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Seasonal prediction of global sea level anomalies using an ocean–atmosphere dynamical model

Advanced warning of extreme sea level events is an invaluable tool for coastal communities, allowing the implementation of management policies and strategies to minimise loss of life and infrastructure damage. This study is an initial attempt to apply a dynamical coupled ocean–atmosphere model to the prediction of seasonal sea level anomalies (SLA) globally for up to 7 months in advance. We assess the ability of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s operational seasonal dynamical forecast system, the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), to predict seasonal SLA, using gridded satellite altimeter observation-based analyses over the period 1993–2010 and model reanalysis over 1981–2010. Hindcasts from POAMA are based on a 33-member ensemble of seasonal forecasts that are initialised once per month for the period 1981–2010. Our results show POAMA demonstrates high skill in the equatorial Pacific basin and consistently exhibits more skill globally than a forecast based on persistence. Model predictability estimates indicate there is scope for improvement in the higher latitudes and in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans. Most characteristics of the asymmetric SLA fields generated by El-Nino/La Nina events are well represented by POAMA, although the forecast amplitude weakens with increasing lead-time.     

Semantically Enriching an Open Source Sensor Observation Service Implementation for Accessing Heterogeneous Environmental Data Sources

Many kinds of environmental data are nowadays publicly available, but spread over the web. This article discusses using the Sensor Observation Service (SOS) standard of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) as a common interface for providing data from heterogeneous sources which can be integrated to a user tailored environmental information system. In order to allow for providing user‐tailored and problem‐specific information the adjusted SOS is augmented by a semantic layer which maps the environmental information to ontology concepts. The necessary information fusion from different domains and data types lead to several specific requirements for the SOS. Addressing these requirements we have implemented a SOS which still conforms to the OGC SOS 1.0.0 standard specification. The developed SOS has been integrated in a publicly available demonstrator of our personalized environmental information system. Additionally this article discusses future consequences for the SOS, caused by the recently published SOS 2.0 specification.     

Ion contribution to the astrophysical important 388.86, 471.32 and 501.56 nm He I spectral lines broadening

Characteristics of the astrophysical important Stark broadened 388.86 nm, 471.32 nm and 501.56 nm He I spectral line profiles have been measured at electron densities between 4.4·10²² and 8.2·10²² m⁻³ and electron temperatures between 18,000 and 33,000 K in plasmas created in five various discharge conditions using a linear, low-pressure, pulsed arc as an optically thin and reproductive plasma source operated in a helium–nitrogen–oxygen gas mixture. On the basis of the observed asymmetry of the line profiles, we have obtained their ion broadening parameters (A) caused by influence of the ion microfield and also the influence of the ion dynamic effect (D) to the line shape. Our A and D parameters represent the first data obtained experimentally by the use of the line profile deconvolution procedure. We have found stronger influence of the ion contribution to these He I line profiles than the semiclassical theoretical approximation provides. This can be important for some astrophysical plasma modelling or for diagnostics.     

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Assessing the impact of the hydraulic properties of a crusted soil on overland flow modelling at the field scale

Soil surface crusts are widely reported to favour Hortonian runoff, but are not explicitly represented in most rainfall‐runoff models. The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of soil surface crusts on infiltration and runoff modelling at two spatial scales, i.e. the local scale and the plot scale. At the local scale, two separate single ring infiltration experiments are undertaken. The first is performed on the undisturbed soil, whereas the second is done after removal of the soil surface crust. The HYDRUS 2D two‐dimensional vertical infiltration model is then used in an inverse modelling approach, first to estimate the soil hydraulic properties of the crust and the subsoil, and then the effective hydraulic properties of the soil represented as a single uniform layer. The results show that the crust hydraulic conductivity is 10 times lower than that of the subsoil, thus illustrating the limiting role the crust has on infiltration. Moving up to the plot scale, a rainfall‐runoff model coupling the Richards equation to a transfer function is used to simulate Hortonian overland flow hydrographs. The previously calculated hydraulic properties are used, and a comparison is undertaken between a single‐layer and a double‐layer representation of the crusted soil. The results of the rainfall‐runoff model show that the soil hydraulic properties calculated at the local scale give acceptable results when used to model runoff at the plot scale directly, without any numerical calibration. Also, at the plot scale, no clear improvement of the results can be seen when using a double‐layer representation of the soil in comparison with a single homogeneous layer. This is due to the hydrological characteristics of Hortonian runoff, which is triggered by a rainfall intensity exceeding the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil surface. Consequently, the rainfall‐runoff model is more sensitive to rainfall than to the subsoil's hydrodynamic properties. Therefore, the use of a double‐layer soil model to represent runoff on a crusted soil does not seem necessary, as the increase of precision in the soil discretization is not justified by a better performance of the model. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

DEPENDENCE BETWEEN FUSION TEMPERATURES AND CHEMICAL COMPONENTS OF A CERTAIN TYPE OF COAL USING CLASSICAL,NON-PARAMETRIC AND BOOTSTRAP TECHNIQUES

A statistical study of the dependence between various critical fusion temperatures of a certain kind ofcoal and its chemical components is carried out.As well as using classical dependence techniques(multiple,stepwise and PLS regression,principal components,canonical correlation,etc.)together withthe corresponding inference on the parameters of interest,non-parametric regression and bootstrapinference are also performed.     

The Mineral Adsorption and The Application of a Metamorphic Felsic Rock as Aggregate in Asphalt Pavements

Geotechnical and Geological Engineering - The aggregates consist approximately 85% of the total volume in asphalts pavements, and their properties influence directly their behavior. Therefore, it...     

The UNFCCC as a negotiation forum: towards common but more differentiated responsibilities

The principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDRC) captures the idea that it is the common responsibility of states to protect and restore the environment but that the levels and forms of states’ individual responsibilities may be differentiated according to their own national circumstances. This principle has shaped the evolution of the climate regime and has played an important role in promoting compromise and agreement. It is argued that some twenty years after the adoption of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the principle of CBDRC remains as relevant as ever. The practice of Parties under the regime and, most recently, the concerted efforts to shape and flesh out the meaning of the principle, underscore the central role that it plays. At the same time, the binary understanding of CBDRC in the Kyoto Protocol is being replaced with a more nuanced, multifaceted understanding. The evolving interpretation of CBDRC is considered, and its continued relevance as the nucleus of a global burden-sharing regime for addressing climate change is demonstrated.

Policy relevance

The development of a common understanding of the principle of CBDRC is essential for the burden sharing and responsibilities under a future climate agreement. The CBDRC principle captures the idea that it is the common responsibility of states to protect and restore the environment, but that the levels and forms of states’ individual responsibilities may be differentiated according to their own national circumstances. This article informs the international climate change negotiations by considering the development of the principle of CBDRC under the UNFCCC over time. It is concluded that, although there has been a significant shift in how the principle is understood, it remains crucial to the integrity and stability of the climate regime.