Modelling soil heat flux

A mathematical model to calculate soil heat flux in three steps is presented. In the first, an hourly air temperature based on the average daily temperature, using Fourier series coefficients is estimated. The estimated hourly air temperature constitutes an input variable for the second step of the model. In the second step, heat transfer principles, using the thermal properties of the soil in order to obtain a soil temperature profile in a 1-m-depth soil stratum, is applied. Finally, the results of the second stage are used to numerically calculate hourly heat flux in the soil. Correlation coefficients between observed and calculated hourly temperature values over the three summer months were 0.98, 0.97 and 0.96. Correlation coefficient for the entire study period between observed and estimated soil heat-flux values was 0.92 with a mean square error of 19.8 W m^–2.     

Prediction of seasonal water-table fluctuations in La Pampa and Buenos Aires, Argentina

The fluctuation of the water table east of La Pampa province and northwest of Buenos Aires province, Argentina, influences agricultural production in the region because it is closely related to the alternation of dry and wet periods. Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies have been used as predictors to forecast atmospheric variables in different regions of the world. The objective of this work is to present a simple model to forecast seasonal rainfall using SST distribution in the Pacific Ocean as a predictor. Once the relationship between precipitation and water-table fluctuations was established, a methodology for the prediction of water-table fluctuations was developed. A good agreement between observed and predicted water-table fluctuations was found when estimating water-table fluctuations in the summer and autumn seasons. Electronic Publication     

Using historical source data to understand urban flood risk: a socio-hydrological modelling application at Gregório Creek,Brazil

ABSTRACT

The city of São Carlos, state of São Paulo, Brazil, has a historical coexistence between society and floods. Unplanned urbanization in this area is a representative feature of how Brazilian cities have developed, undermining the impact of natural hazards. The Gregório Creek catchment is an enigma of complex dynamics concerning the relationship between humans and water in Brazilian cities. Our hypothesis is that social memory of floods can improve future resilience. In this paper we analyse flood risk dynamics in a small urban catchment, identify the impacts of social memory on building resilience and propose measures to reduce the risk of floods. We applied a socio-hydrological model using data collected from newspapers from 1940 to 2018. The model was able to elucidate human–water processes in the catchment and the historical source data proved to be a useful tool to fill gaps in the data in small urban basins.     

Probabilistic site-dependent non-linear spectra

This paper presents a probabilistic approach to the estimation of lateral strengths required to provide an adequate control of inelastic deformations in structures during severe earthquake ground motions. In contrast to a deterministic approach, the approach presented herein accounts explicitly for the variability of the response of non-linear systems due to the inherent uncertainties in the intensity and characteristics of the input excitation by considering the probability distribution of maximum inelastic strength demands. This study is based on the computation of non-linear strength demands of single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) systems experiencing different levels of inelastic deformation when subjected to 124 recorded earthquake ground motions. Using empirical cumulative distribution functions site-dependent probabilistic non-linear spectra were computed for six probabilities of exceedance of different levels of inelastic deformation. It is concluded that the lateral strength required to control displacement ductility demands is significantly affected by the maximum tolerable inelastic deformation, the system's period of vibration, the local site conditions and the level of risk in exceeding the maximum tolerable deformations.     

Long-term change in eelgrass distribution at Bahía San Quintín,Baja California,Mexico, using satellite imagery

Seagrasses are critically important components of many marine coastal and estuarine ecosystems, but are declining worldwide. Spatial change in distribution of eelgrass,Zostera marina L., was assessed at Bahía San Quintín, Baja California, Mexico, using a map to map comparison of data interpreted from a 1987 Satellite Pour l'Observation de la Terre multispectral satellite image and a 2000 Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapping image. Eelgrass comprised 49% and 43% of the areal extent of the bay in 1987 and 2000, respectively. Spatial extent of eelgrass was 13% less (−321 ha) in 2000 than in 1987 with most losses occurring in subtidal areas. Over the 13-yr study period, there was a 34% loss of submerged eelgrass (−457 ha) and a 13% (+136 ha) gain of intertidal eelgrass. Within the two types of intertidal eelgrass, the patchy cover class (<85% cover) expanded (+250 ha) and continuous cover class (≥85% cover) declined (−114 ha). Most eelgrass losses were likely the result of sediment loading and turbidity caused by a single flooding event in winter of 1992–1993. Recent large-scale agricultural development of adjacent uplands may have exacerbated the effects of the flood. Oyster farming was not associated with any detectable losses in eelgrass spatial extent, despite the increase in number of oyster racks from 57 to 484 over the study period.     

