbidites is extended to the other types of interaction involving soft muddy substrates. The physical threshold of flow‐substrate mixing versus stable intrabed flow is defined using the gradient Richardson number, and this method is validated successfully with the laboratory data. The gradient Richardson number is also used to verify that stable intrabed flow is possible in natural turbidity currents, and to determine under which conditions intrabed flow is likely to be unstable. It appears that intrabed flow is likely only in natural turbidity currents with flow velocities well below ca 3·5 m s^?1, although a wider range of flows is capable of entering fluid muds. Below this threshold velocity, intrabed flow is stable only at high‐density gradients and low‐velocity gradients across the upper boundary of the turbidity current. Finally, the gradient Richardson number is used as a scaling parameter to set the flow velocity limits of a natural turbidity current that formed an inferred intrabed turbidite in the deep‐marine Aberystwyth Grits Group, West Wales, United Kingdom.     

Estimation of transit trip production using Factorial Kriging with External Drift: an aggregated data case study

Studies in transportation planning routinely use data in which location attributes are an important source of information. Thus, using spatial attributes in urban travel forecasting models seems reasonable. The main objective of this paper is to estimate transit trip production using Factorial Kriging with External Drift (FKED) through an aggregated data case study of Traffic Analysis Zones in São Paulo city, Brazil. The method consists of a sequential application of Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and Kriging with External Drift (KED). The traditional Linear Regression (LR) model was adopted with the aim of validating the proposed method. The results show that PCA summarizes and combines 23 socioeconomic variables using 4 components. The first component is introduced in KED, as secondary information, to estimate transit trip production by public transport in geographic coordinates where there is no prior knowledge of the values. Cross-validation for the FKED model presented high values of the correlation coefficient between estimated and observed values. Moreover, low error values were observed. The accuracy of the LR model was similar to FKED. However, the proposed method is able to map the transit trip production in several geographical coordinates of non-sampled values.     

Metallic Mineral Resources in the Twenty-First Century. I. Historical Extraction Trends and Expected Demand

Industrial, technological, and economic developments depend on the availability of metallic raw materials. As a greater fraction of the Earth’s population has become part of developed economies and as developed societies have become more affluent, the demand on metallic mineral resources has increased. Yet metallic minerals are non-renewable natural resources, the supply of which, even if unknown and potentially large, is finite. An analysis of historical extraction trends for eighteen metals, going back to the year 1900, demonstrates that demand of metallic raw materials has increased as a result of both increase in world population and increase in per-capita consumption. These eighteen metals can be arranged into four distinct groups, for each of which it is possible to identify a consistent pattern of per-capita demand as a function of time. These patterns can, in turn, be explained in terms of the industrial and technological applications, and in some cases conventional uses as well, of the metals in each group. Under the assumption that these patterns will continue into the future, and that world population will grow by no more than about 50% by the year 2100, one can estimate the amount of metallic raw materials that will be required to sustain the world’s economy throughout the twenty-first century. From the present until the year 2100, the world can be expected to require about one order of magnitude more metal than the total amount of metal that fueled technological and economic growth between the age of steam and the present day. For most of the metals considered here, this corresponds to 5–10 times the amount of metal contained in proven ore reserves. The two chief driving factors of this expected demand are growth in per-capita consumption and present-day absolute population numbers. World population is already so large that additional population growth makes only a small contribution to the expected future demand of metallic raw materials. It is not known whether or not the amount of metal required to sustain the world’s economy throughout this century exists in exploitable mineral resources. In the accompanying paper, I show that it is nevertheless possible to make statistical inferences about the size distribution of the mineral deposits that will need to be discovered and developed in order to satisfy the expected demand. Those results neither prove nor disprove that the needed resources exist but can be used to improve our understanding of the challenges facing future supply of metallic raw materials.