Landscape-scale analysis of ecosystem risk and returns: A new tool for ICZM

Management of the coastal zone often focuses on “islands” of high value ecosystems, in terms of economic value or conservation. However, integrated management requires landscape-level analysis of all ecosystem values. The biodiversity portfolio analysis (BPA) method is derived from the logic used in share (equity) portfolio management in terms of balancing within a portfolio the returns with the risks. Optimising the returns from a share portfolio, or a suite of ecosystems in a landscape, is dependent on the relationship between the units in terms of risk and return. Three case studies are then presented to test the applicability of the BPA method at the international (North West Europe), regional (Durham Heritage Coast, UK) and local (part of South Uist, Outer Hebrides, UK) spatial scale. The Biodiversity Portfolio Analysis for NW Europe showed that risk and return were highly correlated in the studied Member States. The ranking of risk and return, with the highest first, was Ireland > UK > France=Netherlands > Belgium. For these Member States the risks to ecosystem service provision were positively correlated with GNI (r=0.97, P<0.01); suggesting that the higher the economic importance of coastal and marine resources in a Member State the more at risk the resources are. The regional and local case studies were more focussed on providing information on which to base Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) decision making; both case studies used stakeholder participation to determine risks and returns. The conclusions from these two case studies show how the BPA method can be useful in terms of setting ICZM priorities and in addressing local coastal issues. The BPA involves making a number of assumptions, however, it does provide coastal managers with a potential tool to strategically plan due to increased awareness of the interaction between the ecosystems in the portfolio.There is a need for such techniques, which involve stakeholder participation and which create objective outcomes, to support the implementation of ICZM.     

The structure and evolution of the coastal migrant fishery of Kenya

The current study was carried out over a period of one year to characterise the coastal migrant fishery of Kenya. The study looked at gears and vessels used, and ownership, demographic factors including ages of the fishers and family sizes, migrant activity and resource conservation at two main fishing villages in Kenya; Vanga and Mayungu in the south and north coasts, straddling at 4.663°S and 39.215°E and 3.214°S and 40.135°E respectively. Further, the fishers were categorised with regard to fishing, gear and vessel operation and trade, and evolution upon entry into the fishery was also assessed in order to define fisher-stake in the fishery for resource management and conservation planning. Structured questionnaires were used to interview the fishers, and data and information recorded from 1018 fishers during the survey. Migrants accounted for over 63% of the fishers in the two study sites, with majority of the fishers lying in the 15–45 year age bracket. Dependence level averages at 4–6 person families per fisher. Entry to the fishery was mainly at seamen level, progressing to fishermen and finally to fish dealers (tajiris), with the latter holding >62% capital in the fishery. Resource management in the fishery was low and only 10% of the fishers were active participants in marine conservation and community beach management issues. Fisher migrations were mainly monsoon season-linked (>58%) although social factors such as family location determined to a great extent the expanse of the migrations. The revival of fisheries cooperatives and active participation in community resource management and conservation groups is envisaged as the key to the sustainability of both the marine resources and the economies associated with this high mobility, cross-border fishery.     

Effects of kelp Ecklonia maxima inclusion in formulated feed on the growth,feed utilisation and gut microbiota of South African abalone Haliotis midae

The effect of kelp Ecklonia maxima inclusion in formulated feeds on abalone growth and gut bacterial communities has not been previously investigated in South Africa. An eight-month on-farm growth trial was conducted with sub-adult Haliotis midae (～43 mm shell length) fed graded levels of kelp in formulated feeds. Kelp inclusion (0.44–3.54% of pellet dry mass) promoted faster growth (65.7–74.5% total mass gain), with better feed and protein conversions (apparent feed conversion ratio [FCR] 1.4–1.8, apparent protein efficiency ratio [PER] 2.3–2.7), as compared with the non-supplemented feed (52.3% total mass gain, FCR 2.1, PER 1.9; p < 0.001). Abalone-gut bacterial DNA was sequenced using 16S rRNA gene pyrosequencing and the sequences were clustered into operational taxonomic units (OTUs) at a 97% similarity level. A supplementary 16S rRNA gene denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) analysis was employed. The dominant OTUs differed in terms of their relative abundances, with an autochthonous Mycoplasma strain being significantly more abundant (p = 0.03) in the gut of abalone fed a kelp-supplemented feed. The DGGE band patterns displayed higher within-group variability for abalone fed the control diet, suggesting that dietary kelp inclusion promotes gut-bacteria homeostasis. This may contribute to better feed utilisation and growth in abalone fed kelp-supplemented feeds.     

Grain-size trends, basin subsidence and sediment supply in the Campanian Castlegate Sandstone and equivalent conglomerates of central Utah

