Non-linear channel–shoal dynamics in long tidal embayments

The dynamics of finite-amplitude bed forms in a tidal channel is studied with the use of an idealized morphodynamic model. The latter is based on depth-averaged equations for the tidal flow over a sandy bottom. The model considers phenomena on spatial scales of the order of the tidal excursion length. Transport of sediment mainly takes place as suspended load. The reference state of this model is characterized by a spatially uniform M₂ tidal current over a fixed horizontal bed. The temporal evolution of deviations from this reference state is governed by amplitude equations: these are a set of non-linear equations that describe the temporal evolution of bed forms. These equations are used to obtain new morphodynamic equilibria which may be either static or time-periodic. Several of these bottom profiles show strong similarity with the tidal bars that are observed in natural estuaries. The dependence of the equilibrium solutions on the value of bottom friction and channel width is investigated systematically. For narrow channels (width small compared to the tidal excursion length) stable static equilibria exist if bottom friction is slightly larger than r_cr. For channel widths more comparable to the tidal excursion length, multiple stable steady states may exist for bottom friction parameter values below r_cr. Regardless of channel width, stable time-periodic equilibria seem to emerge as the bottom friction is increased.Responsible Editor: Jens Kappenberg     

Community preparedness for lava flows from Mauna Loa and Hualālai volcanoes,Kona, Hawai‘i

Lava flows from Mauna Loa and Huallai volcanoes are a major volcanic hazard that could impact the western portion of the island of Hawaii (e.g., Kona). The most recent eruptions of these two volcanoes to affect Kona occurred in a.d. 1950 and ca. 1800, respectively. In contrast, in eastern Hawaii, eruptions of neighboring Klauea volcano have occurred frequently since 1955, and therefore have been the focus for hazard mitigation. Official preparedness and response measures are therefore modeled on typical eruptions of Klauea.The combinations of short-lived precursory activity (e.g., volcanic tremor) at Mauna Loa, the potential for fast-moving lava flows, and the proximity of Kona communities to potential vents represent significant emergency management concerns in Kona. Less is known about past eruptions of Huallai, but similar concerns exist. Future lava flows present an increased threat to personal safety because of the short times that may be available for responding.Mitigation must address not only the specific characteristics of volcanic hazards in Kona, but also the manner in which the hazards relate to the communities likely to be affected. This paper describes the first steps in developing effective mitigation plans: measuring the current state of peoples knowledge of eruption parameters and the implications for their safety. We present results of a questionnaire survey administered to 462 high school students and adults in Kona. The rationale for this study was the long lapsed time since the last Kona eruption, and the high population growth and expansion of infrastructure over this time interval. Anticipated future growth in social and economic infrastructure in this area provides additional justification for this work.The residents of Kona have received little or no specific information about how to react to future volcanic eruptions or warnings, and short-term preparedness levels are low. Respondents appear uncertain about how to respond to threatening lava flows and overestimate the minimum time available to react, suggesting that personal risk levels are unnecessarily high. A successful volcanic warning plan in Kona must be tailored to meet the unique situation there.     

On the sensitivity of computed surges to open-boundary formulation

A coarse-grid (resolution of order 7 km) model of the west coast of Britain is used to examine the sensitivity of computed storm-surge elevations and currents to a range of open-boundary conditions. The storm-surge period 1 to 26 March 1994 is used for this comparison, as it is a time of significant wind activity. Also current measurements in the North Channel of the Irish Sea together with coastal elevation measurements are available for model validation. Elevations and currents previously computed with a coarse-grid shelf-wide model can also be incorporated into the open-boundary condition to examine the influence of far-field effects. Initial model calculations with no far-field input show the importance of including shelf-wide effects from either the external shelf model, or by using observations from coastal gauges interpolated along the open boundary of the west-coast model. Provided the west-coast models open boundary is taken sufficiently far away from the region of interest, in this case the Irish Sea, then either a radiation condition or an elevation-specified condition is appropriate provided far-field effects are taken into account. If these are not included, then neither boundary condition is successful. For the radiation condition it is necessary to include both elevations and currents from a far-field model in order to reproduce the surge. In the case of an elevation-specified boundary condition far-field effects can be incorporated in hindcast calculations by including observed sea-level changes. In a storm-surge prediction calculation the radiation condition with a far-field model is required. Calculations show that computed elevations are spatially more coherent than currents, with flows through the western Irish Sea showing the greatest sensitivity to open-boundary formulation during storm events.Responsible Editor: Phil Dyke     

