Probabilistic spatial risk assessment of heat impacts and adaptations for London

High temperatures and heatwaves can cause large societal impacts by increasing health risks, mortality rates, and personal discomfort. These impacts are exacerbated in cities because of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect, and the high and increasing concentrations of people, assets and economic activities. Risks from high temperatures are now widely recognised but motivation and implementation of proportionate policy responses is inhibited by inadequate quantification of the benefits of adaptation options, and associated uncertainties. This study utilises high spatial resolution probabilistic projections of urban temperatures along with projections of demographic change, to provide a probabilistic risk assessment of heat impacts on urban society. The study focuses on Greater London and the surrounding region, assessing mortality risk, thermal discomfort in residential buildings, and adaptation options within an integrated framework. Climate change is projected to increase future heat-related mortality and residential discomfort. However, adjusting the temperature response function by 1–2 °C, to simulate adaptation and acclimatisation, reduced annual heat related mortality by 32–69 % across the scenarios tested, relative to a no adaptation scenario. Similar benefits of adaptation were seen for residential discomfort. The study also highlights additional benefits in terms of reduced mortality and residential discomfort that mitigating the urban heat island, by reducing albedo and anthropogenic heat emissions, could have.     

Comparison of two different models for pile thermal response test interpretation

Thermal response tests (TRTs) are regularly used to characterise the thermal resistance of borehole heat exchangers and to assess the thermal conductivity of the surrounding ground. It is becoming common to apply the same in situ testing technique to pile heat exchangers, despite international guidance suggesting that TRTs should be limited to hole diameters of 152 mm (6 in.). This size restriction arises from the increased thermal inertia of larger diameter heat exchangers, which invalidates the assumption of a steady state within the concrete needed to interpret the test data by traditional line source analysis techniques. However, new methods of analysis for pile heat exchangers have recently been developed that take account of the transient behaviour of the pile concrete. This paper applies these new methods to data from a multi-stage TRT conducted on a small diameter test pile. The thermal conductivity and thermal resistance determined using this method are then compared with those from traditional analytical approaches based on a line source analysis. Differences between the approaches are discussed, along with the observation that the thermal resistance may not be constant over the different test stages.     

Evaluating Lower Computational Burden Approaches for Calibration of Large Environmental Models

Realistic environmental models used for decision making typically require a highly parameterized approach. Calibration of such models is computationally intensive because widely used parameter estimation approaches require individual forward runs for each parameter adjusted. These runs construct a parameter-to-observation sensitivity, or Jacobian, matrix used to develop candidate parameter upgrades. Parameter estimation algorithms are also commonly adversely affected by numerical noise in the calculated sensitivities within the Jacobian matrix, which can result in unnecessary parameter estimation iterations and less model-to-measurement fit. Ideally, approaches to reduce the computational burden of parameter estimation will also increase the signal-to-noise ratio related to observations influential to the parameter estimation even as the number of forward runs decrease. In this work a simultaneous increments, an iterative ensemble smoother (IES), and a randomized Jacobian approach were compared to a traditional approach that uses a full Jacobian matrix. All approaches were applied to the same model developed for decision making in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain, USA. Both the IES and randomized Jacobian approach achieved a desirable fit and similar parameter fields in many fewer forward runs than the traditional approach; in both cases the fit was obtained in fewer runs than the number of adjustable parameters. The simultaneous increments approach did not perform as well as the other methods due to inability to overcome suboptimal dropping of parameter sensitivities. This work indicates that use of highly efficient algorithms can greatly speed parameter estimation, which in turn increases calibration vetting and utility of realistic models used for decision making.     

The hydrography and biology of a bloom of the coccolithophorid Emiliania huxleyi in the northern North Sea

In June/July 1994 a study was made of a small bloom of the coccolithophorid Emiliania huxleyi in an area of the North Sea to the east of the Shetland Islands. Observations on the hydrography of the study area indicated the bloom was associated with Atlantic water and was confined to an area in which a stable shallow mixed layer had formed. There was no evidence to suggest association of horizontal physical structure with the bloom development. High cell densities of >1– cells dm⁻³, together with low concentrations of PIC (<50 μg dm⁻³) and detached liths (2– liths cm⁻³) indicated that the bloom was studied at an early stage of development. Biochemical and physiological observations indicated active growth was taking place. The results presented are discussed in comparison with previous studies carried out in both oceanic and shelf seas.     

