Earthquake shaking probabilities for communities on Vancouver Island,British Columbia,Canada

Comprehensive risk assessments are fundamental to effective emergency management. These assessments need to identify the range of hazards (or perils) an entity is exposed to and quantify the specific threats associated with each of those hazards. While hazard identification is commonly, if not formally, conducted in most circumstances, specific threat analysis is often overlooked for a variety of reasons, one of which is poor communication with subject matter experts. This poor communication is often attributable to an adherence to scientific jargon and missed opportunities to simplify information. In Canada, for example, earthquake hazard calculations have been readily available to engineers and scientists for decades. This hazard information, however, is expressed in terms of peak ground accelerations (PGA) or spectral accelerations (SA) that are foreign concepts to most emergency managers, community decision-makers and the public-at-large. There is, therefore, a need to more clearly, simply and effectively express seismic hazard information to the non-scientific community. This paper provides crustal, sub-crustal and subduction interface earthquake shaking probabilities, expressed as simple percentages for each of 57 locations across Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada. Calculations present the likelihood of earthquake shaking on Vancouver Island as the probabilities of exceeding each of three shaking intensity thresholds (“widely felt”; onset of “non-structurally damaging” shaking; and onset of “structurally damaging” shaking) over four timeframes (10, 25, 50 and 100 years). Results are based on the latest Geological Survey of Canada hazard models used for the 2010 national building code and are presented in both tabular and graphic formats. This simplified earthquake hazard information is offered to aid local residents, organizations and governments in understanding and assessing their risk and to encourage and facilitate sound earthquake preparedness funding decisions.     

Crystal reaming during the assembly, maturation, and waning of an eleven-million-year crustal magma cycle: thermobarometry of the Aucanquilcha Volcanic Cluster

Phenocryst assemblages of lavas from the long-lived Aucanquilcha Volcanic Cluster (AVC) have been probed to assess pressure and temperature conditions of pre-eruptive arc magmas. Andesite to dacite lavas of the AVC erupted throughout an 11-million-year, arc magmatic cycle in the central Andes in northern Chile. Phases targeted for thermobarometry include amphibole, plagioclase, pyroxenes, and Fe–Ti oxides. Overall, crystallization is documented over 1–7.5 kbar (~25 km) of pressure and ~680–1,110 °C of temperature. Pressure estimates range from ~1 to 5 kbar for amphiboles and from ~3 to 7.5 kbar for pyroxenes. Pyroxene temperatures are tightly clustered from ~1,000–1,100 °C, Fe–Ti oxide temperatures range from ~750–1,000 °C, and amphibole temperatures range from ~780–1,050 °C. Although slightly higher, these temperatures correspond well with previously published zircon temperatures ranging from ~670–900 °C. Two different Fe–Ti oxide thermometers (Andersen and Lindsley 1985; Ghiorso and Evans 2008) are compared and agree well. We also compare amphibole and amphibole–plagioclase thermobarometers (Ridolfi et al. 2010; Holland and Blundy 1994; Anderson and Smith 1995), the solutions from which do not agree well. In samples where we employ multiple thermometers, pyroxene temperature estimates are always highest, zircon temperature estimates are lowest, and Fe–Ti oxide and amphibole temperature estimates fall in between. Maximum Fe–Ti oxide and zircon temperatures are observed during the middle stage of AVC activity (~5–3 Ma), a time associated with increased eruption rates. Amphibole temperatures during this time are relatively restricted (~850–1,000 °C). The crystal record presented here offers a time-transgressive view of an evolving, multi-tiered subvolcanic reservoir. Some crystals in AVC lavas are likely to be true phenocrysts, but the diversity of crystallization temperatures and pressures recorded by phases in individual AVC lavas suggests erupting magma extensively reams and accumulates crystals from disparate levels of the middle to upper crust.     

Effects of changing land use on the microbial water quality of tidal creeks

Population growth along the southeastern United States coast has precipitated the conversion of forested watersheds to suburban and urban ones. This study sampled creeks representing forested, suburban, and urban watersheds along a longitudinal gradient for indicators of water quality, including traditional indicator bacteria (fecal coliforms and enterococci) and alternative viral indicators (male-specific and somatic coliphages). Tested microorganisms were generally distributed with highest concentrations in creek headwaters and in more developed watersheds. The headwaters also showed the strongest predictive relationship between indicator concentrations and urbanization as measured by impervious cover. A seasonal pattern was observed for indicator bacteria but not for indicator viruses. Coliphage typing indicated the likely source of contamination was nonhuman. Results suggest that headwater creeks can serve as sentinel habitat, signaling early warning of public health concerns from land-based anthropogenic activities. This study also implies the potential to eventually forecast indicator concentrations under land use change scenarios.     