Reconstructions of grain-size trends in alluvial deposits can be used to understand the dominant controls on stratal architecture in a foreland basin. Different initial values of sediment supply, tectonic subsidence and base-level rise are investigated to constrain their influence on stratal geometry using the observed grain-size trends as a proxy of the goodness of fit of the numerical results to the observed data. Detailed measurements of grain-size trends, palaeocurrent indicators, facies and thickness trends, channel geometries and palynological analyses were compiled for the middle Campanian Castlegate Sandstone of the Book Cliffs and its conglomerate units in the Gunnison and Wasatch plateaus of central Utah. They define the initial conditions for a numerical study of the interactions between large-scale foreland basin and small-scale sediment transport processes. From previous studies, the proximal foreland deposits are interpreted as recording a middle Campanian thrusting event along the Sevier orogenic belt, while the stratal architecture in the Book Cliffs region is interpreted to be controlled by eustatic fluctuation with local tectonic influence. Model results of stratal geometry, using a subsidence curve with a maximum rate of ≈45 m Myr^?1 for the northern Wasatch Plateau region predict the observed grain-size trends through the northern Book Cliffs. A subsidence curve with a maximum rate of ≈30 m Myr^?1 in the Gunnison–Wasatch Plateaus best reproduces the observed grain-size trends in the southern transect through the southern Wasatch Plateau. Eustasy is commonly cited as controlling Castlegate deposition east of the Book Cliffs region. A eustatic rise of 45 m Myr^?1 produces grain-size patterns that are similar to the observed, but a rate of eustatic rise based on Haq et al. (1988) will not produce the observed stratal architecture or grain-size trends. Tectonic subsidence alone, or a combined rate of tectonic subsidence and a Haq et al. (1988) eustatic rise, can explain the stratal and grain-size variations in the proximal and downstream regions.     

Long-term persistence of solar activity

The solar irradiante has been found to change by 0.1% over the recent solar cycle. A change of irradiante of about 0.5% is required to effect the Earth's climate. How frequently can a variation of this size be expected? We examine the question of the persistence of non-periodic variations in solar activity. The Hürst exponent, which characterizes the persistence of a time series (Mandelbrot and Wallis, 1969), is evaluated for the series of¹⁴ C data for the time interval from about 6000 BC to 1950 AD (Stuiver and Pearson, 1986). We find a constant Hürst exponent, suggesting that solar activity in the frequency range of from 100 to 3000 years includes an important continuum component in addition to the well-known periodic variations. The value we calculate,H ≈ 0.8, is significantly larger than the value of 0.5 that would correspond to variations produced by a white-noise process. This value is in good agreement with the results for the monthly sunspot data reported elsewhere, indicating that the physics that produces the continuum is a correlated random process (Ruzmaikin et al., 1992), and that it is the same type of process over a wide range of time interval lengths. We conclude that the time period over which an irradiance change of 0.5% can be expected to occur is significantly shorter than that which would be expected for variations produced by a white-noise process. The full paper has been submitted to Solar Physics. Part of the research decribed here was carried out by JPL, Caltech under a contract with NASA.     

A test of the precursory accelerating moment release model on some recent New Zealand earthquakes

The proposal that the moment release rate increases in a systematic way in a large region around a forthcoming large earthquake is tested using three recent, large New Zealand events. The three events, 1993–1995, magnitudes 6.7–7.0, occurred in varied tectonic settings. For all three events, a circular precursory region can be found such that the moment release rate of the included seismicity is modelled significantly better by the proposed accelerating model than by a linear moment release model, although in one case the result is dubious. The 'best' such regions have radii from 122 to 167 km, roughly in accord with previous observations world-wide, but are offset by 50–60 km from the associated main shock epicentre. A grid-search procedure is used to test whether these three earthquakes could have been forecast using the accelerating moment release model. For two of the earthquakes the result is positive in terms of location, but the main shock times are only loosely constrained.     

Analysis of some aromatic hydrocarbons in a benzene-soluble bitumen from Green River shale

The hydrocarbon content of an aromatic fraction, isolated from the bitumen of Green River shale, was studied by mass spectrometry, infra-red spectrometry, gas chromatography and a dehydrogenation technique. The hydrocarbon types and their distribution in this aromatic fraction, as determined by mass spectrometry, include the following: C_nH_2n?6(10%), C_nH_{2n?8 (31 %)}, C_nH_2n?10(18%), C_nH_2n?12(12%), C_nH_2n?14(8%) and a series of alkenylbenzenes (20%). The carbon-number range, empirical formulae and quantity of each compound in the major types are reported. Mass spectra of several compounds and homologous mixtures of compounds isolated from the aromatic fraction are also given.     

Tuning a physically-based model of the air–sea gas transfer velocity

Air–sea gas transfer velocities are estimated for one year using a 1-D upper-ocean model (GOTM) and a modified version of the NOAA–COARE transfer velocity parameterization. Tuning parameters are evaluated with the aim of bringing the physically based NOAA–COARE parameterization in line with current estimates, based on simple wind-speed dependent models derived from bomb-radiocarbon inventories and deliberate tracer release experiments. We suggest that A = 1.3 and B = 1.0, for the sub-layer scaling parameter and the bubble mediated exchange, respectively, are consistent with the global average CO₂ transfer velocity k. Using these parameters and a simple 2nd order polynomial approximation, with respect to wind speed, we estimate a global annual average k for CO₂ of 16.4 ± 5.6 cm h^?1 when using global mean winds of 6.89 m s^?1 from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 1954–2000. The tuned model can be used to predict the transfer velocity of any gas, with appropriate treatment of the dependence on molecular properties including the strong solubility dependence of bubble-mediated transfer. For example, an initial estimate of the global average transfer velocity of DMS (a relatively soluble gas) is only 11.9 cm h^?1 whilst for less soluble methane the estimate is 18.0 cm h^?1.     

Diurnal SST warming in the Bay of Biscay: satellite measurements and model prediction

INTRODUCTIONIt has long been recognized that a diurnal thermal cycle occurs in the upper layer of the ocean(Stommel et al., 1969; Price and Weller, 1986). Interest in the subject has revived in recentyears due to the importance of resolving the diurnal cycle for correctly coupling the ocean and atmosphere (Lukas, 1991 ). While the study of the diurnal cycle is of intrinsic scientific interest, italso offers the benefit to remote sensing scientists of identifying the bias caused by the di…