The 2014 seismic hazard model of the Middle East: overview and results

The Earthquake Model of Middle East (EMME) Project aimed to develop regional scale seismic hazard and risk models uniformly throughout a region extending from the Eastern Mediterranean in the west to the Himalayas in the east and from the Gulf of Oman in the south to the Greater Caucasus in the North; a region which has been continuously devastated by large earthquakes throughout the history. The 2014 Seismic Hazard Model of Middle East (EMME-SHM14) was developed with the contribution of several institutions from ten countries. The present paper summarizes the efforts towards building a homogeneous seismic hazard model of the region and highlights some of the main results of this model. An important aim of the project was to transparently communicate the data and methods used and to obtain reproducible results. By doing so, the use of the model and results will be accessible by a wide community, further support the mitigation of seismic risks in the region and facilitate future improvements to the seismic hazard model. To this end all data, results and methods used are made available through the web-portal of the European Facilities for Earthquake Hazard and Risk (www.efehr.org).     

Evaluation of the possibility for phytoplankton monitoring frequency reduction in the coastal waters of the Community of Valencia, in the scope of the Water Framework Directive

The Water Framework Directive, under the European Legislation, requires that all European waters, should reach a good ecological status by 2015. To achieve this goal, a phytoplankton monitoring network with monthly water samplings was established to evaluate the ecological quality, in the coastal waters of the Community of Valencia, and the collected data have allowed us to study the efficiency of the monthly campaigns of the monitoring network. With the results obtained in this research, we have designed a new monitoring strategy for the coastal waters of Valencia that for certain water bodies can mean lower sampling frequency. The new monitoring policy provides results as reliable as the previous strategy and allows a precise ecological classification of water bodies at a lower cost. The methodologies we have developed can be used in other monitoring networks and are not limited by geographic location or by the type of water body.     

Self-potential global tomography including topographic effects

This paper is an extension of a previous study, in which the principles of self-potential ground surface tomography were outlined. The new arguments which are here set forth are the proper accounting for the topographic effects and a robust approach to global 3D tomography. The 2D case is initially considered in order to facilitate a full understanding of the new method. In order to gauge the topographic distortions, the concepts of slope effect and surface regularization are introduced, as suitable means to compute point by point correction factors of the measured self-potential data, prior to the recognition of the tomographic images of the primary and induced electric sources underground. The tomographic approach is then developed by introducing again the concepts of the scanning function and of the charge occurrence probability function, which were amply dealt with in the previous paper. The new approach to 3D global tomography means here the composition of charge occurrence probability functions related to any two orthogonal surface components of the natural electric field, in order to account fully for the total surface component of the self-potential field and hence to elicit the greatest amount of information. Two field examples are presented to show the full effectiveness of the proposed method. They refer, respectively, to a near-surface investigation for archaeological purposes and to a very deep investigation in an active volcanic area.     

A performance‐based framework for adaptive seismic aftershock risk assessment

Operative seismic aftershock risk forecasting can be particularly useful for rapid decision‐making in the presence of an ongoing sequence. In such a context, limit state first‐excursion probabilities (risk) for the forecasting interval (a day) can represent the potential for progressive state of damage in a structure. This work lays out a performance‐based framework for adaptive aftershock risk assessment in the immediate post‐mainshock environment. A time‐dependent structural performance variable is adopted in order to measure the cumulative damage in a structure. A set of event‐dependent fragility curves as a function of the first‐mode spectral acceleration for a prescribed limit state is calculated by employing back‐to‐back nonlinear dynamic analyses. An epidemic‐type aftershock sequence model is employed for estimating the spatio‐temporal evolution of aftershocks. The event‐dependent fragility curves for a given limit state are then integrated together with the probability distribution of aftershock spectral acceleration based on the epidemic‐type aftershock sequence aftershock hazard. The daily probability of limit state first‐excursion is finally calculated as a weighted combination of the sequence of limit state probabilities conditioned on the number of aftershocks. As a numerical example, daily aftershock risk is calculated for the L'Aquila 2009 aftershock sequence (central Italy). A representative three‐story reinforced concrete frame with infill panels, which has cyclic strength and stiffness degradation, is used in order to evaluate the progressive damage. It is observed that the proposed framework leads to a sound forecasting of limit state first‐excursion in the structure for two limit states of significant damage and near collapse. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geology,Geochemistry and Re–Os systematics of manganese deposits from the Santa Rosalía Basin and adjacent areas in Baja California Sur,México

