Optimal Routefinding Across Landscapes Featuring High‐cost Linear Obstacles

Existing GIS‐based least‐cost routefinding approaches can in some cases be confounded by linear features in the landscape whose crossing costs are high relative to other traversing costs found throughout the landscape. Unfortunately, such high‐cost linear features are not uncommon; they frequently occur in the form of hydrologic features whose crossing costs are high relative to costs of traversing the surrounding dry land. This study (1) enumerates the situations where existing approaches can fail, (2) proposes a simple method for overcoming the limitations of the existing approaches, and (3) conducts an experiment to assess the impact of the weaknesses of existing approaches and the magnitude of the differences between the results produced by existing and revised approaches. Our results show that in mountainous terrain, linear hydrologic features with high crossing costs can have a profound impact on least‐cost routes, and the choice of solution method has equally profound impacts on the optimal route produced by the analysis.     

逆冲断层应力场的数值模拟

采用二维显式有限差分法与三维隐式有限单元法,分别计算了模型剖面上断层逆冲运动和三维断层逆冲运动伴随的断层邻域应力场。结果表明：（１）逆冲断层上盘下端部发育张应力场,下盘下端部发育压应力场;（２）对复杂的三维构造,在一定限定条件下,可以转化成二维问题进行计算;（３）显式差分法与隐式有限单元,都能较好地用接触模型模拟活动断层的应力场特征     

Use of point scale models to improve conceptual understanding in complex aquifers: An example from a sandstone aquifer in the Eden valley,Cumbria, UK

Understanding catchment functioning is increasingly important to enable water resources to be quantified and used sustainably, flood risk to be minimized, as well as to protect the system from degradation by pollution. Developing conceptual understanding of groundwater systems and their encapsulation in models is an important part of this understanding, but they are resource intensive to create and calibrate. The relative lack of data or the particular complexity of a groundwater system can prevent the development of a satisfactory conceptual understanding of the hydrological behaviour, which can be used to construct an adequate distributed model. A time series of daily groundwater levels from the Permo-Triassic sandstones situated in the River Eden Valley, Cumbria, UK have been analysed. These hydrographs show a range of behaviours and therefore have previously been studied using statistical and time series analysis techniques. This paper describes the application of AquiMOD, impulse response function (IRF) and combined AquiMOD-IRF methods to characterize the daily groundwater hydrographs. The best approach for each characteristic type of response has been determined and related to the geological and hydrogeological framework found at each borehole location. It is clear that AquiMOD, IRF and a combination of AquiMOD with IRF can be deployed to reproduce hydrograph responses in a range of hydrogeological settings. Importantly the choice of different techniques demonstrates the influence of differing processes and hydrogeological settings. Further they can distinguish the influences of differing hydrogeological environments and the impacts these have on the groundwater flow processes. They can be used, as shown in this paper, in a staged approach to help develop reliable and comprehensive conceptual models of groundwater flow. This can then be used as a solid basis for the development of distributed models, particularly as the latter are resource expensive to build and to calibrate effectively. This approach of using simple models and techniques first identifies specific aspects of catchment functioning, for example influence of the river, that can be later tested in a distributed model.     

Simulating saturation‐excess surface run‐off in a semi‐distributed hydrological model

The level of complexity, and the number of parameters, to include in a hydrological model is a relatively contentious issue in hydrological modelling. However, it can be argued that explicitly representing important run‐off generation processes can improve the practical value of a model's outputs. This paper explores the benefits of including a new function into an existing semi‐distributed hydrological model (the Pitman model) that is widely used in the sub‐Saharan Africa region. The new function was designed to represent saturation‐excess surface run‐off processes at subcatchment scales and was motivated by the evidence of dambo (low topography riparian areas) type features in many sub‐Saharan river basins. The results for uncertainty versions of the model, with and without the new function, were compared for 25 catchments, which were divided up into those where evidence of dambos exists and those where there is no such evidence. The results suggest that the new function certainly improves the model results for the catchments where dambos exist, but not in situations where saturation‐excess surface run‐off is not expected to occur. The overall conclusion is therefore that the addition of the new function is justified.     

Origin and Extent of Fresh Paleowaters on the Atlantic Continental Shelf, USA

While the existence of relatively fresh groundwater sequestered within permeable, porous sediments beneath the Atlantic continental shelf of North and South America has been known for some time, these waters have never been assessed as a potential resource. This fresh water was likely emplaced during Pleistocene sea-level low stands when the shelf was exposed to meteoric recharge and by elevated recharge in areas overrun by the Laurentide ice sheet at high latitudes. To test this hypothesis, we present results from a high-resolution paleohydrologic model of groundwater flow, heat and solute transport, ice sheet loading, and sea level fluctuations for the continental shelf from New Jersey to Maine over the last 2 million years. Our analysis suggests that the presence of fresh to brackish water within shallow Miocene sands more than 100 km offshore of New Jersey was facilitated by discharge of submarine springs along Baltimore and Hudson Canyons where these shallow aquifers crop out. Recharge rates four times modern levels were computed for portions of New England's continental shelf that were overrun by the Laurentide ice sheet during the last glacial maximum. We estimate the volume of emplaced Pleistocene continental shelf fresh water (less than 1 ppt) to be 1300 km³ in New England. We also present estimates of continental shelf fresh water resources for the U.S. Atlantic eastern seaboard (10⁴ km³) and passive margins globally (3 × 10⁵ km³). The simulation results support the hypothesis that offshore fresh water is a potentially valuable, albeit nonrenewable resource for coastal megacities faced with growing water shortages.     