Responses of tidal creek macrobenthic communities to the effects of watershed development

This study examined the effects of watershed development on macrobenthic communities in tidal creeks of Charleston Harbor, South Carolina, U.S. Two types of creeks were evaluated: upland creeks which drained watersheds consisting of at least 15% terrestrial land cover, and salt marsh creeks which drained no upland habitat (i.e., only intertidal habitat). Samples of macrobenthic organisms were taken along the longitudinal axis of twenty-three primary (first order) tidal creeks. Water and sediment quality data were also collected including measurements of dissolved oxygen, salinity, temperature, sediment characteristics, and toxic chemicals in the creek sediments. Hypoxic conditions occurred more than 15% of the time in both reference and developed creeks and were a natural attribute of these systems. The most severe and frequent hypoxia occurred in impacted salt marsh creeks. Salinity fluctuations were the greatest in developed upland creeks and salinity range was identified as a potentially reliable indicator of the degree to which watershed development has altered hydrodynamic processes. The creeks draining urban and industrial watersheds were degraded environments characterized by watersheds with high (>50%) levels of impervious surface, broad fluctuations in salinity, severe hypoxia, and potentially toxic levels of chemicals in the sediment. These creeks had low macrobenthic diversity and abundance and were numerically dominated by the oligochaeteMonopylephorus rubroniveus in mud sediments, and the polychaeteLaeoreis culveri in sand sediments. Suburban watersheds had 15–35% impervious surface and creeks draining them were exposed to frequent hypoxia and broad salinity fluctuations. The levels of chemical contaminants in sediments of suburban and impacted salt marsh creeks were generally not different from the levels in reference creeks. Macrobenthic diversity and abundance were higher for suburban and impacted salt marsh creeks than for urban and industrial creeks. However, suburban and salt marsh impacted creeks were numerically dominated by a few pollution indicative species including the oligochaetesM. rubroniveus andTubificoides brownae and the polychaeteL. culveri. These creeks appear to be exhibiting early signs of degradation (e.g., a simplified food web). Two promising community-level macrobenthic metrics for assessing environmental quality were identified: the proportional abundance of pollution indicative taxa, and the proportional abundance of pollution sensitive taxa. These indicators were significantly (p<0.05) correlated with the salinity range, the level of chemical contaminants in sediments, and amount of impervious surface in the watershed.     

Top-down and bottom-up modelling to support low-carbon scenarios: climate policy implications

Bottom-up and top-down models are used to support climate policies, to identify the options required to meet GHG abatement targets and to evaluate their economic impact. Some studies have shown that the GHG mitigation options provided by economic top-down and technological bottom-up models tend to vary. One reason for this is that these models tend to use different baseline scenarios. The bottom-up TIMES_PT and the top-down computable general equilibrium GEM-E3_PT models are examined using a common baseline scenario to calibrate them, and the extend of their different mitigation options and its relevant to domestic policy making are assessed. Three low-carbon scenarios for Portugal until 2050 are generated, each with different GHG reduction targets. Both models suggest close mitigation options and locate the largest mitigation potential to energy supply. However, the models suggest different mitigation options for the end-use sectors: GEM-E3_PT focuses more on energy efficiency, while TIMES_PT relies on decrease carbon intensity due to a shift to electricity. Although a common baseline scenario cannot be ignored, the models’ inherent characteristics are the main factor for the different outcomes, thereby highlighting different mitigation options.

Policy relevance

The relevance of modelling tools used to support the design of domestic climate policies is assessed by evaluating the mitigation options suggested by a bottom-up and a top-down model. The different outcomes of each model are significant for climate policy design since each suggest different mitigation options like end-use energy efficiency and the promotion of low-carbon technologies. Policy makers should carefully select the modelling tool used to support their policies. The specific modelling structures of each model make them more appropriate to address certain policy questions than others. Using both modelling approaches for policy support can therefore bring added value and result in more robust climate policy design. Although the results are specific for Portugal, the insights provided by the analysis of both models can be extended to, and used in the climate policy decisions of, other countries.     

Turnover of oxygen and hydrogen isotopes in the body water, CO2, hair, and enamel of a small mammal

