Formalization of assessing radioactive waste burial site seismic regime parameters from seismological and geological data

A model is proposed that shows the relation of the block structure of the crust and earthquake sources (Sadovskii, 1979; Rodionov, 1979, 1984, 1994; Bugaev, 1999, 2011, 2014, 2015). The model can formalize how to assess the prediction of seismic regime parameters depending on the elastic limit and conditions and rate of deformation of the Earth’s crust. The spent nuclear fuel repository site in Olkiluoto (Finland) and a site in the area of the Krasnoyarsk Mining and Chemical Combine are considered as examples. It is demonstrated that the parameters of the prediction graphs limit the location of the points of magnitude repeatability graphs calculated for a site based on samples of earthquakes in the area according to different authors. This makes it possible to recommend predictive assessment of seismic regime parameters for stability monitoring of the seismic regime and safety analysis of a geological environment’s insulation properties for waste sites from the results of seismological monitoring and high-precision observations of modern movements of the Earth’s crust.     

The motion of an emission-line region near the center of the galaxy NGC 4151

Possible orbits for the motion of a region in the gravitational field of the central body of the galaxy NGC 4151 are presented. The region is manifest through its line emission, observed in the red wing of the Hα, Pβ, and other broad lines. We carried out a computer selection of all Keplerian orbits for which the measured radial velocities of the emission-line region could be observed. We used radial-velocity data obtained by us at the Fesenkov Astrophysical Institute, as well as data from the literature. The computation results can be used to determine the mass range for the central body of NGC 4151 that provides the best agreement with the observational data: (61–65)× 10⁶ M _⊙. Suitably designed monitoring of active galactic nuclei can be used to verify these results, and to carry out similar analyses for other Seyfert galaxies.     

Behavior of the cosmic ray density during the initial phase of the Forbush effect

Variations in the cosmic ray density during the initial phase of the Forbush effect during the first hours after the arrival of the interplanetary shock wave have been studied with the use of data on variations in the cosmic ray density with a rigidity of 10 GV obtained by the global survey method by the world network of neutron monitors in 1957?2012. It is found that behavior of this parameter after the arrival of the shock wave demonstrates high variability. A small (~1/5 of total number), though distinct, group of Forbush effects, in which the density of the cosmic ray increases (not decreases) after the arrival of the shock wave, is defined. As a whole, the initial variation in cosmic ray density is correlated with the Forbush effect magnitude and the strength of the associated geomagnetic disturbance.     

Proton flux and radiation dose from galactic cosmic rays in the lunar regolith and implications for organic synthesis at the poles of the Moon and Mercury

Galactic cosmic rays are a potential energy source to stimulate organic synthesis from simple ices. The recent detection of organic molecules at the polar regions of the Moon by LCROSS (Colaprete, A. et al. [2010]. Science 330, 463–468, http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1186986), and possibly at the poles of Mercury (Paige, D.A. et al. [2013]. Science 339, 300–303, http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1231106), introduces the question of whether the organics were delivered by impact or formed in situ. Laboratory experiments show that high energy particles can cause organic production from simple ices. We use a Monte Carlo particle scattering code (MCNPX) to model and report the flux of GCR protons at the surface of the Moon and report radiation dose rates and absorbed doses at the Moon’s surface and with depth as a result of GCR protons and secondary particles, and apply scaling factors to account for contributions to dose from heavier ions. We compare our results with dose rate measurements by the Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) experiment on Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (Schwadron, N.A. et al. [2012]. J. Geophys. Res. 117, E00H13, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2011JE003978) and find them in good agreement, indicating that MCNPX can be confidently applied to studies of radiation dose at and within the surface of the Moon. We use our dose rate calculations to conclude that organic synthesis is plausible well within the age of the lunar polar cold traps, and that organics detected at the poles of the Moon may have been produced in situ. Our dose rate calculations also indicate that galactic cosmic rays can induce organic synthesis within the estimated age of the dark deposits at the pole of Mercury that may contain organics.     

