Comparison of the main characteristics of the daily zonally averaged surface air temperature as represented by reanalysis and seven CMIP3 models

This paper analyses the ability exhibited by seven coupled global climate models of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project 3 used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to simulate current zonally averaged surface air temperature (ZASAT) meridional profiles. The expansion in second order of ZASAT profiles by means of Legendre polynomials was compared with the same expansion carried out over the ZASAT profiles provided by the ERA40 and National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis from 1961 to 1998. According to the theoretical support provided by the one-dimensional energy balance models (1D-EBMs), the Legendre coefficients corresponding to the ZASAT profile can be qualitatively interpreted as the independent modes that represent the meridional energy flux from the equator to the poles. We find that three models, MIROC3.2-MR, MIROC3.2-HR and MPI-ECHAM5 may be considered as the models that best reproduce the meridional structure of current ZASAT, although the differences between the models are not really large. Consequently, the results shown in this paper support the accuracy of the models in representing the poleward meridional heat fluxes and global thermal inertia under the qualitative interpretation provided by the 1D-EBM approach.     

Seismic-event-based methodology to obtain earthquake-induced translational landslide regional hazard maps

A seismic-event-based methodology to generate earthquake-induced translational landslide maps using Newmark method is proposed. The steps are: (1) to construct a GIS-based geotechnical database; (2) to identify those areas that are susceptible to the occurrence of translational landslides based on available geological information; (3) to compute a static safety factor; (4) to compute the critical acceleration that defines the threshold acceleration required to cause a displacement; (5) to characterize the seismic hazard as a set of stochastic events, collectively exhaustive and mutually exclusive, that fully describes the hazard spatial distribution and annual frequency of occurrence (in accordance with the earthquake location, depth and magnitude) with the appropriate ground-motion prediction equations; (6) to compute the Newmark displacement; and finally, (7) to carry out a probabilistic translational landslide hazard analysis to estimate an exceedance rate of a given displacement. This methodology is applied to Mexico, and maps for return periods of 150 and 500 years are presented. Results shown in maps are estimations of where translational landslides may occur and should be useful to carry out local studies to elaborate recommendations of site specific hazard reduction plans as well as to calculate insurance rates. In addition, these results are useful to identify civil protection actions, risk management at regional and local level, and land use planning, as well as for promoting more detailed vulnerability and risk studies at different scales.     

The Science Operations Centre of MINISAT-01

The Scientific Operations Centre (C.O.C.) takes care of all aspects of theMinisat-01 Mission related to the payload and its scientific instruments. Operations planning, preparation of commands, monitoring of the scientific instruments and data processing and distribution are the daily tasks carried out at the COC. We review these tasks along the operational life of Minisat-01 and we present a summary of the science operations andsome statistics on the usage of the satellite.     

Assessment of aquifer recharge and groundwater availability in a semiarid region of Brazil in the context of an interbasin water transfer scheme

Particularly in arid and semiarid areas, more and more populations rely almost entirely on imported water. However, the extent to which intentional discharge into transiting river systems and unintentional leakage may be augmenting water resources for communities along and down gradient of the water transfer scheme has not previously been subject to research. The objective of this study was to assess both the potential of a large-scale water transfer (WT) scheme to increase groundwater availability by channel transmission losses in a large dryland aquifer system (2,166 km²) in Brazil, and the capability of the receiving streams to transport water downstream under a prolonged drought. An integrated surface-water/groundwater model was developed to improve the estimation of the groundwater resources, considering the spatio-temporal variability of infiltrated rainfall for aquifer recharge. Aquifer recharge from the WT scheme was simulated under prolonged drought conditions, applying an uncertainty analysis of the most influential fluxes and parameters. The annual recharge (66 mm/year) was approximately twice the amount of water abstracted (1990–2016); however, the annual recharge dropped to 13.9 mm/year from 2012 to 2016, a drought period. Under similar drought conditions, the additional recharge (6.89 × 106 m³/year) from the WT scheme did not compensate for the decrease in groundwater head in areas that do not surround the receiving streams. Actually, the additional recharge is counteracted by a decrease of 25% of natural groundwater recharge or an increase of 50% in pumping rate; therefore, WT transmission losses alone would not solve the issue of the unsustainable management of groundwater resources.