Oxygen and hydrogen isotope signatures of animal tissues are strongly correlated with the isotope signature of local precipitation and as a result, isotope signatures of tissues are commonly used to study resource utilization and migration in animals and to reconstruct climate. To better understand the mechanisms behind these correlations, we manipulated the isotope composition of the drinking water and food supplied to captive woodrats to quantify the relationships between drinking water (δ_dw), body water (δ_bw), and tissue (δ_t). Woodrats were fed an isotopically constant food but were supplied with isotopically depleted or enriched water. Some animals were switched between these waters, allowing simultaneous determination of body water turnover, isotope change recorded in teeth and hair, and fractional contributions of atmospheric O₂, drinking water, and food to the oxygen and hydrogen budgets of the animals. The half-life of the body water turnover was 3-6 days. A mass balance model estimated that drinking water, atmospheric O₂, and food were responsible for 56%, 30%, and 15% of the oxygen in the body water, respectively. Drinking water and food were responsible for 71% and 29% of the hydrogen in the body water, respectively. Published generalized models for lab rats and humans accurately estimated δ_bw, as did an updated version of a specific model for woodrats. The change in drinking water was clearly recorded in hair and tooth enamel, and multiple-pool and tooth enamel forward models closely predicted these changes in hair and enamel, respectively. Oxygen and hydrogen atoms in the drinking water strongly influence the composition of the body water and tissues such as hair and tooth enamel; however, food and atmospheric O₂ also contribute oxygen and/or hydrogen atoms to tissue. Controlled experiments allow researchers to validate models that estimate δ_t based on δ_dw and so will increase the reliability of estimates of resource utilization and climate reconstruction.     

Combination of multi-mission altimetry data along the Mekong River with spatio-temporal kriging

River water-level time series at fixed geographical locations, so-called virtual stations, have been computed from single altimeter crossings for many years. Their temporal resolution is limited by the repeat cycle of the individual altimetry missions. The combination of all altimetry measurements along a river enables computing a water-level time series with improved temporal and spatial resolutions. This study uses the geostatistical method of spatio-temporal ordinary kriging to link multi-mission altimetry data along the Mekong River. The required covariance models reflecting the water flow are estimated based on empirical covariance values between altimetry observations at various locations. In this study, two covariance models are developed and tested in the case of the Mekong River: a stationary and a non-stationary covariance model. The proposed approach predicts water-level time series at different locations along the Mekong River with a temporal resolution of 5 days. Validation is performed against in situ data from four gauging stations, yielding RMS differences between 0.82 and 1.29 m and squared correlation coefficients between 0.89 and 0.94. Both models produce comparable results when used for combining data from Envisat, Jason-1, and SARAL for the time period between 2002 and 2015. The quality of the predicted time series turns out to be robust against a possibly decreasing availability of altimetry mission data. This demonstrates that our method is able to close the data gap between the end of the Envisat and the launch of the SARAL mission with interpolated time series.     

Assessment of present and future nitrogen loads, water quality, and seagrass (Thalassia testudinum) depth distribution in Lemon Bay, Florida

Nitrogen loads into Lemon Bay, Florida were modeled to have increased ca. 59% between pre-development (i.e., 1850) estimates (5.3 kg TN ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹. and estimates for the year 1995 (8.4 kg TN ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹). By the year 2010, nitrogen loads are predicted to increase an additional 45% or 58%, depending upon progress being made toward replacing older septic tank systems with centralized sewerage (nitrogen loads of 12.2 and 13.3 kg TN ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, respectively). Using 1995 estimates, nonpoint sources (stormwater runoff) are throught to be responsible for ca. 76% of the annual nitrogen load, followed by septic tank systems (14%), rainfall (10%), and an insignificant load from baseflow. Based on an empirically-derived nitrogen load:chlorophylla relationship developed for a portion of nearby Tampa Bay, a 45% increase in nitrogen loads into Lemon Bay could result in a 29% increase in annual average chlorophylla concentrations. Using the estimate of a 29% increase in future chlorophylla concentrations, an empirically-derived optical model for Lemon Bay suggests that light attenuation coefficients in the bay would increase ca. 9%, and the average depth limit ofThalassia testudinum in Lemon Bay would decrease by ca. 24%.     

Global Calibration of SARAL/AltiKa Using Multi-Mission Sea Surface Height Crossovers

SARAL/AltiKa completed its first year in orbit in March 2014. The 1 Hz GDR-T data of the first 10 cycles of the mission are used to perform a comprehensive quality assessment by means of a global multi-mission crossover analysis. Within this approach, SARAL sea surface heights are compared with data from other current missions, mainly Jason-2 and Cryosat-2, to reveal its accuracy and consistency with the other altimeter systems. Alongside with global mean range bias and instrumental drifts, investigations on geographically correlated errors as well as on the realization of the systems origin are performed. The study proves the high quality and reliability of SARAL. The mission shows only a small range bias of about ?5 cm with respect to Jason-2 and neither significant time-tag bias nor instrumental drifts. With 1.3 cm the scatter of radial errors is in the same order of magnitude as for Cryosat-2 and Jason-1 GM and will probably further improve using an enhanced sea state bias (SSB) model. However, the wet tropospheric corrections from SARAL radiometer still show some systematic effects influencing the range bias as well as geographically correlated error patterns and the z-component of the origin. Improved inflight calibration will be necessary to overcome these effects.