A method for surface modeling of land cover change (SMLC) is developed on the basis of establishing transition probability matrixes between land cover types and HLZ types. SMLC is used to simulate land cover scenarios of China for the years 2039, 2069 and 2099, for which HLZ scenarios are first simulated in terms of HadCM3 climatic scenarios that are downscaled in zonal model of spatial climate change in China. This paper also analyzes spatial distribution of land cover types, area change and mean center shift of each land cover type, ecotope diversity, and patch connectivity under the land cover scenarios. The results show that cultivated land would decrease and woodland would expand greatly with climatic change, which coincides with consequences expected by implementation of Grain-for-Green policy. Nival area would shrink, and desertification area would expand at a comparatively slow rate in future 100 years. Climate change would generally cause less ecotope diversity and more patch connectivity. Ecosystems in China would have a pattern of beneficial cycle after efficient ecological conservation and restoration. However, if human activities would exceed regulation capacity of ecosystems themselves, the ecosystems in China might deteriorate more seriously. 相似文献
Extreme hydrologic responses following wildfires can lead to floods and debris flows with costly economic and societal impacts. Process-based hydrologic and geomorphic models used to predict the downstream impacts of wildfire must account for temporal changes in hydrologic parameters related to the generation and subsequent routing of infiltration-excess overland flow across the landscape. However, we lack quantitative relationships showing how parameters change with time-since-burning, particularly at the watershed scale. To assess variations in best-fit hydrologic parameters with time, we used the KINEROS2 hydrological model to explore temporal changes in hillslope saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ksh) and channel hydraulic roughness (nc) following a wildfire in the upper Arroyo Seco watershed (41.5 km2), which burned during the 2009 Station fire in the San Gabriel Mountains, California, USA. This study explored runoff-producing storms between 2008 and 2014 to infer watershed hydraulic properties by calibrating the model to observations at the watershed outlet. Modelling indicates Ksh is lowest in the first year following the fire and then increases at an average rate of approximately 4.2 mm/h/year during the first 5 years of recovery. The estimated values for Ksh in the first year following the fire are similar to those obtained in previous studies on smaller watersheds (<1.5 km2) following the Station fire, suggesting hydrologic changes detected here can be applied to lower-order watersheds. Hydraulic roughness, nc, was lowest in the first year following the fire, but increased by a factor of 2 after 1 year of recovery. Post-fire observations suggest changes in nc are due to changes in grain roughness and vegetation in channels. These results provide quantitative constraints on the magnitude of fire-induced hydrologic changes following severe wildfires in chaparral-dominated ecosystems as well as the timing of hydrologic recovery. 相似文献
Folds are marvellous features of mountain terrains, but despite extensive research, many fundamental problems have still not been solved. In terrains of sandstone, fold hinges are rarely straight lines but curved, forming a pattern characterized by doubly plunging, elliptical dome‐and‐basin structures. Such structures are an obvious manifestation of coeval or successive shortening deformation in two orthogonal principal directions in the horizontal plane. Based on an anatomic investigation of the fold pattern of sandstone beds at the rocky beaches of Saint‐Jean‐Port‐Joli (Quebec, Canada), we propose that the doubly plunging folds may result from a transition from a plane deformation to a constrictional deformation due to auxetic effects of quartz‐rich rocks. The sandstone beds possessed potentially such negative values of Poisson's ratio that, when placed under compression in one direction, they become contracted in the transverse direction, producing a series of doubly plunging folds. Further work is needed to approve or disapprove the interpretation. 相似文献
Boron is an essential, widely used, micronutrient element and is abundant in salt lakes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The origin and distribution of boron brine deposits on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is an important foundation for B resource formation, evolution, and enrichment, which have long been the subject of debate. The boron isotope system is a sensitive geochemical tracer, making it useful for effectively and precisely tracking a wide range of geological processes and sources. This study investigates the major cations, [B], and δ11B values of samples (lake brine, river waters, and cold spring water) from the Bangor Co Lake which is a typical salt lake rich in boron in Tibet, China. There are magnitude-scale differences in [B] among different sample types: river samples < cold spring water < < brine lakes. [B] values vary from 0.73 to ~ 1113 mg/L. Similar to [B], the δ11B values of the samples exhibit magnitude-scale variations as [B], ranging from − 7.35‰ to + 7.66‰. There are also magnitude-scale differences in δ11B among different sample types. The δ11B values of cold spring water are relatively low, and the values range from − 1.26‰ to -7.75‰. However, the river water samples and saline lakes have higher values, from 0.38‰ to 4.62‰, and the δ11B values of river water samples are basically in the distribution range of those of Bangor Co Lake. This indicates that the sources of boron in Bangor Co Lake are mainly the recharge water with higher δ11B values and spring water with lower δ11B values, and the boron sources and the uneven mixing of lake water are two reasons that account for the large change in the δ11B value of Bangor Co Lake.