The future of solar physics

The future of solar physics is founded on the existing fundamental unsolved problems in stellar physics. Thus, for instance, the physics of stellar interiors has been called into serious question by the very low-measured neutrino flux. The ⁷¹Ga neutrino detection experiment is the next step in unravelling this mystery. If that experiment should find the expected neutrino flux from the basic p-p reaction in the Sun, then astrophysics is in a difficult situation, because the most likely explanation for the low neutrino flux found in the ³⁷Cl experiment would be an error in our calculation of the opacity or an error in our understanding of the elemental abundances in stellar interiors, with serious implications for present ideas on stellar structure and the age of the galaxy.The new methods of helioseismology, for probing the interior of the Sun, have already found the primordial rapid rotation of the central core. The forthcoming world-wide helioseismology observing network will permit fuller exploitation of the method, promising to provide the first direct sounding of the interior of a star, hitherto known to us only through theoretical inference and the discrepant neutrino emission.The activity of all stars involves much the same phenomena as make up the activity of the Sun. The effects are too complex, and too foreign to the familiar dynamics in the terrestrial laboratory, to be deciphered by theoretical effort alone. It has become clear through the observational and theoretical work of the past decade or two that much of the essential dynamics of the activity of the atmosphere takes place on scales of the order of 10² km. Thus, an essential step in developing the physics of stellar activity will be the Solar Optical Telescope (presently planned by NASA to be launched early in the next decade) to permit a microscopic examination of the surface of the Sun to study the source of the action. The activity and X-ray emission of other stars depend on much the same effects, so that the study is essential to determining the significance of the X-ray emission from other stars.This work was supported in part by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under grant NGL-14-001-001.     

URANIUM DISTRIBUTION and “EXCESSIVE” U-He AGES IN IRON METEORITIC TROILITE

Uranium was measured by fission track analysis in meteoritic troilite and graphite. The distribution is extremely heterogeneous, with a few high-U grains dominating the total abundances. U/He ages cannot be estimated from such a distribution pattern, and therefore previously reported excessive ages are not valid.     

Are natural hazards temporally random?

The paper employs statistical hypothesis tests to explore the question of whether natural hazards (hail and tornadoes being considered here) are or are not intertemporally random. The answer to this question, at least for these two hazards, is surprising and has important policy implications: hazards appear to be more likely in year t if an event was experienced in year t?1: hence, apparent ‘Gambler's Fallacy’ behaviour on the part of farmers and others may indeed be rational. Should this result hold for a full range of climate-related hazard types. as we suspect, hundreds of millions of dollars of crop loss and other damages may be preventable (e.g., rotating to frost-resistant crops if past events suggest greater than usual likelihood of early or late frost). The degree of positive serial correlation is also seen to vary a great deal regionally, with individuals in some states being unable to benefit from knowledge of prior hazard occurrence.     

Zonal Differences in Jupiter's Atmosphere from Continuum CCD Photometry of Its Disk

Based on our 1997 observations with a CCD camera and narrow-band filters attached to the 1-m Assy Obsev vatory telescope, we extensively study the latitudinal variations in limb darkening and normal albedo on Jupiter's disk at wavelengths of 387, 445, 502, 619, and 702 nm. In addition, we carried out observations in 1998 with broad-band red, green, and blue filters. Apart from a general regularity—the increase in darkening coefficient with normal albedo of Jupiter's cloud cover—there is an appreciable scatter of darkening coefficients for the same albedo, which is most pronounced in the ultraviolet. This scatter may result from differences in the optical depth of the aerosol haze above the clouds. The lack of any wavelength dependence of the darkening coefficients is confirmed for Jupiter's polar regions, while at other latitudes, they decrease with decreasing wavelength.     

On the Moment Method for the Modeling of Cloud Microphysics in Rarefied Turbulent Atmospheres: II. Stochastic Coagulation

The previously proposed (Rodin, 2002) method for calculating the microphysical properties of spatially inhomogeneous rarefied aerosol media with mixing using the lowest-order moments of the size distribution is generalized to particle coagulation. We show that when the problem is formulated in terms of moments, all of the solutions admitted by the stochastic coagulation equation lie within a narrow range whose boundaries can be determined by means of quadratic programming. We discuss the choice of an optimal solution within this range and compare the moment method with the results of our computations by the classical finite-difference method using a model of photochemical aerosols in Titan's atmosphere as an example. The moment method allows the efficiency of microphysical computations to be significantly increased by using precomputed low-dimension interpolation tables. It can be used to construct self-consistent models for the globular circulation of planetary atmospheres.     

Gravitational collapse and equilibrium conditions of a toroidal vortex with thermal pressure

We found the equilibrium conditions for a self-gravitating toroidal vortex by taking thermal pressure into account. These conditions are shown to significantly differ from those for a disk or a sphere. The evolution of a thin vortex turns it into a compact vortex that loses mechanical stability for low masses at a polytropic index γ<4/3 but retains stability for sufficiently high masses and densities determined by the velocity circulation in the vortex.