Impact of vegetation changes on a mesoscale convective system in West Africa

The evolution of precipitating convective systems in West Africa has been a research topic throughout the past three decades and is considered to be influenced by surface–atmosphere interactions. This study builds on the previous research by examining the sensitivity of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) to a change in the vegetation cover by using a regional atmospheric model with a high horizontal resolution. Vegetation cover values in the region between 10 and 15°N have increased by 10–30% over the last 20 years. The effect of both an increase and a decrease in vegetation cover by 10, 20 and 30% is investigated. The MCS case selected occurred on 11 June 2006 and was observed during the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis field campaign in Dano, Burkina Faso. The model is able to reproduce the most important characteristics of the MCS and the atmospheric environment. For the investigated case, no clear precipitation response of the MCS to the applied vegetation scenarios is found. The vegetation changes do alter the surface fluxes in the days before the MCS arrives, which have a clear effect on the modelled convective available potential energy (CAPE) values. However, a link between CAPE, mesoscale circulation and rainfall amounts could not be demonstrated as a dynamical mechanism is found to counteract the CAPE signal. By using a kilometre-scale model, a change in the cold pool dynamics of the MCS could be detected which results from alterations in boundary layer moisture. The effect of vegetation changes on the MCS is thus not straightforward and a complex interaction between different processes should be taken into account.     

Adaptation in integrated assessment modeling: where do we stand?

Adaptation is an important element on the climate change policy agenda. Integrated assessment models, which are key tools to assess climate change policies, have begun to address adaptation, either by including it implicitly in damage cost estimates, or by making it an explicit control variable. We analyze how modelers have chosen to describe adaptation within an integrated framework, and suggest many ways they could improve the treatment of adaptation by considering more of its bottom-up characteristics. Until this happens, we suggest, models may be too optimistic about the net benefits adaptation can provide, and therefore may underestimate the amount of mitigation they judge to be socially optimal. Under some conditions, better modeling of adaptation costs and benefits could have important implications for defining mitigation targets.     

Temporal and Spatial Variations of the Aerodynamic Roughness Length in the Ablation Zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet

To understand the response of the Greenland ice sheet to climate change the so-called ablation zone is of particular importance, since it accommodates the yearly net surface ice loss. In numerical models and for data analysis, the bulk aerodynamic method is often used to calculate the turbulent surface fluxes, for which the aerodynamic roughness length (z ₀) is a key parameter. We present, for the first time, spatial and temporal variations of z ₀ in the ablation area of the Greenland ice sheet using year-round data from three automatic weather stations and one eddy-correlation mast. The temporal variation of z ₀ is found to be very high in the lower ablation area (factor 500) with, at the end of the summer melt, a maximum in spatial variation for the whole ablation area of a factor 1000. The variation in time matches the onset of the accumulation and ablation season as recovered by sonic height rangers. During winter, snow accumulation and redistribution by snow drift lead to a uniform value of z ₀≈ 10⁻⁴ m throughout the ablation area. At the beginning of summer, snow melt uncovers ice hummocks and z ₀ quickly increases well above 10⁻² m in the lower ablation area. At the end of summer melt, hummocky ice dominates the surface with z ₀ > 5  ×  10⁻³ m up to 60 km from the ice edge. At the same time, the area close to the equilibrium line (about 90 km from the ice edge) remains very smooth with z ₀ = 10⁻⁵ m. At the beginning of winter, we observed that single snow events have the potential to lower z ₀ for a very rough ice surface by a factor of 20 to 50. The total surface drag of the abundant small-scale ice hummocks apparently dominates over the less frequent large domes and deep gullies. The latter results are verified by studying the individual drag contributions of hummocks and domes with a drag partition model.     

The Parameterisation of Scalar Transfer over Rough Ice

We test a surface renewal model that is widely used over snow and ice surfaces to calculate the scalar roughness length (z _s ), one of the key parameters in the bulk aerodynamic method. For the first time, the model is tested against observations that cover a wide range of aerodynamic roughness lengths (z ₀). During the experiments, performed in the ablation areas of the Greenland ice sheet and the Vatnajökull ice cap in Iceland, the surface varied from smooth snow to very rough hummocky ice. Over relatively smooth snow and ice with z ₀ below a threshold value of approximately 10^?3 m, the model performs well and in accord with earlier studies. However, with growing hummock size, z ₀ increases well above the threshold and the bulk aerodynamic flux becomes significantly smaller than the eddy-correlation flux (e.g. for z ₀ = 0.01 m, the bulk aerodynamic flux is about 50% smaller). Apparently, the model severely underpredicts z _s over hummocky ice. We argue that the surface renewal model does not account for the deep inhomogeneous roughness sublayer (RSL) that is generated by the hummocks. As a consequence, the homogeneous substrate ice grain cover becomes more efficiently ‘ventilated’. Calculations with an alternative model that includes the RSL and was adapted for use over hummocky ice, qualitatively confirms our observations. We suggest that, whenever exceedance of the threshold occurs (z ₀  >  10^?3 m, i.e., an ice surface covered with at least 0.3-m high hummocks), the following relation should be used to calculate scalar roughness lengths, ln (z _s /z ₀)  =  1.5  ? 0.2 ln (Re _*)  ? 0.11(ln (Re _*))².     