The manganese ores in the Santa Rosalía region, western Mexico, are mainly stratiform horizons or mantos, constrained to the initial stages of sedimentary cycles of the Miocene Boléo Formation. The manganese mineralization is generally restricted to isolated paleo-basins and related to NW–SE faults formed during the early stages of the opening of the Gulf of California. Jasper, Fe, and Mn oxides associated to the NW–SE structures may represent feeder zones for the mineralized system. The manganese oxide minerals include pyrolusite, cryptomelane, todorokite, hollandite, jacobsite, and pyrochroite. Trace elements in the manganese ores indicate a hydrothermal origin for the deposits of the Santa Rosalía area. Rare earth elements (REE) patterns obtained for manganese minerals from the Lucifer and El Gavilán deposits also support a hydrothermal origin, whereas the middle REE enrichment observed in samples from the Boléo district indicates mixing between hydrothermal and hydrogenous sources. Osmium and rhenium concentrations of the manganese minerals range between 33–173 ppt and 0.14–89 ppb, respectively. The initial ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os ratios in the manganese oxides from Lucifer and the Boléo district range between 0.43 to 0.51 and 0.70 to 0.74, respectively. These ratios are different from seawater at 7 Ma (0.84–0.89), which suggests important contributions of osmium from underlying rocks such as the Miocene volcanic rocks and the Cretaceous quartz–monzonite basement. Field evidence, manganese oxide mineralogy coupled with major and trace element geochemistry and Re–Os systematics support a hydrothermal origin for the manganese deposits from the Santa Rosalía region. The ore deposition style indicates an exhalative-intraformational environment restricted to isolated basins in a diagenetic stage related to the initial evolution of the Gulf of California.     

The January 10, 1997 Pozzano landslide, Sorrento Peninsula, Italy

From 1997 to 1999, a huge number of slides, often turning into extremely rapid debris-earth flows, repeatedly affected the late Quaternary volcaniclastic deposits mantling the carbonate slopes of Campania region, Italy. The Sorrento Peninsula was the epicentral district of the 1997 regional slope-instability crisis. Some hundred shallow mass movements took place during January 1997 in this area. These were the last episode of a long series of slope failure events dating back to mid-18th century. Results from geological and geomorphologic surveys are presented. Landslide mechanism and triggering factors are analysed for the most important mass movement, which occurred during the January 9-11, 1997, regional event. On January 10, 1997, at about 8:15 PM, a rainfall-induced debris slide-debris flow occurred at Pozzano (province of Naples), mainly affecting the 79 AD pyroclastic products. Following a J-path, the landslide destroyed a private house and invaded the State Road no. 145. This event resulted in four deaths, 22 persons injured and road closure for about 2 months. There was less than 200 mm of rainfall in the 72-h period prior to the landslide, although intense precipitation had occurred during a preceding 4-month period. However, the slope failure event was not preceded by an extreme short-term antecedent rainfall, as already noticed in previous landslides of this type in Campania. Finally, following a preliminary geotechnical characterization of volcaniclastic soils, a slope-stability back analysis was carried out, which adopted the classical infinite slope scheme. This analysis gave further evidence of the role played by pore pressure in reducing the overall shear strength of pyroclastic soils.     