     

Significant duration predictive models developed from strong-motion data of thrust-faulting earthquakes recorded in Mexico City

Predictive models for estimating strong-motion duration in sites characterized by soft-soil profiles are presented in this paper. The models were developed using a strong-motion database that includes observations from subduction interface earthquakes that occurred from 1989 to 2020 and recorded in Mexico City, which is located at source-to-site distances up to 600 km. A linear mixed-effects regression model, which is a statistical fitting procedure that allows to consider the correlation structure of grouped data, was used to develop the predictive models. Relative significant duration was selected to measure strong-motion duration. This measure can be directly associated with the accumulation of energy of the ground movement. The proposed predictive models relate relative significant duration with moment magnitude, either hypocentral distance or closest distance to the rupture plane, and dominant period of the soil. Regression analyses were performed grouping the ground-motion data by both seismic event and site class. Model assumptions, such as homoscedasticity, normality, and linearity of effects, were verified from residual analyses. From the results, the expected value of the natural logarithm of relative significant duration was found to be ～1.2 times greater for an earthquake with a moment magnitude equal to 8.0 than for one of 6.0. An insightful discussion about the sources and character of the uncertainties detected in the proposed predictive models is also presented in this study. The predictive models proposed in this paper are of valuable application in seismic and structural engineering because they allow to circumscribe properly the dimension and randomness of strong-motion duration.     

Hydrogeochemical and nitrate isotopic evolution of a semiarid mountainous basin aquifer of glacial-fluvial and paleolacustrine origin (Lake Titicaca,Bolivia): the effects of natural processes and anthropogenic activities

Hydrogeology Journal - A hydrogeochemical and stable isotopic ( $${\updelta }^{15}{\mathrm{N}}_{{\mathrm{NO}}_{3}}$$ and $${\updelta }^{18}{\mathrm{O}}_{{\mathrm{NO}}_{3}}$$ ) multitracer approach...     

On the automatic parameter calibration of a hypoplastic soil model

Acta Geotechnica - This paper presents an approach for the automatic parameter calibration (AC) of a hypoplastic constitutive soil model. The calibration software developed in this work simplifies...     

A 1D Hypoplastic constitutive model for expansive soils

This paper presents a simple hypoplastic constitutive model that describes the essential features of the material behaviour of partially saturated clayey soils observed in oedometric compression tests. The model is formulated in terms of net stress and degree of saturation. The total strain rate is decomposed into a portion related to the changes in saturation and a portion for the evolution of net stress. However, no distinction is made between plastic and elastic strains. With this strain rate decomposition, the maximum swelling strain/stress are obtained by simulating wetting processes under constant stress/strain conditions. In addition to the void ratio, the model includes two scalar variables to track the loading history (preloading). The calibration of the model constants using common laboratory tests is discussed. Confined and unconfined swelling tests under oedometric conditions with subsequent loading and unloading phases carried out on three different materials were satisfactorily simulated by the model. Its promising results call for an extension to a 3D formulation.

     

Integrating remote sensing and GIS techniques for monitoring and modeling shoreline evolution to support coastal risk management

The precise delineation of coastal areas subject to past, present, and future erosive processes plays a fundamental role in coastal risk management. Within this framework, satellite data represent a valuable synoptic and multi-temporal information source. Therefore, this research integrated remote sensing and GIS techniques for mapping and modeling shoreline evolution through time. Long-term shoreline’s proxy rates of advance and retreat were determined using Landsat data from the mid-1980s to 2011 and subsequently, a short-term scenario (3 years) was predicted and validated. Two different coastal environments, Oceanic and Mediterranean, were investigated. In the first, different proxies were analyzed, thereby enabling a multi-proxy analysis. Findings showed that the method provided more accurate results in higher energy environments (Oceanic) and where the coastline is not urbanized. Results also highlighted the importance of performing multi-proxy analyses in given study areas, to more reliably define shoreline modeling. Importantly, during the analyses, particular attention was given to assessing uncertainty, which is crucial when outcomes of scientific research are considered for management.     

Effects of hurricane Odile on the infrastructure of Baja California Sur,Mexico

In September 2014, the state of Baja California Sur (BCS), Mexico, was struck by hurricane Odile. The hurricane caused extensive damage to the infrastructure of the state of BCS, where the energy and water supply were interrupted for several days. The direct economic impact was estimated to be more than 1654 million USD. Considering this damage, few days after the cyclonic event, a technical visit to BCS was carried out. The objective of this study is to present the relevant information on the performance of the infrastructure observed after the event, and to make recommendations in order to mitigate the effects of future cyclonic storms in Mexico, based on the observations during the technical visit. The main causes of damage were the use of materials for non-structural elements with a weak performance under high wind speeds, failures in the design and construction of connections of structural and non-structural elements, accumulated damage, lack of maintenance and impact of wind-born debris, as well as the absence of a building code in the region. Background information about meteorological and climatological aspects of the cyclones that have affected the southern region of BCS, the characteristics of hurricane Odile, the analysis of structural damages and the conclusions, are also presented.