A new scenario framework for climate change research: background,process, and future directions

The scientific community is developing new global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes that could pose risks to human and natural systems; how these changes could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; and the relationship of future climate change adaptation and mitigation policy responses with sustainable development. This paper provides the background to and process of developing the conceptual framework for these scenarios, as described in the three subsequent papers in this Special Issue (Van Vuuren et al., 2013; O’Neill et al., 2013; Kriegler et al., Submitted for publication in this special issue). The paper also discusses research needs to further develop, apply, and revise this framework in an iterative and open-ended process. A key goal of the framework design and its future development is to facilitate the collaboration of climate change researchers from a broad range of perspectives and disciplines to develop policy- and decision-relevant scenarios and explore the challenges and opportunities human and natural systems could face with additional climate change.     

The role of technology for achieving climate policy objectives: overview of the EMF 27 study on global technology and climate policy strategies

This article presents the synthesis of results from the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum Study 27, an inter-comparison of 18 energy-economy and integrated assessment models. The study investigated the importance of individual mitigation options such as energy intensity improvements, carbon capture and storage (CCS), nuclear power, solar and wind power and bioenergy for climate mitigation. Limiting the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration to 450 or 550 ppm CO₂ equivalent by 2100 would require a decarbonization of the global energy system in the 21^st century. Robust characteristics of the energy transformation are increased energy intensity improvements and the electrification of energy end use coupled with a fast decarbonization of the electricity sector. Non-electric energy end use is hardest to decarbonize, particularly in the transport sector. Technology is a key element of climate mitigation. Versatile technologies such as CCS and bioenergy are found to be most important, due in part to their combined ability to produce negative emissions. The importance of individual low-carbon electricity technologies is more limited due to the many alternatives in the sector. The scale of the energy transformation is larger for the 450 ppm than for the 550 ppm CO₂e target. As a result, the achievability and the costs of the 450 ppm target are more sensitive to variations in technology availability.     

RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2��C

The RCP2.6 emission and concentration pathway is representative of the literature on mitigation scenarios aiming to limit the increase of global mean temperature to 2°C. These scenarios form the low end of the scenario literature in terms of emissions and radiative forcing. They often show negative emissions from energy use in the second half of the 21st century. The RCP2.6 scenario is shown to be technically feasible in the IMAGE integrated assessment modeling framework from a medium emission baseline scenario, assuming full participation of all countries. Cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases from 2010 to 2100 need to be reduced by 70% compared to a baseline scenario, requiring substantial changes in energy use and emissions of non-CO₂ gases. These measures (specifically the use of bio-energy and reforestation measures) also have clear consequences for global land use. Based on the RCP2.6 scenario, recommendations for further research on low emission scenarios have been formulated. These include the response of the climate system to a radiative forcing peak, the ability of society to achieve the required emission reduction rates given political and social inertia and the possibilities to further reduce emissions of non-CO₂ gases.     

Climate impact of transportation A model comparison

Transportation contributes to a significant and rising share of global energy use and GHG emissions. Therefore modeling future travel demand, its fuel use, and resulting CO₂ emission is highly relevant for climate change mitigation. In this study we compare the baseline projections for global service demand (passenger-kilometers, ton-kilometers), fuel use, and CO₂ emissions of five different global transport models using harmonized input assumptions on income and population. For four models we also evaluate the impact of a carbon tax. All models project a steep increase in service demand over the century. Technology change is important for limiting energy consumption and CO₂ emissions, the study also shows that in order to stabilise or even decrease emissions radical changes would be required. While all models project liquid fossil fuels dominating up to 2050, they differ regarding the use of alternative fuels (natural gas, hydrogen, biofuels, and electricity), because of different fuel price projections. The carbon tax of 200 USD/tCO₂ in 2050 stabilizes or reverses global emission growth in all models. Besides common findings many differences in the model assumptions and projections indicate room for further understanding long-term trends and uncertainty in future transport systems.     