Effects of the Jessica oil spill on artisanal fisheries in the Galápagos

In contrast to local perceptions, the impact on the local Galápagos artisanal fishery of the 16 January 2001 grounding of the Jessica and subsequent oil spill was relatively minor. No significant changes in fishing effort, total fishing catches or catch-per-unit effort were detected after the spill based on analyses of fisheries monitoring data. Nevertheless, large boats tended to move away from sites near the path of the spill following the grounding in 2001, with no fishing recorded from the oil-affected regions of Floreana and southern Isabela in February 2001. The total fishing effort of small boats operating from the Jessica-grounding island of San Cristóbal also declined immediately after the spill, probably in part because such boats were used in clean up operations. During 2001, prices paid to fishers remained stable at levels higher than in 2000, with the notable anomaly that prices fell precipitously to 30% of previous levels during a 1-2 week period in early February 2001. Fish exports remained at similar levels for the years 2000 and 2001; however, as in the previous year, little fish product was exported from Galápagos in the month following the spill, with most fish product dried and stored for up to two months prior to transport to the continent.     

Uncertainty Estimate in Resources Assessment: A Geostatistical Contribution

For many decades the mining industry regarded resources/reserves estimation and classification as a mere calculation requiring basic mathematical and geological knowledge. Most methods were based on geometrical procedures and spatial data distribution. Therefore, uncertainty associated with tonnages and grades either were ignored or mishandled, although various mining codes require a measure of confidence in the values reported. Traditional methods fail in reporting the level of confidence in the quantities and grades. Conversely, kriging is known to provide the best estimate and its associated variance. Among kriging methods, Ordinary Kriging (OK) probably is the most widely used one for mineral resource/reserve estimation, mainly because of its robustness and its facility in uncertainty assessment by using the kriging variance. It also is known that OK variance is unable to recognize local data variability, an important issue when heterogeneous mineral deposits with higher and poorer grade zones are being evaluated. Altenatively, stochastic simulation are used to build local or global uncertainty about a geological attribute respecting its statistical moments. This study investigates methods capable of incorporating uncertainty to the estimates of resources and reserves via OK and sequential gaussian and sequential indicator simulation The results showed that for the type of mineralization studied all methods classified the tonnages similarly. The methods are illustrated using an exploration drill hole data sets from a large Brazilian coal deposit.     

Seismic and field evidence for selective inversion of Cretaceous normal faults, Salta rift, northwest Argentina

Northwestern Argentina was the site of the continental Salta rift in Cretaceous to Paleogene time. The Salta rift had a complex geometry with several subbasins of different trends and subsidence patterns surrounding a central high. Fault trends in the rift were extremely variable. There is evidence of normal and/or transfer faults trending N, NE, E and SE. It is not clear if all these faults were active at the same time, indicating a poorly defined extension direction, or if they formed in different, non-coaxial extension phases. In either case, their trends were very likely influenced by preexisting fault systems. Beginning in early Eocene time, the rift basins were superseded by Andean foreland basins and later became caught in the Andean thrust deformation propagating eastward, resulting in the inversion of rift faults. Due to their different orientations, not all faults were equally prone to reactivation as thrusts. N to NNE trending faults were apparently most strongly inverted, probably often to a degree where the traces of their normal fault origin have become obliterated. We present seismic evidence of moderately inverted N trending faults in the Tres Cruces basin and field examples of preserved E trending normal faults. However, reactivation sometimes also affects faults trending approximately parallel to the main Neogene shortening direction, indicating short-term deviations from the general pattern of Neogene thrust deformation. These pulses of orogen-parallel contraction may be linked to the intermittent activity of oblique transfer zones.