Three‐dimensional to two‐dimensional cross‐strata transition in the lower Pleistocene Catanzaro tidal strait transgressive succession (southern Italy)

Sandstone tidal cross‐strata are the predominant sedimentary feature of strait‐fill stratigraphic successions. However, although widely described in numerous studies, tidal strait‐fill two‐dimensional and three‐dimensional cross‐strata have rarely been reported to occur in discrete intervals which are laterally adjacent or vertically stacked, and the meaning of this stratigraphic architecture has not yet been fully investigated. Understanding of the processes responsible for changes in the internal features of modern and ancient tidal bedforms is essential in order to predict lateral and vertical heterogeneities in analogous reservoir strata. This facies‐based study aims to interpret the three‐dimensional to two‐dimensional cross‐strata transition observed in the lower Pleistocene mixed siliciclastic/bioclastic sandstone filling the Catanzaro Strait, in southern Italy, during a continuous phase of tectonically driven marine transgression. Tidal cross‐strata disappear in the uppermost interval of the studied succession, where mudstone strata prevail. This stratigraphic trend is interpreted as the evidence of an important change in the tidal strait hydrodynamics due to a phase of relative sea‐level rise. At the beginning of the transgression, three‐dimensional tidal dunes migrated throughout the ca 3 to 4 km wide and ca 30 km long, WNW–ESE‐oriented Catanzaro Strait, due to strong tidal currents amplified through the seaway and flowing in semi‐diurnal phase opposition. As the intermediate phase of transgression enlarged the seaway width, the tidal current strength decreased as tidal water exchange occurred over a larger cross‐sectional area. The progressive reduction of the bed shear stress modified three‐dimensional tidal dunes into an extensive two‐dimensional bedform field. At the end of the transgression, the further widening of the Catanzaro Strait into a ca 10 to 12 km wide marine passageway changed the tidally dominated strait into a non‐tidal open shelf. The results of this research suggest the presence of a ‘critical cross‐sectional area’ in the narrowest strait‐centre zone which controls the activation and deactivation of tidal current amplification along a marine seaway.     

Diagnostics,deterioration and provenance of stone materials from the Jefferson Page tomb (Non-Catholic Cemetery of Rome,Italy)

The monumental tomb of Jefferson Page, an officer in the American Navy, was built in 1899 and is located in the Non-Catholic Cemetery of Rome (Italy). This study presents complementary diagnostic studies characterizing the stone of the tomb and the weathering and decay phenomena it has undergone. The monument is made of a single type of whitish marble, variously veined and often covered with black patinas. Petrographic, isotopic and LA-ICP-MS analyses attribute the marble to the Carrara district. SEM/EDS and microbiological analyses indicate that the black patinas are due to cyanobacterial autotrophic and fungin heterotrophic colonization. Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy revealed the presence of organic material on some portions of the tomb, due to undocumented restoration carried out with a mixture of marble powder and a polyester resin.     

First <Superscript>13</Superscript>C/<Superscript>12</Superscript>C isotopic characterisation of volcanic plume CO<Subscript>2</Subscript>

We describe analytical details and uncertainty evaluation of a simple technique for the measurement of the carbon isotopic composition of CO₂ in volcanic plumes. Data collected at Solfatara and Vulcano, where plumes are fed by fumaroles which are accessible for direct sampling, were first used to validate the technique. For both volcanoes, the plume-derived carbon isotopic compositions are in good agreement with the fumarolic compositions, thus providing confidence on the method, and allowing its application at volcanoes where the volcanic component is inaccessible to direct sampling. As a notable example, we applied the same method to Mount Etna where we derived a δ¹³C of volcanic CO₂ between −0.9 ± 0.27‰ and −1.41 ± 0.27‰ (Bocca Nuova and Voragine craters). The comparison of our measurements to data reported in previous work highlights a temporal trend of systematic increase of δ¹³C values of Etna CO₂ from ~ −4‰, in the 1970’s and the 1980’s, to ~ −1‰ at the present time (2009). This shift toward more positive δ¹³C values matches a concurrent change in magma composition and an increase in the eruption frequency and energy. We discuss such variations in terms of two possible processes: magma carbonate assimilation and carbon isotopic fractionation due to magma degassing along the Etna plumbing system. Finally, our results highlight potential of systematic measurements of the carbon isotopic composition of the CO₂ emitted by volcanic plumes for a better understanding of volcanic processes and for improved surveillance of volcanic activity.