What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate

The records concerning the number, sizes, and positions of sunspots provide a direct means of characterizing solar activity over nearly 400 years. Sunspot numbers are strongly correlated with modern measures of solar activity including: 10.7-cm radio flux, total irradiance, X-ray flares, sunspot area, the baseline level of geomagnetic activity, and the flux of galactic cosmic rays. The Group Sunspot Number provides information on 27 sunspot cycles, far more than any of the modern measures of solar activity, and enough to provide important details about long-term variations in solar activity or “Space Climate.” The sunspot record shows: 1) sunspot cycles have periods of 131± 14 months with a normal distribution; 2) sunspot cycles are asymmetric with a fast rise and slow decline; 3) the rise time from minimum to maximum decreases with cycle amplitude; 4) large amplitude cycles are preceded by short period cycles; 5) large amplitude cycles are preceded by high minima; 6) although the two hemispheres remain linked in phase, there are significant asymmetries in the activity in each hemisphere; 7) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is anti-correlated with the cycle period; 8) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is positively correlated with the amplitude of the cycle after the next; 9) there has been a significant secular increase in the amplitudes of the sunspot cycles since the end of the Maunder Minimum (1715); and 10) there is weak evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. These characteristics indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 145 ± 30 in 2010 while the following cycle should have a maximum of about 70 ± 30 in 2023.     

Source rates and ion recycling rates for Na and K in Mercury's atmosphere

The supply rates of Na and K to the atmosphere of Mercury by processes acting on the extreme surface—thermal vaporization, photon-stimulated desorption (PSD), and ion-sputtering—are limited by the rates at which atoms can be supplied to the extreme surface by diffusion from inside the regolith grains. Supply rates to the atmosphere are further regulated by ion retention and by gardening rates that supply new grains to the surface. We consider the limits on supply of sodium and potassium atoms to the atmosphere, and rates of photoion recycling to the surface. Thermal vaporization rates are severely limited by the ability of atoms to diffuse to the surface of the grain. Therefore, the diffusion-limited thermal vaporization rates on Mercury's surface are comparable to or less than the PSD rates. Ion sputtering is primarily due to highly ionized heavy ions, even though they represent a small fraction of the solar wind. We have shown that up to 60% of the Na photoions are deposited on the surface of Mercury. Ion recycling to the surface can have a long-term effect on the regolith abundance if an average recycling pattern persists such that more ions return to a particular area than are launched there. It is unknown whether the formation of latitude bands of >100% ion retention persist on average despite a rapidly changing magnetosphere. The total exospheric column of sodium observed at Mercury between 1997 to 2003 varied by a factor of 2-3 from perihelion to aphelion.     

Evolution of cold shock-bounded slabs

The stability and evolution of cold, shock-bounded slabs is studied using numerical hydrodynamic simulations. We confirm the analysis of Vishniac (1994) [ApJ, 428, 186], who showed that such slabs are unstable if they are perturbed by a displacement larger than their width. The growth rate of this nonlinear thin shell instability (NTSI) is found to increase with decreasing wavelength, in qualitative agreement with Vishniac's analysis. The NTSI saturates when the bending angle becomes large and the growth in the width of the slab pinches off the perturbation. After saturation, the slab remains greatly extended with an average density much less than the original slab density, supported primarily by supersonic turbulence within the slab. Linear perturbations are also found to be unstable in that they can lead to turbulent flow within the slab, although this response to linear perturbations is distinct from, and much less violent than the NTSI.Richard McCray     

2060 Chiron back to a minimum of brightness

The results of photometric observations of comet/asteroid 2060 Chiron at the Observatório do Pico dos Dias (Brazil-OPD) and the Observatoire de Haute-Provence (France-OHP) during 1994 and 1995 are presented. The analysis of the data shows a decrease of 2060 Chiron brightness from its peak values of 1988–1991. The absolute magnitude, H_v, varies from a maximum of 6.6 in February 1994 up to a minimum of 6.8 in June 1995. Therefore 2060 Chiron is back to a minimum of activity close to that of 1983–1985. The slope parameter G is found to be G = 0.71 ± 0.15. It is suggested that the H-G magnitude system, generally adopted to present 2060 Chiron brightness, is not the most appropriate due to the cometary activity of this object.     

measurement of noise power spectrum in photon counting PMT's and the effect of the observed (1/f) noise on astronomical photometry

In astronomical photometry, the sensitivity of observations is limited by the dark counts of the photomultiplier tube. In the present work, the effect of dark count noise in photon counting systems is investigated by theory and experimental measurements. Dark counts are considered to be originating from two sources, namely: dc fluctuations and random pulses.Experimental measurements were carried out to determine noise effects in different operating regions of noise dominance. The results provide strong evidence that: in normal operating mode, where the effect of random pulses is dominant, dark counts do not follow Poisson statistics. The observed noise shows strong (1/f) power spectrum, where the observed noise power is found to increase with time of observation.The results are important in photon counting systems operating under dark count limited mode. The conclusions drawn can be useful in obtaining more accurate error estimates and in assessing astronomical photometric observations and data reduction techniques.     

Elm bark beetle in Holocene peat deposits and the northwest European elm decline

The elm decline of 5000 ¹⁴C yr ago has been the most widely discussed phenomenon in post‐glacial vegetation history. This pan‐European reduction of elm populations, echoed in the decimation of elmwoods in Europe during the twentieth century, has attracted a series of interrelated hypotheses involving climate change, human activity, disease and soil deterioration. The elm bark beetle (Scolytus scolytus L.) is an essential component of disease explanations. We present evidence for the presence of the beetle over a prolonged period (ca. 7950–4910 yr BP [8800–5660 cal. yr BP]) from a lowland raised mire deposit in northeast Scotland, with its final appearance at this site, and the first and only appearance in another mire of a single scolytid find, around the time of the elm decline. The subfossil S. scolytus finds are not only the first from Scotland, but they also represent the most comprehensive sequence of finds anywhere. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A reanalysis of the light curve of RT Persei with the W-D code

The UBV photometric observations of RT Per, from Sanwal and Chaubey (1981), were analyzed by the Wilson and Devinney code (1971). The light curves include reflection effects that for the first time has been suggested by Dugan (1911). RT Per has a semi-detached configuration where the lower-mass component is in contact with its respective Roche surface. The higher-mass component very nearly fills its Roche lobe. It has the characteristic of an Algol type system. The absolute dimensions for the primary and secondary of this system were calculated from its spectral types and by combining the photometric solution with inferred component radial velocities (Lu, 1990).