Spectroscopic Observations of the 2011 Draconids Meteor Shower

Some past October Draconid shower meteoroids fell apart in a spray of fragments at the end of their trajectory before slowing down, from which it was concluded that these were among the most fragile meteoroids known. In those instances, the dust could not be reliably traced to a particular return of the parent comet 21P/Giaconini-Zinner. On October 8th, 2011, Earth was predicted to transverse the 1900 A.D. dust ejecta of the comet. In 1900, the comet’s perihelion distance first moved significantly inwards to the Sun and ejection conditions could have been unusual. An airborne observing campaign was organized, with several teams contributing imaging and spectrographic cameras to study the manner in which these meteoroids released the volatile element sodium during the ablation process in the Earth’s atmosphere. IMCCE, ESA, and the SETI Institute contributed spectrographic cameras based on low-light WATEC 902H2 Ultimate, low-light LCC1, and GenII XX1332 image intensified cameras. An outburst was observed, much as predicted. Despite a lack of bright meteors, a total of 15 Draconid spectra were recorded. All show evidence of an early release of sodium. The loss of sodium was observed to coincide with the formation of a distinct wake of fragments. The observations show that 21P/Giacobini-Zinner ejected fragile meteoroids during the return in 1900. Those grains may have lost some sodium even before impacting Earth.     

TOF‐SIMS analysis of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in Allan Hills 84001

Abstract— The presence of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the Martian meteorite Allan Hills 84001 (ALH 84001) was considered to be a major sign of ancient biogenic activity on planet Mars (McKay et al. 1996). An asserted spatial association of PAHs with carbonates, carriers of so‐called nanofossils, was crucial for their suggested connection to early life forms. Although both observations can be explained individually without employing living organisms, a lateral correlation of PAHs and carbonates would suggest a genetic link between PAHs and the microstructures, favoring a biogenic explanation. On the other hand, without such a correlation, a biogenic or even a Martian origin of the PAHs cannot be inferred. Here we show that there is no correlation of PAHs and carbonates in ALH 84001. Furthermore, a general trend of high PAH concentrations at locations where terrestrial lead is present obviously suggests a terrestrial origin for PAHs in ALH 84001.     

Consistent estimation of geodetic parameters from SLR satellite constellation measurements

In this paper, we consistently estimate geodetic parameters such as weekly 3-D station coordinates, Earth orientation parameters (EOP) including daily x/y-pole coordinates and the excess length of day \(\Delta \hbox {LOD}\), and selected weekly Earth’s gravitational field (Stokes) coefficients up to degree and order 6 from Satellite Laser Ranging measurements to up to 11 geodetic satellites. The SLR constellation consists of LAGEOS-1/2, Etalon-1/2, Stella, Starlette, Ajisai, Larets, LARES, BLITS and WESTPAC, and its observations cover a time span of 38 years ranging from February 16, 1979, to April 30, 2017. If multiple satellites with various altitudes and orbit inclinations are combined, correlations between estimated parameters are significantly reduced. This allows us (i) to investigate the ability of satellite constellations to reduce existing correlations and (ii) to estimate reliable parameters with higher precision compared to the standard 4-satellite constellation (LAGEOS-1/2, Etalon-1/2) which is currently used by the International Laser Ranging Service for the determination of the Terrestrial Reference Frame (TRF) and EOP products. In particular, the Stokes coefficients, EOP and TRF datum parameters (three translations, three rotations, one scale factor), which are highly correlated with satellite-specific orbit parameters, are improved. From our investigations, we found for an 11-satellite solution compared to the above-mentioned 4-satellite solution a decrease in the scatter of the TRF datum parameters of up to 37%, the transformation residuals are decreased by up to 22%, the scatter of the EOP is decreased by up to 22%, and their mean values are decreased by up to 84% w.r.t. the reference solutions. The largest improvement is obtained for the Stokes coefficients which significantly benefit from a combination of multiple satellites (inclinations and orbit altitudes). In total, single coefficients are improved by up to 93% and the overall improvement is up to 74%. Moreover, it could be clearly identified that Ajisai significantly disturbs the TRF solution due to an erroneous center-of-mass correction. We further quantify the impact of specific satellites on the determination of different geodetic parameters and finally evaluate the potential of the existing SLR-tracked spherical satellite constellation to support the goals of GGOS.     