Tethyan, Mediterranean, and Pacific analogues for the Neoproterozoic–Paleozoic birth and development of peri-Gondwanan terranes and their transfer to Laurentia and Laurussia

Modern Tethyan, Mediterranean, and Pacific analogues are considered for several Appalachian, Caledonian, and Variscan terranes (Carolina, West and East Avalonia, Oaxaquia, Chortis, Maya, Suwannee, and Cadomia) that originated along the northern margin of Neoproterozoic Gondwana. These terranes record a protracted geological history that includes: (1) 1 Ga (Carolina, Avalonia, Oaxaquia, Chortis, and Suwannee) or 2 Ga (Cadomia) basement; (2) 750–600 Ma arc magmatism that diachronously switched to rift magmatism between 590 and 540 Ma, accompanied by development of rift basins and core complexes, in the absence of collisional orogenesis; (3) latest Neoproterozoic–Cambrian separation of Avalonia and Carolina from Gondwana leading to faunal endemism and the development of bordering passive margins; (4) Ordovician transport of Avalonia and Carolina across Iapetus terminating in Late Ordovician–Early Silurian accretion to the eastern Laurentian margin followed by dispersion along this margin; (5) Siluro-Devonian transfer of Cadomia across the Rheic Ocean; and (6) Permo-Carboniferous transfer of Oaxaquia, Chortis, Maya, and Suwannee during the amalgamation of Pangea. Three potential models are provided by more recent tectonic analogues: (1) an “accordion” model based on the orthogonal opening and closing of Alpine Tethys and the Mediterranean; (2) a “bulldozer” model based on forward-modelling of Australia during which oceanic plateaus are dispersed along the Australian plate margin; and (3) a “Baja” model based on the Pacific margin of North America where the diachronous replacement of subduction by transform faulting as a result of ridge–trench collision has been followed by rifting and the transfer of Baja California to the Pacific Plate. Future transport and accretion along the western Laurentian margin may mimic that of Baja British Columbia. Present geological data for Avalonia and Carolina favour a transition from a “Baja” model to a “bulldozer” model. By analogy with the eastern Pacific, we name the oceanic plates off northern Gondwana: Merlin (≡Farallon), Morgana (≡Pacific), and Mordred (≡Kula). If Neoproterozoic subduction was towards Gondwana, application of this combined model requires a total rotation of East Avalonia and Carolina through 180° either during separation (using a western Transverse Ranges model), during accretion (using a Baja British Columbia “train wreck” model), or during dispersion (using an Australia “bulldozer” model). On the other hand, Siluro-Devonian orthogonal transfer (“accordion” model) from northern Africa to southern Laurussia followed by a Carboniferous “Baja” model appears to best fit the existing data for Cadomia. Finally, Oaxaquia, Chortis, Maya, and Suwannee appear to have been transported along the margin of Gondwana until it collided with southern Laurentia on whose margin they were stranded following the breakup of Pangea. Forward modeling of a closing Mediterranean followed by breakup on the African margin may provide a modern analogue. These actualistic models differ in their dictates on the initial distribution of the peri-Gondwanan terranes and can be tested by comparing features of the modern analogues with their ancient tectonic counterparts.     

The Cretaceous Messum igneous complex, S.W. Etendeka, Namibia: reinterpretation in terms of a downsag-cauldron subsidence model

The Messum igneous complex (MIC) lies within the ENE-trending zone of Lower Cretaceous (132 Ma) Damaraland intrusive complexes in Namibia, intruded into Pan-African Damara basement. It is defined by a roughly circular structure 18 km in diameter, the bounding ring fault exposed along the eastern sector. Encircling Messum are the volcanic sequences of the Goboboseb Mountains, comprising a lower basalt series (Tafelkop and Tafelberg types) followed, with intervening basalts, by four voluminous quartz latite (QL) eruptions (Goboboseb and Springbok QL units).Inferred stages of development are: (a) an initial very broad basaltic lava shield, comprising the Tafelberg and Tafelkop basalts, and Messum crater basalts (MCB; possibly ponded in near-vent lava lakes). Embedded within the lower basaltic sequence is a localised rhyolite-dominated eruptive centre (ca. 5 km in diameter), interpreted as a funnel caldera located towards the centre of the MIC. (b) Downsagging, extending northwards from Messum, following the Goboboseb QL eruptions (≥2300 km³). Ponding of overlying basaltic units. (c) Climactic Springbok QL eruption (≥6300 km³) producing further downsag together with the inward radial dip of all volcanic units towards the MIC. Ring fault initiation. (d) Cauldron subsidence emplacement of a granitoid suite, forming the MIC ‘moat’ (area between the ring fault and the core region). (e) Intrusion of gabbroic cone sheets into incompletely solidified granitic melts within the southeastern moat. Resulting hybridisation and magma mingling produced extensive development of heterogeneous granitoid and hybrid dioritic lithologies. (f) Cone sheet intrusions of the eastern gabbros into more highly solidified granitoids of the southeastern moat. (g) Intrusion of thick (1–2 km) western gabbro cone sheets, exhibiting local fine-scale layering, into solidified granitoids, mainly within the western moat. Minor late-stage granitic intrusions. (h) 2–3 Ma quiescent period followed by quartz- and ne-syenite intrusions, and finally basanite dykes, emplaced within the MIC core. Accompanying differential uplift of the core.Uplift/resurgence within the MIC has accompanied intrusion of the moat granitoids and mafic cone sheets, thereby juxtaposing volcanic and intrusive sequences. Phases of both subsidence and uplift have characterised the MIC. The NW Scotland Tertiary central igneous complexes and Messum show evidence of a number of parallel developments, but also important differences. The MIC differs markedly from caldera systems within the western USA and circum-Pacific. Messum is therefore suggested to represent a distinct class of intrusive/extrusive central complex, although probably common in large igneous provinces.     

