Spatially Clustered Associations in Health Related Geospatial Data

Overlaying maps using a desktop GIS is often the first step of a multivariate spatial analysis. The potential of this operation has increased considerably as data sources and Web services to manipulate them are becoming widely available via the Internet. Standards from the OGC enable such geospatial ‘mashups’ to be seamless and user driven, involving discovery of thematic data. The user is naturally inclined to look for spatial clusters and ‘correlation’ of outcomes. Using classical cluster detection scan methods to identify multivariate associations can be problematic in this context, because of a lack of control on or knowledge about background populations. For public health and epidemiological mapping, this limiting factor can be critical but often the focus is on spatial identification of risk factors associated with health or clinical status. In this article we point out that this association itself can ensure some control on underlying populations, and develop an exploratory scan statistic framework for multivariate associations. Inference using statistical map methodologies can be used to test the clustered associations. The approach is illustrated with a hypothetical data example and an epidemiological study on community MRSA. Scenarios of potential use for online mashups are introduced but full implementation is left for further research.     

The hierarchical structure of glacial climatic oscillations: interactions between ice-sheet dynamics and climate

Abrupt climatic oscillations around the North Atlantic have been identified recently in Greenland ice cores as well as in North Atlantic marine sediment cores. The good correlation between the Dansgaard-Oeschger events in the ice and the Heinrich events in the ocean suggests that climate, in the North Atlantic region, underwent several massive reorganizations in the last glacial period. A characteristic feature of these events seems to be their hierarchical structure. Every 7 to 10-thousand years, when the temperature is close to its minimum, the ice-sheet undergoes a massive iceberg discharge. This Heinrich event is then followed by an abrupt warming, then by several other oscillations, each one lasting between one and two thousand years. These secondary oscillations do not have a clear signature in marine sediments but constitute most of the Dansgaard-Oeschger events found in the ice. Here we use a simplified model coupling an ice-sheet and an ocean basin, in order to illustrate how the interactions between these two components can lead to such a hierarchical structure. The ice-sheet model exhibits internal oscillations composed of ice-sheet growing phases and basal ice melting phases that induce massive iceberg discharges. These massive fresh water inputs in the ocean stop for a moment the thermohaline circulation, enhancing the temperature contrast between low- and high-latitudes. Just after this event, the thermohaline circulation restarts and an abrupt warming of high-latitude regions is observed. For some parameter values, these warmer temperatures have in turn some influence on the ice-sheet, inducing secondary oscillations similar to those found in paleoclimatic records. Although the mechanism presented here may be too grossly simplified, it nevertheless underlines the potential importance of the coupling between ice-sheet dynamics and oceanic thermohaline circulation on the structure of the climatic records during the last glacial period.     

Simulating bubble number density of rhyolitic pumices from Plinian eruptions: constraints from fast decompression experiments

Decompression experiments of a crystal-free rhyolitic liquid with ≈ 6.6 wt. % H₂O were carried out at a pressure range from 250 MPa to 30–75 MPa in order to characterize effects of magma ascent rate and temperature on bubble nucleation kinetics, especially on the bubble number density (BND, the number of bubbles produced per unit volume of liquid). A first series of experiments at 800°C and fast decompression rates (10–90 MPa/s) produced huge BNDs (≈ 2 × 10¹⁴ m⁻³ at 10 MPa/s ; ≈ 2 × 10¹⁵ m⁻³ at 90 MPa/s), comparable to those in natural silicic pumices from Plinian eruptions (10¹⁵–10¹⁶ m⁻³). A second series of experiments at 700°C and 1 MPa/s produced BNDs (≈ 9×10¹² m⁻³) close to those observed at 800°C and 1 MPa/s (≈ 6 × 10¹² m⁻³), showing that temperature has an insignificant effect on BNDs at a given decompression rate. Our study strengthens the theory that the BNDs are good markers of the decompression rate of magmas in volcanic conduits, irrespective of temperature. Huge number densities of small bubbles in natural silicic pumices from Plinian eruptions imply that a major nucleation event occurs just below the fragmentation level, at which the decompression rate of ascending magmas is a maximum (≥ 1 MPa/s).     

