A stochastic model of low flows

A model is developed for annual low flow hydrographs. Its two primary components reflect the fact that hydrologic processes during streamflow rise (function of water input) and recession (function of basin storage) are different. Durations of periods of rise (wet intervals) and recession (dry intervals) are modelled by discrete probability distributions — negative binomial for dry intervals and negative binomial or modified logarithmic series for wet intervals depending on goodness of fit. During wet intervals, the total inflow is modelled by the lognormal distribution and daily amounts are allocated according to a pattern-averaged model. During dry intervals, the flow recedes according to a deterministic-stochastic recession model. The model was applied to three Canadian basins with drainage area ranging from 2210 to 22000 km² to generate 50 realizations of low flow hydrographs. The resulting two standard-error confidence band for the simulated probability distribution of annual minimum 7-day flows enclosed the probability distribution estimated from the observed record. A sensitivity analysis for the three basins revealed that in addition to the recession submodel, the most important submodel is that describing seasonality. The state of the basin at the beginning of the low flow period is of marginal importance and the daily distribution of input is unimportant.     

Kinematic Modeling of Pyroclastic Flows Produced by Gravitational Dome Collapse at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat

Volcanic activity commenced 18 July 1995 at SoufriereHills volcano and has led to the creation of a newlava dome, which has repeatedly collapsed between 1996and 1999 resulting in highly mobile pyroclastic flows. The majority of associated pyroclastic flow phenomenaare consistent with initiation by gravitationalcollapse as blocks fall from oversteepened flanks ofthe new dome. If gravity controls the energy transferof such collapses, then areas likely to be affectedcan be predicted on the basis of topography. We focuson `dense' flows initiated by non-explosive,gravitational collapse (`Merapi-type' pyroclasticflows) and employ a graphical computer model (Flow3D)written to simulate this type of volcanic flow. Theprogram constructs a digital terrain model based upona 3D network of (x, y, z) triplets, which serves as thebasis for the numerical computations. A synthetic domewas added to the topographic model to improve theaccuracy of the simulations. After estimating thesmall number of key adjustable parameters, simulatedflow pathways, runout distances, and velocitiesclosely approximated observed Merapi-type pyroclasticflows on Montserrat. These simulations demonstrate thevalidity of a simple kinematic method to model densepyroclastic flow phenomena. While the simulationspresented here do not elucidate additional physics ofpyroclastic flow phenomena, this type of modeling canbe completed easily and without extensivea priori knowledge of volcano-specific parameters otherthan topography. Accordingly, it may serve as a rapidand inexpensive first-order approach for initialhazard assessment.     

Fitting matrix-valued variogram models by simultaneous diagonalization (Part II: Application)

As an application, we demonstrate a proposed variogram modeling scheme using a spatial data set. Because the scheme relies on a procedure for simultaneously diagonalizing several matrices, we briefly describe the FG and least-squares algorithms. The model obtained by our scheme is used to cokrige the data. In addition, the proposed scheme is compared to more traditional methods.     

Sulfur dioxide and dimethyl sulfide in the central Pacific troposphere

Boundary-layer and free-troposphere measurements of sulfur dioxide, dimethyl sulfide, and carbon disulfide were made during transits of the central and southern Pacific Ocean between Hawaii and Australia. Sulfur dioxide was generally less than 100 pptv and highly variable with no correlation with respect to geographic location or altitude. Dimethyl sulfide in the boundary layer had a concentration range of <10 to 200 pptv. Highest concentrations of DMS were in the equatorial region of the southern hemisphere although the concentrations were dependent on location and meteorological regime. In the region of the Fiji Islands several boundary layer samples had SO₂, DMS, and CS₂. In 1989, additional SO₂ measurements were made between Hawaii and the equator and to the west of Hawaii downwind of the Kilauea volcano plumes.Paper submitted to the 7th International Symposium of the Commission for Atmospheric Chemistry and Global Pollution on the Chemistry of the Global Atmosphere held in Chamrousse, France, from 5 to 11 September 1990.     

Seasonal changes in vocalization during behavior of the Atlantic bottlenose dolphin

Four vocalizations (whistles, buzzes, quacks, and pops) were quantified during three behavioral categories (socializing, traveling, and feeding) of the bottlenose dolphin in the Newport River Estuary, North Carolina. This study tested the hypothesis that specific vocalizations of dolphins in this area are associated with specific behavioral categories during the summer and fall. Approximately twice the total number of vocalizations per unit time occurred during the fall as compared to the summer. Each type of vocalization had a distinctive and consistent acoustical structure. The relative frequency of the different vocalization types was significantly dependent on the behavior of the dolphins. Pops were consistently associated with feeding, quacks with socializing, and buzzes with traveling. Whistles, the most common vocalization, were associated with traveling and feeding during the summer and socializing in the fall. Dolphins spent more time involved in undirected activity (socialization) during the summer but spent more time traveling in search of food and feeding during the fall in preparation for migration out of the estuary and movement south.     

Mobilization of gold into lake sediments from acid and alkaline mineralized environments in the southern Canadian Shield: Gold in lake sediments and natural waters

To be an effective indicator of mineralization in lake sediment surveys within the Canadian Shield, it is desirable that an element migrate in solution or adsorbed on suspensates. Given the low relief and disorganized drainage patterns of this region, dispersal in clastic form in drainage systems is limited and gives rise to erratic distributions. The purpose of this study was to discover whether Au shows significant hydromorphic mobility, which would justify the increasing use that is being made of this element in lake sediments as an indicator for gold mineralization.Waters and lake sediments were collected from Napier Lake, Ontario; PAP Lake, Saskatchewan; and Foster Lake, Manitoba, all of which contain Au-quartz vein mineralization and lie within the glaciated boreal forest zone of the Canadian Shield. In all three areas, profundal lake sediments down-drainage of mineralization contain Au concentrations higher than regional mean concentrations. Significant dissolution and transport of Au was found under oxidizing conditions associated with waters with pH that varied from acid to alkaline. Waters from drill holes penetrating mineralization contain up to 401 ng L⁻¹ Au (note; 1 ng L⁻¹ is equivalent to 1 part per trillion, 10⁻¹²). Surface waters overlying or near mineralization collected from bogs, seeps, ponds and streams contain up to 13 ng L⁻¹. The content of Au in lake waters is lower, with a maximum of 1.1 ng L⁻¹. There is also a detectable quantity of Au present in suspensates. Two samples of particulates (> 1 μm) filtered from lake water have Au equivalent to 0.17 ng L⁻¹ and 0.039 ng L⁻¹. While the contents of Au present in solution or as suspensates in lake and stream water are relatively small, they are sufficient, if precipitated, to generate anomalies in lake sediments. Thus for Reservoir Lake, in the Foster Lake area, water from the principal stream entering the lake carries 0.3 ng L⁻¹ Au. This provides an annual flux which far exceeds that required to generate the 7.3 ppb Au contained in profundal sediments of this lake; a content that is anomalous relative to the regional median content of < 1 ppb Au for lake sediments.Hydrogeochemical prospecting involving analysis for Au is one method for tracing the source of anomalous Au in lake sediments. Collection of 1 L samples without field treatment, followed by extraction of Au into MIBK, then analysis by graphite-furnace atomic absorption spectrophotometry, permits detection levels for Au of 0.5 ng L⁻¹. This is below the contents of Au found in some waters from mineralized areas. A detection limit of 0.3 ng L⁻¹ was obtained using larger water samples.