Efficient ensemble forecasting of marine ecology with clustered 1D models and statistical lateral exchange: application to the Red Sea

Forecasting the state of large marine ecosystems is important for many economic and public health applications. However, advanced three-dimensional (3D) ecosystem models, such as the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM), are computationally expensive, especially when implemented within an ensemble data assimilation system requiring several parallel integrations. As an alternative to 3D ecological forecasting systems, we propose to implement a set of regional one-dimensional (1D) water-column ecological models that run at a fraction of the computational cost. The 1D model domains are determined using a Gaussian mixture model (GMM)-based clustering method and satellite chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) data. Regionally averaged Chl-a data is assimilated into the 1D models using the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter. To laterally exchange information between subregions and improve the forecasting skills, we introduce a new correction step to the assimilation scheme, in which we assimilate a statistical forecast of future Chl-a observations based on information from neighbouring regions. We apply this approach to the Red Sea and show that the assimilative 1D ecological models can forecast surface Chl-a concentration with high accuracy. The statistical assimilation step further improves the forecasting skill by as much as 50%. This general approach of clustering large marine areas and running several interacting 1D ecological models is very flexible. It allows many combinations of clustering, filtering and regression technics to be used and can be applied to build efficient forecasting systems in other large marine ecosystems.     

Estimating Pesticide Attenuation From Water Dating and the Ratio of Metabolite to Parent Compound

Although pesticides are primarily degraded in the topsoil, significant attenuation can be expected in groundwater systems where the transit time of pesticides usually are orders of magnitude longer than in the soil. Because degradation and transport processes in the subsurface take place at time scales of months to years or even decades, direct measurements of natural attenuation are hampered by practical and logistical limitations (for instance the limited duration of sampling or a correct estimation of the pesticide flux into groundwater). Indirect methods such as measuring the changes in the ratio of degradation product to parent compound as a function of transit time in the aquifer, along a flow line provide a possible alternative. This paper presents a simple mathematical formulation of the relationship between transit time in the subsurface and changes in that ratio, and allows estimating the transformation rate of both parent compound and degradation product. The applicability of the method is illustrated in a case study investigating atrazine attenuation in a fractured sandstone aquifer.     

Vehicle tax policies and new passenger car CO2 performance in EU member states

This article explores the causes for differences in the average CO₂ emissions intensity of the new passenger car (NPC) fleet in member states (MS) across Europe. Although EU policies mitigating CO₂ emissions from NPCs have been in place since 1999, MS strongly diverge in the absolute amount and relative change in emissions over the last decade. The authors employ a qualitative approach to analyse the factors, in particular national vehicle taxes, contributing to this divergence and the relative contribution of national and European policies in reducing national CO₂ emissions from NPCs. The analysis shows that there has been a significant reduction in CO₂ emissions intensity of NPCs since 2007 across most MS, compared with the six years previous to that date. This would indicate that EU-wide policies, such as the CO₂ vehicles regulation, along with the economic recession in 2008, have influenced national NPC CO₂ emissions. Generally, countries with CO₂-differentiated vehicle taxes are observed as more likely to have achieved greater reductions in CO₂ emissions. However, over the same period there have been many confounding factors, such as economic instability in the EU, that also influence NPC emissions. Using more detailed case study analyses of six countries, the authors find that there is scope for well-designed national vehicle tax policies to drive NPC emissions down further than the EU average. In countries with the highest success rate, such as the Netherlands, the design of the vehicle tax, as part of a well-aligned policy package, has been very important in delivering the biggest reductions in CO₂ emissions from NPCs.

POLICY RELEVANCE

The transport sector continues to be an intractable source of CO₂ emissions. Governments around the world are seeking effective policies to deal with the increase in passenger car CO₂ emissions appropriate to their own circumstances. This article examines the experience of EU MS with CO₂-differentiated vehicle taxes in reducing CO₂ emissions in the context of other national and international contributing factors. It should therefore both be useful to policy makers and contribute to climate policy research in general.     

Exploring vulnerability and adaptation to climate change of communities in the forest zone of Cameroon

Understanding vulnerability to the impacts of global environmental change and identifying adaptation measures to cope with these impacts require localized investigations that can help find actual and exact answers to the questions about who and what are vulnerable, to what are they vulnerable, how vulnerable are they, what are the causes of their vulnerability, and what responses can lessen their vulnerability. People living in forests are highly dependent on forest goods and services, and are vulnerable to forest changes both socially and economically. In the Congo basin, climate change effects on forest ecosystems are predicted to amplify the existing pressure on food security urging expansion of current agricultural lands at the expense of forest, biodiversity loss and socioeconomic stresses. The paper aimed at exploring vulnerability and adaptation needs to climate change of local communities in the humid forest zone of Cameroon. Field work was conducted in two forest communities in Lekié and in Yokadouma in the Center and Eastern Regions of Cameroon respectively. The assessment was done using a series of approaches including a preparatory phase, fieldwork proper, and validation of the results. Results show that: (a) the adverse effects of climate conditions to which these communities are exposed are already being felt and exerting considerable stress on most of their livelihoods resources; (b) drought, changing seasons, erratic rain patterns, heavy rainfall and strong winds are among the main climate-related disturbances perceived by populations in the project sites; (c) important social, ecological and economic processes over the past decades seemed to have shaped current vulnerability in the sites; (d) Some coping and adaptive strategies used so far are outdated; and specific adaptation needs are identified and suggestions for facilitating their long-term implementations provided.