A model for grain-size sorting over tidal sand ridges

A model was developed and analyzed to quantify the effect of graded sediment on the formation of tidal sand ridges. Field data reveal coarse (fine) sediment at the crests (in the troughs), but often phase shifts between the mean grain-size distribution and the bottom topography occur. Following earlier work, this study is based on a linear stability analysis of a basic state with respect to small bottom perturbations. The basic state describes an alongshore tidal current on a coastal shelf. Sediment is transported as bed load and dynamic hiding effects are accounted for. A one-layer model for the bed evolution is used and two grain size classes (fine and coarse sand) are considered. Results indicate an increase in growth and migration rates of tidal sand ridges for a bimodal mixture, whilst the wavelength of the ridges remains unchanged. A symmetrical externally forced tidal current results in a grain-size distribution which is in phase with the ridges. Incorporation of an additional external M₄ tidal constituent or a steady current results in a phase shift between the grain-size distribution and ridge topography. These results show a general agreement with observations. The physical mechanism responsible for the observed grain-size distribution over the ridges is also discussed.Responsible Editor: Jens Kappenberg     

Evolution of sand waves in the Messina Strait, Italy

In the present paper the morphodynamics of sand waves in the Messina Strait, Italy, is analysed by comparing data gathered during two different surveys carried out in 1991 and 2001, respectively. In particular, a morphometric analysis on the most recent data and a qualitative analysis of the differences between bottom bedform patterns, are carried out. At locations characterised by greater depths, only minor changes to the planimetric configuration of the field, i.e. crest orientation (which is seen to be orthogonal to the direction of net gross sand transport) and wave length are observed, while differences in wave length and crest direction are more evident in more shallow areas. On the other hand, wave height has significantly increased in the whole field. A possible explanation of such a change, based on the previsions of a theory which relates sand-wave growth and migration to the main components of the tidal ellipse, is provided.Responsible Editor: Jens Kappenberg     

River runoff evaluation for ungauged watersheds by SWAP model. 2. Application of methods of physiographic similarity and spatial geostatistics

The efficiency of the methods of spatial proximity and geostatistics, as well as physico-geographic similarity, is studied as applied to the evaluation of the key model parameters of ungauged watersheds to be used in river runoff calculation by SWAP model. The target geographic objects were 323 experimental watersheds of MOPEX project. The quality of model parameter estimates and reproduction of river runoff hydrographs was analyzed in the case of the use of different similarity methods, and the order of decisions to be made was developed for the problem of river runoff calculation from an ungauged watershed for the entire area under study.     

Global stability of the ballooning mode in a cylindrical model

Ballooning disturbances in a finite-pressure plasma in a curvilinear magnetic field are described by the system of coupled equations for the Alfvén and slow magnetosonic modes. In contrast to most previous works that locally analyzed the stability of small-scale disturbances using the dispersion relationship, a global analysis outside a WKB approximation but within a simple cylindrical geometry, when magnetic field lines are circles with constant curvature, is performed in the present work. This model is relatively simple; nevertheless, it has the singularities necessary for the formation of the ballooning mode: field curvature and non-uniform thermal plasma pressure. If the disturbance finite radial extent is taken into account, the instability threshold increases as compared to a WKB approximation. The simplified model used in this work made it possible to consider the pattern of unstable disturbances at arbitrary values of the azimuthal wavenumber (k _y ). Azimuthally large-scale disturbances can also be unstable, although the increment increases with decreasing azimuthal scale and reaches saturation when the scales are of the order of the pressure nonuniformity dimension.     

Laboratory study of microseismicity spreading due to pore pressure change

Microseismicity variations in space and time due to pore pressure changes in an inhomogeneous permeable sample are considered. The analysis is based on laboratory experiments performed to study the relation between acoustic emission (which corresponds to microseismic events in real scale) and pore pressure changes due to water injection into, or release from, a porous sample under load. The study showed not only some characteristics of microseismicity variations during non-stationary fluid flow but also the possibility to solve the inverse problem of estimating local permeability from variations of microseismic activity in a particular volume of the porous medium.