2005年吉林省农业气象条件及其对农业生产的影响

2005年我省农业气象条件总体状况是：气温略高，积温接近常年，无霜期较长；降水偏多，汛期较长，日照不足。农业生产季节内，前期低温多雨寡照，没有发生大范围春旱，但部分地区低温多雨影响播种；中期雨水充沛，气温略高，作物生长旺盛，但局地性涝灾比较频繁；后期高温少雨，日照充足，初霜期偏晚，有利于作物灌浆成熟，但西部发生秋旱。总体上看，今年气象条件对农业生产的影响利大于弊，加之农业政策有利，生产投入增加．农业为丰收年景。     

呼市中部一次暴雨天气分析

对 2 0 0 2年 6月 2 1日呼市中部地区暴雨—大暴雨的环流形势、天气尺度系统、水汽条件、热力和动力条件进行了细致分析 ,得出 :当 5 0 0 h Pa处于脊后槽前 (东高西低 )的有利形势下 ,70 0 h Pa河套低涡暖湿切变线是造成这次暴雨—大暴雨的主要天气尺度系统 ;中低层由西南伸向内蒙古深厚的暖湿气层为暴雨储存了大量的不稳定能量 ;低层及地面动力强迫对垂直运动和水汽的垂直输送起着重要作用。     

遥感技术在华北地台北缘超基性岩信息提取中的应用

遥感技术在华北地台北缘超基性岩信息提取中的应用孙中庆，李银海（冶金部地质勘查总局，三河燕郊１０１６０１）关键词超基性岩、遥感技术、华北地台研究区位于中朝准地台和内蒙大兴安岭褶皱系两大构造单元的交接部位。区内大古界、元古界、古生界、中生界及新生界地层均...     

南昌市近60年城市气象灾害变化特征分析

利用南昌站1953—2012年气候资料及城市发展信息,分析了南昌城市气象灾害变化特征。结果表明,城市气象灾害年代际变化特征明显,受城市化影响越来越大。南昌市暴雨日数存在2—4 a的振荡周期。近10 a以来暴雨日数明显减少,但城市短时强降水频数增加,暴雨强度较大。年雷暴日数呈现下降趋势,存在2—4 a的周期振荡,雷电频次和强度有所增加。城市大风主要发生在春、冬季,且日数明显减少。大雾在20世纪50—80年代呈现增多趋势,但在近20 a呈现减少的趋势;霾明显增多。高温日的年代际变化差异较大,危害性高温日数减少,存在10 a左右的振荡周期。     

The role of prior model calibration on predictions with ensemble Kalman filter

This paper, based on a real world case study (Limmat aquifer, Switzerland), compares inverse groundwater flow models calibrated with specified numbers of monitoring head locations. These models are updated in real time with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the prediction improvement is assessed in relation to the amount of monitoring locations used for calibration and updating. The prediction errors of the models calibrated in transient state are smaller if the amount of monitoring locations used for the calibration is larger. For highly dynamic groundwater flow systems a transient calibration is recommended as a model calibrated in steady state can lead to worse results than a noncalibrated model with a well-chosen uniform conductivity. The model predictions can be improved further with the assimilation of new measurement data from on-line sensors with the EnKF. Within all the studied models the reduction of 1-day hydraulic head prediction error (in terms of mean absolute error [MAE]) with EnKF lies between 31% (assimilation of head data from 5 locations) and 72% (assimilation of head data from 85 locations). The largest prediction improvements are expected for models that were calibrated with only a limited amount of historical information. It is worthwhile to update the model even with few monitoring locations as it seems that the error reduction with EnKF decreases exponentially with the amount of monitoring locations used. These results prove the feasibility of data assimilation with EnKF also for a real world case and show that improved predictions of groundwater levels can be obtained.     

鄂尔多斯盆地长7段页岩和泥岩生烃特征及其地质意义——以延安地区为例

以鄂尔多斯盆地长7段泥岩和页岩为例,基于基本地球化学特征,开展封闭体系黄金管热模拟实验,分析泥岩和页岩生烃产率特征及黄铁矿对有机质生烃作用的影响。结果表明：在模拟温度为400℃之前,页岩气态烃产率高于泥岩的,最高相差43.06 mL/g,模拟温度继续升高后,泥岩气态烃产率超过页岩的;泥岩和页岩在350℃达到产油高峰,页岩总产油率比泥岩的高53.25 mg/g;黄铁矿可以显著提高页岩的C₁-C₄产率,并促进C₅的大量裂解,且黄铁矿可促进总油产率的增加,在产油高峰时,最大可增加54.17 mg/g。页岩生烃能力强,黄铁矿对页岩油气的生成具有一定促进作用;在采用原位加热方法开采页岩油气时,高黄铁矿质量分数的富有机质页岩层段是鄂尔多斯盆地延安地区长7段的首选目标。该结果对页岩油气勘探开发选区选层具有指导意义。     

浅海孔底锤击绳索取芯钻探工艺浅析

主要介绍了浅海海域锆钛砂矿勘查中采用孔底锤击绳索取芯钻探工艺的原理、注意事项并简单介绍工程实例。经实践证明该工艺具有较好的使用价值,可以推广到工程钻探中。     

Persistent organic pollutants and histological lesions in Mayan catfish Ariopsis assimilis from the Bay of Chetumal, Mexico

Livers of catfish (Ariopsis assimilis) from the Bay of Chetumal were analyzed for organochlorine compounds and hydrocarbons as part of a study to diagnose the environmental health of the Bay after a catfish mass mortality that occurred in 1996. The presence of histological lesions in several organs of the fish as result of chemical exposure was also evaluated. The concentrations of organic pollutants found in the Bay may be considered high if compared to the levels reported for sites affected by chemical pollution. High prevalences of cellular alteration histopathologies were found in liver, including hepatic tumors. The presence of some lesions may be related statistically to environmental pollution in the Bay, specially with chlorinated compounds.     

Rare Earth Element Enrichments in the Elk Creek Carbonatite

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