Oxygen and hydrogen isotope fractionation in serpentine-water and talc-water systems from 250 to 450 °C, 50 MPa

Oxygen and hydrogen isotope fractionation factors in the talc-water and serpentine-water systems have been determined by laboratory experiment from 250 to 450 °C at 50 MPa using the partial exchange technique. Talc was synthesized from brucite + quartz, resulting in nearly 100% exchange during reaction at 350 and 450 °C. For serpentine, D-H exchange was much more rapid than ¹⁸O-¹⁶O exchange when natural chrysotile fibers were employed in the initial charge. In experiments with lizardite as the starting charge, recrystallization to chrysotile enhanced the rate of ¹⁸O-¹⁶O exchange with the coexisting aqueous phase. Oxygen isotope fractionation factors in both the talc-water and serpentine-water systems decrease with increasing temperature and can be described from 250 to 450 °C by the relationships: 1000 ln  = 11.70 × 10⁶/T² − 25.49 × 10³/T + 12.48 and 1000 ln  = 3.49 × 10⁶/T² − 9.48 where T is temperature in Kelvin. Over the same temperature interval at 50 MPa, talc-water D-H fractionation is only weakly dependent on temperature, similar to brucite and chlorite, and can be described by the equation: 1000 ln = 10.88 × 10⁶/T² − 41.52 × 10³/T + 5.61 where T is temperature in Kelvin. Our D-H serpentine-water fractionation factors calibrated by experiment decrease with temperature and form a consistent trend with fractionation factors derived from lower temperature field calibrations. By regression of these data, we have refined and extended the D-H fractionation curve from 25 to 450 °C, 50 MPa as follows: 1000 ln  = 3.436 × 10⁶/T² − 34.736 × 10³/T + 21.67 where T is temperature in Kelvin. These new data should improve the application of D-H and ¹⁸O-¹⁶O isotopes to constrain the temperature and origin of hydrothermal fluids responsible for serpentine formation in a variety of geologic settings.     

A model of impulsive loop flares revisited

A critical examination of the components of the recent impulsive loop flare model of Takakura is made. It is found that his analysis of the stability of the electron distribution resulting from anomalous heat conduction is in error and electron plasma waves would not be excited. Rather, in the regions where the electron/proton temperature ratioT _e/T _i 10, electrostatic ion-cyclotron waves would be excited and in the regions whereT _e 10, ion-acoustic waves would be excited. Ratios ofT _e/T _i 10 occur only in the late time development behind the conduction fronts. Since the anomalous resistivity due to electrostatic ion-cyclotron waves is fortuitously about 70% of the one used by Takakura, the general development will follow closely the one calculated by him. Because the anomalous resistivity due to ion-acoustic waves is about 95 times the one used by Takakura, the development in the parts of the loop whereT _e/T _i 10 for late times would be altered considerably.Also Guest Worker at NOAA Space Environment Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A.     

Amplitudes of long-period PcP and the core-mantle boundary

The amplitudes of the core reflection PcP are sensitive to the wave velocities and densities in the neighborhood of the core-mantle boundary (CMB). We study the amplitude ratio of the long-period phases PcP and P from two South American deep-focus earthquakes with favorable fault-plane solution, depth and magnitude, as recorded by WWNSS and CSN stations in North America.Comparison is made with long-period PcP/P amplitude ratios, derived from theoretical seismograms for a variety of CMB models. Models from previous studies, which were mainly derived from short-period PcP observations and which are characterized by discrete layers above the CMB, are almost all inconsistent with the long-period data. The data also discriminate against low nonzero S velocities below the CMB. Simple first-order-discontinuity models of the CMB, for instance according to the Jeffreys-Bullen earth model or according to recent models based mainly on free oscillations, explain the data reasonably well.Model improvements are attempted by varying the P-velocity gradient above the CMB. The best amplitude fit is obtained for a rather strong decrease in P velocity with depth in this zone which, however, gives no acceptable traveltime fit for PcP. The scatter in body-wave amplitudes is considerable even for long-period waves and may prevent the correct assessment of that part of the amplitude variation of a phase with distance that is due to the variation of velocities and densities with depth alone.