Internal variability in a regional climate model over West Africa

Sensitivity studies with regional climate models are often performed on the basis of a few simulations for which the difference is analysed and the statistical significance is often taken for granted. In this study we present some simple measures of the confidence limits for these types of experiments by analysing the internal variability of a regional climate model run over West Africa. Two 1-year long simulations, differing only in their initial conditions, are compared. The difference between the two runs gives a measure of the internal variability of the model and an indication of which timescales are reliable for analysis. The results are analysed for a range of timescales and spatial scales, and quantitative measures of the confidence limits for regional model simulations are diagnosed for a selection of study areas for rainfall, low level temperature and wind. As the averaging period or spatial scale is increased, the signal due to internal variability gets smaller and confidence in the simulations increases. This occurs more rapidly for variations in precipitation, which appear essentially random, than for dynamical variables, which show some organisation on larger scales.     

Conditional probabilistic estimates of 21st century greenhouse gas emissions based on the storylines of the IPCC-SRES scenarios

The conditional probabilistic scenario analysis combines statistical methods of uncertainty analysis at parameter level with storylines which recognize the deep uncertainty that exists for several underlying trends. The model calculations indicate that cumulative 21st century emissions could range from 800 to 2500 GtC in the absence of climate policy. This range originates partly from the underlying storylines, and partly from the probabilistic analysis. Among the most important parameters contributing to the uncertainty range are uncertainty in income growth, population growth, parameters determining energy demand, oil resources and fuel preferences. The contribution of these factors is also scenario-dependent.     

Climate benefits of changing diet

Climate change mitigation policies tend to focus on the energy sector, while the livestock sector receives surprisingly little attention, despite the fact that it accounts for 18% of the greenhouse gas emissions and for 80% of total anthropogenic land use. From a dietary perspective, new insights in the adverse health effects of beef and pork have lead to a revision of meat consumption recommendations. Here, we explored the potential impact of dietary changes on achieving ambitious climate stabilization levels. By using an integrated assessment model, we found a global food transition to less meat, or even a complete switch to plant-based protein food to have a dramatic effect on land use. Up to 2,700 Mha of pasture and 100 Mha of cropland could be abandoned, resulting in a large carbon uptake from regrowing vegetation. Additionally, methane and nitrous oxide emission would be reduced substantially. A global transition to a low meat-diet as recommended for health reasons would reduce the mitigation costs to achieve a 450 ppm CO₂-eq. stabilisation target by about 50% in 2050 compared to the reference case. Dietary changes could therefore not only create substantial benefits for human health and global land use, but can also play an important role in future climate change mitigation policies.     

Spectral properties of simulated impact glasses produced from martian soil analogue JSC Mars-1

To simulate the formation of impact glasses on Mars, an analogue of martian bright soil (altered volcanic soil JSC Mars-1) was melted at relevant oxygen fugacities using a pulsed laser and a resistance furnace. Reduction of Fe³⁺ to Fe²⁺ and in some cases formation of nanophase Fe⁰ in the glasses were documented by Mössbauer spectroscopy and TEM studies. Reflectance spectra for several size fractions of the JSC Mars-1 sample and the glasses were acquired between 0.3 and 25 μm. The glasses produced from the JSC Mars-1 soil show significant spectral variability depending on the method of production and the cooling rate. In general, they are dark and less red in the visible compared to the original JSC Mars-1 soil. Their spectra do not have absorption bands due to bound water and structural OH, have positive spectral slopes in the near-infrared range, and show two broad bands centered near 1.05 and 1.9 μm, typical of glasses rich in ferrous iron. The latter bands and low albedo partly mimic the spectral properties of martian dark regions, and may easily be confused with mafic materials containing olivine and low-Ca pyroxene. Due to their disordered structures and vesicular textures, the glasses show relatively weak absorption features from the visible to the thermal infrared. These weak absorption bands may be masked by the stronger bands of mafic minerals. Positive near-infrared spectral slopes typical of fresh iron-bearing impact or volcanic glasses may be masked either by oxide/dust coatings or by aerosols in the Mars' atmosphere. As a result, impact glasses may be present on the surface of Mars in significant quantities that have been either misidentified as other phases or masked by phases with stronger infrared features. Spectrometers with sufficient spatial resolution and wavelength coverage may detect impact glasses at certain locations, e.g., in the vicinity of fresh impact craters. Such dark materials are usually interpreted as accumulations of mafic volcanic sand, but the possibility of an impact melt origin of such materials also should be considered. In addition, our data suggest that high contents of feldspars or zeolites are not necessary to produce the transparency feature at 12.1 μm typical of martian dust spectra.     

Non-thermal transient sources from rotating black holes

Rotating black holes can power the most extreme non-thermal transient sources. They have a long-duration viscous time-scale of spin-down, and produce non-thermal emissions along their spin-axis, powered by a relativistic capillary effect. We report on the discovery of exponential decay in Burst and Triensient Source Experiment (BATSE) light curves of long gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) by matched filtering, consistent with a viscous time-scale, and identify ultra-high energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) about the Greisen–Zatsepin–Kuzmin (GZK) threshold with linear acceleration of ion contaminants along the black hole spin-axis, consistent with black hole masses and lifetimes of Fanaroff–Riley type II (FR II) active galactic nuclei (AGN). We explain the absence of UHECRs from BL Lac objects due to UHECR emissions preferably at appreciable angles away from the black hole spin-axis. Black hole spin may be the key to unification of GRBs and their host environments, and to AGN and their host galaxies. Our model points to long-duration bursts in radio from long GRBs without supernovae and gravitational waves from all long GRBs.