Capelinhos 1957–1958, Faial, Azores: deposits formed by an emergent surtseyan eruption

The 1957–1958 eruption of Capelinhos, Faial island, Azores, involved three periods of surtseyan, hydromagmatic activity: two in 1957 and one in 1958. Deposits from this eruption are exposed both in sea cliffs cut into the flanks of the tuff cone and more distally >1 km from the vent. Five lithofacies are identified: lithofacies I is composed of even thickness beds with laterally continuous internal stratigraphy and is interpreted to have been formed by fallout. Lithofacies II consists of beds with internally discontinuous lenses, and has sand-wave structures that increase in abundance toward the outer margins of the tuff cone. This lithofacies is interpreted as having been deposited from pyroclastic surges. Lithofacies III is composed of mantle-bedded deposits with laterally discontinuous internal stratigraphy. This lithofacies is interpreted to have been formed by hybrid processes where fallout of tephra occurred simultaneously with pyroclastic surges. In the outer flanks of the tuff cone, lithofacies III grades laterally into fallout beds of lithofacies I. Lithofacies IV consists of alternating beds of coarse ash aggregates and non-aggregated fine ash, and is particularly well developed in distal regions. Some of this facies was formed by fallout. Alternating beds also occur plastered against obstacles up to 2 km from the vent, indicating an origin from wet pyroclastic surges. The orientation of plastered tephra indicates that the surges were deflected by topography as they decelerated. The distinction between surge and fallout in distal regions is uncertain because wind-drifted fallout and decelerating surge clouds can generate similar deposits. Lithofacies V consists of scoria lapilli beds interpreted to be fallout from hawaiian-style fire-fountaining in the later stages of the eruption. Juvenile pyroclasts within hydromagmatic deposits are predominantly poorly vesicular (25–60% of clasts <30% vesicles). However, on both micro- and macroscopic scales, there is a wide range in clast vesicularity (up to 70% vesicles) indicating that, although fragmentation was predominantly hydromagmatic, vesiculation and magmatic-volatile-driven fragmentation operated simultaneously.     

Radar facies of paraglacial barrier systems: coastal New England, USA

Analysis of a large data base of ground-penetrating-radar (GPR) profiles from both natural and developed paraglacial barriers along the coast of New England has allowed identification of eight reflection configurations that characterize this type of mid- to high-latitude coastal environment. Bedrock anchor points yield primarily hyperbolic configurations, whereas glacial anchor points and sediment-source areas are characterized by chaotic, parallel, and tangential-oblique configurations. Beaches and dunes produce predominantly sigmoidal oblique, hummocky, reflection-free, and bounding-surface configurations. Back-barrier sediments may yield basin-fill configurations, but generally include abundant signal-attenuating units.
The GPR data, calibrated with information from cores, were collected across swash-aligned and drift-aligned barriers in a variety of wave- and tidal-energy settings. Application of a 120-MHz antenna, as used in this study, enables portrayal of a range of sedimentary units, from individual bedforms (on single records) to entire barrier elements (using large numbers of intersecting GPR sections), at maximum vertical resolutions that vary between 0·2 m and 0·7 m.
The most important drawback of GPR in the coastal environment is attenuation of the electromagnetic (EM) signal by layers of salt-marsh peat or by brackish or salty groundwater, primarily along barrier edges. This disadvantage is offset by many benefits. Data can be collected at rates of several km per day, making GPR an excellent reconnaissance tool. A core that is used in the calibration of GPR data can be matched with great accuracy to its position on the complementary GPR record, allowing detailed correlation between lithostratigraphy and reflection configuration.