Experimental partitioning of halogens and other trace elements between olivine, pyroxenes, amphibole and aqueous fluid at 2 GPa and 900–1,300 °C

We present new partition coefficients for various trace elements including Cl between olivine, pyroxenes, amphibole and coexisting chlorine-bearing aqueous fluid in a series of high-pressure experiments at 2 GPa between 900 and 1,300 °C in natural and synthetic systems. Diamond aggregates were added to the experimental capsule set-up in order to separate the fluid from the solid residue and enable in situ analysis of the quenched solute by LA–ICP–MS. The chlorine and fluorine contents in mantle minerals were measured by electron microprobe, and the nature of OH defects was investigated by infrared spectroscopy. Furthermore, a fluorine-rich olivine from one selected sample was investigated by TEM. Results reveal average Cl concentrations in olivine and pyroxenes around 20 ppm and up to 900 ppm F in olivine, making olivine an important repository of halogens in the mantle. Chlorine is always incompatible with Cl partition coefficients D _Cl ^{olivine/fluid} varying between 10^?5 and 10^?3, whereas D _Cl ^{orthopyroxene/fluid} and D _Cl ^{clinopyroxene/fluid} are ~10^?4 and D _Cl ^{amphibole/fluid} is ~5 × 10^?3. Furthermore, partitioning results for incompatible trace element show that compatibilities of trace elements are generally ordered as D ^amph/fluid ≈ D ^cpx/fluid > D ^opx/fluid > D ^ol/fluid but that D ^{mineral/fluid} for Li and P is very similar for all observed silicate phases. Infrared spectra of olivine synthesized in a F-free Ti-bearing system show absorption bands at 3,525 and ~3,570 cm^?1. In F ± TiO₂-bearing systems, additional absorption bands appear at ~3,535, ~3,595, 3,640 and 3,670 cm^?1. Absorption bands at ~3,530 and ~3,570 cm^?1, previously assigned to humite-like point defects, profit from low synthesis temperatures and the presence of F. The presence of planar defects could not be proved by TEM investigations, but dislocations in the olivine lattice were observed and are suggested to be an important site for halogen incorporation in olivine.     

What causes the spread of model projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change in response to greenhouse gas forcing?

Sea levels of different atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond to climate change forcing in different ways, representing a crucial uncertainty in climate change research. We isolate the role of the ocean dynamics in setting the spatial pattern of dynamic sea-level (ζ) change by forcing several AOGCMs with prescribed identical heat, momentum (wind) and freshwater flux perturbations. This method produces a ζ projection spread comparable in magnitude to the spread that results from greenhouse gas forcing, indicating that the differences in ocean model formulation are the cause, rather than diversity in surface flux change. The heat flux change drives most of the global pattern of ζ change, while the momentum and water flux changes cause locally confined features. North Atlantic heat uptake causes large temperature and salinity driven density changes, altering local ocean transport and ζ. The spread between AOGCMs here is caused largely by differences in their regional transport adjustment, which redistributes heat that was already in the ocean prior to perturbation. The geographic details of the ζ change in the North Atlantic are diverse across models, but the underlying dynamic change is similar. In contrast, the heat absorbed by the Southern Ocean does not strongly alter the vertically coherent circulation. The Arctic ζ change is dissimilar across models, owing to differences in passive heat uptake and circulation change. Only the Arctic is strongly affected by nonlinear interactions between the three air-sea flux changes, and these are model specific.