Application of Artificial Neural Network Model for the Prediction of Suspended Sediment Load in the Large River

Water Resources - Predicting the Suspended Sediment Load (SSL) of the river is a very significant and challenging task. Being a non-linearity in the SSL data, it requires a non-linear method to get...     

Holocene history of fire,vegetation and land use from the central Pyrenees (France)

Located on a mountain pass in the west-central Pyrenees, the Col d'Ech peat bog provides a Holocene fire and vegetation record based upon nine ¹⁴C (AMS) dates. We aim to compare climate-driven versus human-driven fire regimes in terms of frequency, fire episodes distribution, and impact on vegetation. Our results show the mid-Holocene (8500–5500 cal yr BP) to be characterized by high fire frequency linked with drier and warmer conditions. However, fire occurrences appear to have been rather stochastic as underlined by a scattered chronological distribution. Wetter and colder conditions at the mid-to-late Holocene transition (4000–3000 cal yr BP) led to a decrease in fire frequency, probably driven by both climate and a subsequent reduction in human land use. On the contrary, from 3000 cal yr BP, fire frequency seems to be driven by agro-pastoral activities with a very regular distribution of events. During this period fire was used as a prominent agent of landscape management.     

Slip rate of trench‐parallel normal faulting along the Mejillones Fault (Atacama Fault System): Relationships with the northern Chile subduction and implications for seismic hazards

The recent tectonics of the arid northern Chile Andean western forearc is characterized by trench‐parallel normal faults within the Atacama Fault System (AFS). Since the 1995‐Mw 8.1 Antofagasta earthquake, the mechanism driving this recent and localized extension is considered to be associated with the seismic cycle within the subduction zone. Analyzing morphotectonic patterns along these faults allows examining the seismic potential associated with the subduction zone. Using field Digital Elevation Models and in situ‐produced cosmogenic ¹⁰Be, we determined a 0.2 mm/a long‐term slip rate along the Mejillones Fault, one of the most prominent structures within the AFS. This result suggests that the AFS corresponds to slow slip rate faults despite the rapid subduction context. However, the size of coseismic slips observed along the AFS faults suggests that larger subduction earthquakes (Mw > 8.1) may occur episodically in the area.     

Méthodes de quantification des transferts de matiére par les fluides dans les roches métamorphiques déformées

Résumé

Les transferts de matière par les fluides se marquent dans les roches métamorphiques par des différenciations chimiques et minéralogiques. Une approche quantitative des relations entre transferts de matière et déformation passe par l’étude de ces différenciations dans des structures présentant soit un gradient continu de l’intensité de la déformation, soit des sites structuraux distincts. Dans ces structures, la roche initiale est souvent préservée dans des zones protégées. Des bilans de matière, par comparaison de cette analyse initiale avec les différentes roches déformées sont effectuées. Une référence chimique, minéralogique ou volumique est choisie dans des diagrammes où sont reportés les gains ou les pertes des constituants de la roche pour les différentes valeurs possibles de son changement de volume. Les quantités de matière transférée et les variations de volume sont alors lues directement dans les diagrammes ou calculées par des relations générales. Dans des diagrammes de variation chimique, ces résultats sont reportés pour chaque roche transformée, en fonction d’un paramètre de différenciation : intensité de la déformation, de la transfonnation chimique ou minéralogique, position dans la structure de déformation. Suivant les cas, ces diagrammes donnent l’évolution de la mobilité des éléments au cours de la déformation ou de la différenciation chimique, les gradients de changement de volume ou les variations de masse dans la structure de déformation étudiée. Des exemples d’un bilan minéralogique et volumique entre flancs et charnière d’un pli, d’un bilan chimique dans une zone de cisaillement et de l’écriture d’une réaction métamorphique sont présentés. Les différentes étapes d’une approche quantitative des relations entre transfert de matière et déformation sont récapitulés.